Market
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cqs0xdfe3…73c4 | No | 87,047 | 60.3¢ | $82.3K | Proven+$3.66 per $100 · 401 bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 37,101 | 72.8¢ | $35.1K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| sheisgorgeous0xf44b…c2b3 | No | 8,499 | 93.3¢ | $8.03K | — |
| leqso04100xd5c9…586a | No | 8,015 | 92.3¢ | $7.57K | Losing−$6.41 per $100 · 171 bets |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 7,304 | 85.3¢ | $6.9K | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | No | 4,588 | 86.7¢ | $4.34K | Proven+$5.10 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| How.Dare.You0x4bbe…2cf3 | No | 4,383 | 86.9¢ | $4.14K | Losing−$4.63 per $100 · 1,350 bets |
| fastviking0x8d0c…5839 | No | 4,000 | 81.0¢ | $3.78K | New71 settled bets |
| linsen0x2be6…8ae5 | No | 3,700 | 91.2¢ | $3.5K | New6 settled bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 3,496 | 89.2¢ | $3.3K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| 0x9204…5c05 | No | 2,829 | 89.3¢ | $2.67K | New84 settled bets |
| NotHarrisonHohman0xe72e…282d | No | 2,681 | 90.6¢ | $2.53K | New8 settled bets |
| HOD-Capital0xfdfa…7fa8 | Yes | 42,691 | 11.5¢ | $2.35K | New4 settled bets |
| 0x8b71…8044 | Yes | 37,104 | 39.0¢ | $2.04K | Proven+$4.95 per $100 · 201 bets |
| tradervader0xd7e6…4f99 | No | 2,038 | 92.5¢ | $1.93K | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 169 bets |
| Monopoly_Money0x7ea7…79ac | No | 2,000 | 62.5¢ | $1.89K | Losing−$4.86 per $100 · 289 bets |
| Madsolbro0x0e09…05bb | No | 1,851 | 91.8¢ | $1.75K | Losing−$5.70 per $100 · 124 bets |
| noblesse.oblige0x24d2…1472 | Yes | 31,556 | 9.9¢ | $1.74K | — |
| 0xc5a2…9981 | No | 1,611 | 92.3¢ | $1.52K | New91 settled bets |
| jajabo0x9947…fc16 | No | 1,598 | 73.6¢ | $1.51K | — |
| vacoolaaa0x464e…1a67 | No | 1,498 | 56.8¢ | $1.42K | Losing−$3.60 per $100 · 218 bets |
| vovatoxic0xf989…47cc | No | 1,464 | 68.3¢ | $1.38K | Proven+$31.56 per $100 · 158 bets |
| ivanmzivkovic0xd556…8ea6 | No | 1,449 | 88.0¢ | $1.37K | New10 settled bets |
| SwissMiss0xdbad…9c95 | No | 1,292 | 70.0¢ | $1.22K | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,238 | 84.0¢ | $1.17K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| Vetalmon0x01e4…2d6a | No | 1,100 | 90.0¢ | $1.04K | — |
| alwaysOn0xc550…272d | No | 1,078 | 90.7¢ | $1.02K | Positive+$1.59 per $100 · 1,030 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1,075 | 76.3¢ | $1.02K | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| DumbOracle0xa9ec…57d5 | No | 1,072 | 89.3¢ | $1.01K | — |
| dsoperative0x4be5…c1b3 | No | 1,000 | 90.0¢ | $945 | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 451 bets |
| MirAsifAhr0x9437…e75f | No | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $945 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 552 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | No | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $945 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 975 | 86.9¢ | $921 | — |
| bifurcatio0xa9ea…1043 | No | 904 | 91.0¢ | $854 | — |
| 007-Bond0x8947…f4b4 | No | 800 | 89.4¢ | $756 | New96 settled bets |
| SACKD0x71f3…28d1 | No | 710 | 71.4¢ | $671 | — |
| 0x441d…8f9c | No | 702 | 93.5¢ | $664 | New44 settled bets |
| thetagains0xadf1…1e9b | No | 700 | 72.3¢ | $662 | — |
| Pantheon10x606e…6b3a | No | 700 | 91.3¢ | $661 | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 477 bets |
| Vanga30000xf5e8…a1ce | No | 675 | 91.5¢ | $638 | — |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 647 | 90.8¢ | $611 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | No | 620 | 93.0¢ | $586 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 594 | 58.0¢ | $562 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| vk70x74db…4ca5 | Yes | 10,000 | 32.0¢ | $550 | New59 settled bets |
