Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No | 206,581 | 90.9¢ | $201K | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 414 bets |
| ololololololololo0x2c4c…cb39 | No | 88,888 | 86.0¢ | $86.4K | Losing−$8.48 per $100 · 188 bets |
| boss7777770x30e5…1549 | No | 82,731 | 91.1¢ | $80.5K | New11 settled bets |
| OraculumNobius0xd25b…9f3d | No | 67,000 | 92.9¢ | $65.2K | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 26,314 bets |
| NeH0x11fc…dc48 | No | 65,977 | 88.5¢ | $64.2K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 159 bets |
| tsybka0xd5cc…dea4 | No | 64,116 | 97.0¢ | $62.4K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 943 bets |
| ANGGGuess0xab01…2558 | No | 39,549 | 94.0¢ | $38.5K | New10 settled bets |
| forinnerpsandr1x112220x5c14…cc49 | No | 29,070 | 86.0¢ | $28.3K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 298 bets |
| Simbaaaa0xc0d9…da5e | No | 24,783 | 92.0¢ | $24.1K | Losing−$5.80 per $100 · 1,962 bets |
| How.Dare.You0x4bbe…2cf3 | No | 24,611 | 88.4¢ | $23.9K | Losing−$4.63 per $100 · 1,350 bets |
| led11100x9941…55a5 | No | 21,009 | 95.0¢ | $20.4K | New0 settled bets |
| RewardsMafia0x3eed…cb2a | No | 20,545 | 87.2¢ | $20K | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 237 bets |
| BigBusinessPro0x71b5…1231 | No | 18,059 | 87.0¢ | $17.6K | New1 settled bet |
| ZnotluvuiSamez0x2889…9226 | Yes | 471,385 | 13.3¢ | $13K | New43 settled bets |
| 0xdamocles0xf5c4…0926 | No | 12,500 | 88.0¢ | $12.2K | Proven+$4.33 per $100 · 283 bets |
| 0x1cd4…f100 | No | 11,200 | 89.0¢ | $10.9K | New31 settled bets |
| Mwhale0x9419…a40f | No | 11,043 | 88.8¢ | $10.7K | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 523 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 10,722 | 87.2¢ | $10.4K | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| Bobo270xe574…22f9 | No | 9,880 | 88.5¢ | $9.61K | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 108 bets |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b040x9507…7b04 | No | 9,377 | 88.4¢ | $9.12K | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 3,709 bets |
| leqso04100xd5c9…586a | No | 8,421 | 95.0¢ | $8.19K | Losing−$6.41 per $100 · 171 bets |
| Bromley860x0b65…293e | No | 8,223 | 97.0¢ | $8K | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 1,095 bets |
| zve3da0xc948…33a1 | No | 7,841 | 89.3¢ | $7.63K | New44 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 6,060 | 90.5¢ | $5.89K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 5,541 | 88.9¢ | $5.39K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| manekineko0x6606…1338 | No | 5,000 | 89.0¢ | $4.86K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 545 bets |
| Lord.Krulos0x7ed4…7759 | No | 3,813 | 86.0¢ | $3.71K | New68 settled bets |
| 0x333e…369b | No | 3,683 | 92.3¢ | $3.58K | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 163 bets |
| TheTradingGame0x0be0…d115 | No | 3,577 | 86.9¢ | $3.48K | New50 settled bets |
