Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 23:51 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| elmcap20xed10…d2e5 | No | 1,518 | 96.1¢ | $1.48K | Break-even+$0.78 per $100 · 2,129 bets |
| Alegrandebig0x3773…f0dd | No | 1,137 | 97.1¢ | $1.11K | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 7,087 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 1,125 | 96.2¢ | $1.1K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| GTOrski10xb3af…84fc | No | 191 | 95.8¢ | $187 | New31 settled bets |
| 6666888880xfbda…fdbb | No | 160 | 94.2¢ | $156 | — |
| wish-0x72a2…7b65 | No | 108 | 93.2¢ | $105 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 1,975 bets |
| Musk50x1229…df38 | No | 101 | 97.2¢ | $99 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 494 bets |
| seafoodcapital0xbb8b…4b1c | No | 60 | 95.0¢ | $59 | New19 settled bets |
| orbiterix0x5e2c…5dc1 | No | 40 | 96.7¢ | $39 | Losing−$2.71 per $100 · 689 bets |
| Daisy250xea8b…87a4 | No | 30 | 97.5¢ | $29 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 20 | 96.3¢ | $19 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| miya20160xbecd…f54e | No | 17 | 96.1¢ | $17 | Proven+$2.17 per $100 · 2,286 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 731 | 4.2¢ | $16 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 14,399 bets |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 15 | 96.8¢ | $15 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 646 | 6.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 635 | 2.3¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| WatchTheTape0xdd28…374a | No | 14 | 93.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.82 per $100 · 2,234 bets |
| JamesNguyen120xc440…2e0e | No | 13 | 96.2¢ | $13 | — |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 434 | 1.9¢ | $10 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 411 | 2.0¢ | $9 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| MareleMotan0x58ab…ad99 | Yes | 370 | 3.2¢ | $8 | — |
| purebaby0xe23b…f147 | Yes | 304 | 1.2¢ | $7 | — |
| DavisWilliamr0x7c08…b0d4 | No | 6 | 98.1¢ | $6 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 251 | 3.4¢ | $6 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0xea6b…988d | No | 5 | 96.3¢ | $5 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 200 | 2.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| ninasimon0x655e…e0cc | No | 3 | 97.7¢ | $3 | Losing−$5.10 per $100 · 236 bets |
| 0x34dc…d280 | No | 3 | 94.2¢ | $3 | — |
| woshiwangtian0xe2ed…1374 | Yes | 108 | 2.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x84d9…e79a | No | 2 | 97.3¢ | $2 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 75 | 3.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,445 bets |
| tiongbu0xb777…3ff9 | Yes | 61 | 7.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Ox359449186AafB044680CeF3BBe2aB4FAba7025990x3594…2599 | No | 1 | 97.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 344 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 56 | 3.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| iwishthisworks0x51a1…2335 | Yes | 54 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 51 | 2.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | Yes | 50 | 2.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 49 | 4.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| mountaincat0x3378…b63b | No | 1 | 96.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | Yes | 40 | 6.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0708…f218 | Yes | 30 | 1.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$20.48 per $100 · 958 bets |
| 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | 8 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.06 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | Yes | 5 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.02 per $100 · 1,714 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 96.3¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| DREAMBIG.0x9e8e…8db8 | Yes | 3 | 6.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$18.01 per $100 · 5,706 bets |
| the-260-Challenge0xcb58…ccd0 | No | 0 | 96.6¢ | $0 | — |
| luccajales0x3b69…01d7 | No | 0 | 98.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 0 | 2.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 0 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| Touge0x1c44…6c6b | Yes | 0 | 1.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 298 bets |
| sirjhow010x764a…83d3 | Yes | 0 | 3.3¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.