| Cherrypicking0xf981…986f | No | 3,500 | 86.0¢ | $3.4K | New16 settled bets |
| Faust120x8d9c…0803 | No | 3,284 | 89.0¢ | $3.19K | New75 settled bets |
| 0xc5a2…9981 | No | 3,219 | 88.5¢ | $3.13K | New91 settled bets |
| 0xb121…b73c | No | 3,000 | 89.0¢ | $2.92K | New38 settled bets |
| Joe-Biden0x8b5a…00f2 | Yes | 100,011 | 9.9¢ | $2.75K | Proven+$16.39 per $100 · 383 bets |
| Cheremsha0x498d…3e20 | No | 2,738 | 88.0¢ | $2.66K | New33 settled bets |
| 300PS0x8f41…260e | No | 2,500 | 90.6¢ | $2.43K | Break-even+$0.43 per $100 · 4,552 bets |
| happy30000x60ad…23c5 | No | 2,400 | 86.0¢ | $2.33K | Proven+$13.20 per $100 · 254 bets |
| 0x9204…5c05 | No | 2,274 | 88.8¢ | $2.21K | New84 settled bets |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 2,237 | 92.3¢ | $2.18K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| Ym777Ym0x66ca…532d | No | 2,200 | 91.0¢ | $2.14K | New23 settled bets |
| Daviddu08130xed7b…1ba9 | No | 2,167 | 90.0¢ | $2.11K | New55 settled bets |
| leurop00x5b42…8aae | No | 2,000 | 90.0¢ | $1.95K | New11 settled bets |
| MoeZart0xf648…8232 | No | 2,000 | 88.0¢ | $1.94K | New46 settled bets |
| Jean-Claude3220x2dca…4bc5 | No | 1,805 | 88.7¢ | $1.76K | Break-even−$0.70 per $100 · 988 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 1,700 | 87.8¢ | $1.65K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| 0x798f…d7d3 | Yes | 56,956 | 12.9¢ | $1.57K | New40 settled bets |
| 0x919d…60e1 | No | 1,600 | 85.4¢ | $1.56K | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 1,345 bets |
| Binturung0x9589…39b0 | Yes | 52,027 | 6.4¢ | $1.43K | New61 settled bets |
| Giannis20260xe5b4…1e3e | No | 1,457 | 86.4¢ | $1.42K | Proven+$13.43 per $100 · 350 bets |
| feedrr0xec76…f9f1 | No | 1,403 | 90.0¢ | $1.36K | Positive+$1.83 per $100 · 985 bets |
| k00pa0xa289…d95c | No | 1,371 | 95.6¢ | $1.33K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 394 bets |
| Palchyk0xbb2b…c5ca | No | 1,241 | 96.7¢ | $1.21K | — |
| ausername0xfef5…c8a6 | No | 1,222 | 87.8¢ | $1.19K | — |
| zubr0xfa22…69a6 | No | 1,149 | 87.0¢ | $1.12K | — |
| Zumala0x82c7…f1f8 | Yes | 28,280 | 6.5¢ | $778 | New78 settled bets |
| 0x4c7f…f8f8 | Yes | 20,000 | 9.5¢ | $550 | New1 settled bet |
| Winner780x9a66…9bc0 | Yes | 17,717 | 11.7¢ | $487 | New47 settled bets |
| 0x68a9…3630 | Yes | 13,980 | 10.5¢ | $384 | New1 settled bet |
| Count.Glockula0x0ee1…39a9 | Yes | 12,657 | 14.6¢ | $348 | New1 settled bet |
| Batundi0x9604…fc1d | Yes | 10,437 | 11.0¢ | $287 | Losing−$2.39 per $100 · 175 bets |
| Sylvester.the.Cat0x0f2b…665a | Yes | 10,000 | 8.9¢ | $275 | Proven+$7.28 per $100 · 118 bets |
| IbnKhaldun0xa4bc…026c | Yes | 10,000 | 11.0¢ | $275 | Positive+$2.23 per $100 · 341 bets |
| AlexCimmeria0x21c7…191a | Yes | 10,000 | 13.0¢ | $275 | Losing−$16.65 per $100 · 224 bets |
| Romanukrfury0x0a5f…dea7 | Yes | 9,091 | 11.0¢ | $250 | Losing−$25.15 per $100 · 452 bets |
| vitavit0xcb8b…4e75 | Yes | 9,091 | 11.0¢ | $250 | New1 settled bet |
| DualDelta0x1543…baaf | Yes | 9,000 | 11.0¢ | $248 | Proven+$9.89 per $100 · 324 bets |
| bienmay15120x3912…d9e8 | Yes | 8,815 | 13.5¢ | $242 | New1 settled bet |
| 0xd100…15d1 | Yes | 6,411 | 9.0¢ | $176 | New0 settled bets |
| REALDONALDPUMP4200xa30e…4b76 | Yes | 5,927 | 11.0¢ | $163 | New30 settled bets |
| Dimir0xe38f…d33e | Yes | 5,503 | 11.3¢ | $151 | New36 settled bets |
| 0x1d1f…6f8d | Yes | 5,017 | 10.3¢ | $138 | New65 settled bets |
| Romkaqb0xab43…2bca | Yes | 4,500 | 11.0¢ | $124 | New0 settled bets |
| Bigticket210x7a19…fe01 | Yes | 3,372 | 10.8¢ | $93 | New11 settled bets |
| abc123def4561230xd12f…3359 | Yes | 2,950 | 14.0¢ | $81 | New10 settled bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 2,872 | 2.3¢ | $79 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | Yes | 2,547 | 7.2¢ | $70 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| thbdthdtg0xc09c…c375 | Yes | 2,500 | 14.0¢ | $69 | New1 settled bet |
| awefgf0x875c…5fcc | Yes | 2,400 | 13.0¢ | $66 | New14 settled bets |
| arty-hyesos0x4b1b…a1cd | Yes | 2,331 | 11.0¢ | $64 | New11 settled bets |
| NE4RT0x1a3e…3489 | Yes | 2,279 | 8.8¢ | $63 | New4 settled bets |
| rip0x5950…8c48 | Yes | 2,000 | 9.0¢ | $55 | Proven+$2.14 per $100 · 647 bets |
| uyfguh0xae02…4a2a | Yes | 2,000 | 12.0¢ | $55 | New10 settled bets |
| 0x2738…1e73 | Yes | 1,881 | 10.3¢ | $52 | New1 settled bet |
| omnibus-4247790x4247…91c4 | Yes | 1,846 | 9.0¢ | $51 | Losing−$12.51 per $100 · 6,017 bets |
| dafahao010x3131…8db2 | Yes | 1,818 | 11.0¢ | $50 | Losing−$10.44 per $100 · 5,023 bets |
| opa4aa0x2f16…1e38 | Yes | 1,625 | 12.0¢ | $45 | New50 settled bets |
| evalso0x4222…aa99 | Yes | 1,534 | 13.0¢ | $42 | New30 settled bets |
| blackswan20x4144…47aa | Yes | 1,515 | 7.5¢ | $42 | New4 settled bets |
| 0xfd02…1706 | Yes | 1,364 | 11.0¢ | $37 | New5 settled bets |
| YouAreMyExitLiqudity0xc4b6…41a7 | Yes | 1,258 | 12.0¢ | $35 | Losing−$4.41 per $100 · 312 bets |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 1,250 | 3.0¢ | $34 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| wolflang0xefd6…c077 | Yes | 1,250 | 8.0¢ | $34 | New3 settled bets |
| cr90x4b51…da79 | Yes | 1,190 | 4.1¢ | $33 | Break-even+$0.49 per $100 · 1,073 bets |
| foxibi0xb51b…3678 | Yes | 1,164 | 12.0¢ | $32 | New59 settled bets |
| Bravo4140xcd96…9ee4 | Yes | 1,143 | 11.4¢ | $31 | Proven+$10.64 per $100 · 153 bets |
| johnyjo0xb69a…7c05 | Yes | 1,131 | 6.6¢ | $31 | Proven+$6.25 per $100 · 677 bets |
| tator-tot0xc6ec…deb6 | Yes | 1,111 | 9.0¢ | $31 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 231 bets |
| 0xb4f7…89d6 | Yes | 1,023 | 10.8¢ | $28 | New11 settled bets |
| 0x38dd…e656 | Yes | 1,000 | 11.5¢ | $28 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 677 bets |
| logan0x33c5…2230 | Yes | 1,000 | 10.0¢ | $28 | Losing−$9.56 per $100 · 206 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.