| 0xde6a…ec4e | No | 578 | 91.7¢ | $546 | — |
| VibeyQuant0x1f85…a51b | No | 500 | 64.0¢ | $472 | Proven+$3.12 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 490 | 90.8¢ | $463 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 8,141 | 28.1¢ | $448 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| 0xd11c…0d06 | No | 451 | 84.9¢ | $427 | — |
| 0x91c3…409f | No | 440 | 91.0¢ | $415 | New0 settled bets |
| tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5 | Yes | 7,534 | 8.1¢ | $414 | Break-even−$0.43 per $100 · 1,083 bets |
| Rulles0xe650…303e | No | 411 | 73.0¢ | $388 | — |
| 0xe41a…29bd | No | 400 | 90.4¢ | $378 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | No | 400 | 90.8¢ | $378 | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 1,492 bets |
| Greysok0xe443…c065 | No | 378 | 58.3¢ | $357 | — |
| XieGuangKun0x25dc…e33b | No | 350 | 58.7¢ | $330 | Proven+$9.37 per $100 · 1,200 bets |
| uncc0xa24a…9211 | Yes | 5,111 | 48.5¢ | $281 | — |
| ololololololololo0x2c4c…cb39 | Yes | 4,840 | 27.0¢ | $266 | Losing−$8.48 per $100 · 188 bets |
| 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | 4,695 | 13.0¢ | $258 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| gloriafoster0x5d18…4972 | Yes | 4,328 | 25.1¢ | $238 | Losing−$7.65 per $100 · 426 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 3,477 | 16.3¢ | $191 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,266 bets |
| Get100x904f…50c6 | Yes | 3,389 | 25.9¢ | $186 | — |
| alpaca0x5da5…e620 | Yes | 3,219 | 10.7¢ | $177 | Losing−$6.68 per $100 · 287 bets |
| MyLossIsYourGain0xbccd…c5e5 | Yes | 2,709 | 35.4¢ | $149 | — |
| Jo73730x717a…977c | Yes | 2,481 | 23.3¢ | $136 | — |
| shakshukich0x37f9…cc18 | Yes | 2,144 | 27.0¢ | $118 | New25 settled bets |
| Kris-Future0xa139…6f00 | Yes | 2,000 | 27.5¢ | $110 | New54 settled bets |
| semipol0xaef5…5ee2 | Yes | 1,745 | 44.0¢ | $96 | New62 settled bets |
| Fiskantes0x612a…fee9 | Yes | 1,667 | 30.0¢ | $92 | New60 settled bets |
| Puksu0xf61d…48e9 | Yes | 1,626 | 18.4¢ | $89 | — |
| zhiming10x78da…b975 | Yes | 1,316 | 38.0¢ | $72 | New36 settled bets |
| bnetopt0xf18f…294c | Yes | 1,250 | 13.2¢ | $69 | Losing−$21.26 per $100 · 431 bets |
| Zikit0xede1…612b | Yes | 1,200 | 37.0¢ | $66 | — |
| randomaccount70x88bb…c12b | Yes | 869 | 15.0¢ | $48 | New2 settled bets |
| 0x41a0…6e8e | Yes | 833 | 12.0¢ | $46 | New4 settled bets |
| 0x1e13…2ac4 | Yes | 805 | 30.1¢ | $44 | — |
| drakusor0x3fb3…8b56 | Yes | 781 | 32.0¢ | $43 | — |
| moon-k58-lad0xc800…4117 | Yes | 746 | 28.1¢ | $41 | — |
| blender230x6a4e…65dd | Yes | 715 | 32.0¢ | $39 | — |
| avel-mink0x5738…cbb7 | Yes | 700 | 5.0¢ | $38 | New55 settled bets |
| RomulusAugustulus0xae91…476d | Yes | 620 | 28.1¢ | $34 | — |
| BTCisMYlove0xac90…5d06 | Yes | 603 | 16.6¢ | $33 | — |
| Vital-Mathematics0x4044…8de5 | Yes | 600 | 34.5¢ | $33 | — |
| 5.6sol0x5709…22c3 | Yes | 592 | 26.7¢ | $33 | — |
| llama12340x7932…c07a | Yes | 588 | 17.0¢ | $32 | — |
| 0xb986…4b60 | Yes | 581 | 17.9¢ | $32 | — |
| VladimirPooper0xa53e…218d | Yes | 580 | 7.0¢ | $32 | — |
| 0x9156…e72a | Yes | 536 | 28.0¢ | $29 | — |
| 0x3dbe…0f2d | Yes | 531 | 18.8¢ | $29 | — |
| 0x9299…293c | Yes | 520 | 30.0¢ | $29 | — |
| 0xaf30…2c10 | Yes | 500 | 41.0¢ | $27 | — |
| CryptoAddict0x98dc…9949 | Yes | 460 | 11.0¢ | $25 | — |
| zenmoney0xc8f5…cad2 | Yes | 455 | 33.0¢ | $25 | — |
| janissary0x936d…6320 | Yes | 450 | 37.6¢ | $25 | — |
| 0xe594…9bf3 | Yes | 446 | 22.4¢ | $25 | — |
| 0x2eba…ffa3 | Yes | 417 | 10.0¢ | $23 | — |
| Powerful-as-Vegetables0xe5cf…7392 | Yes | 417 | 24.0¢ | $23 | — |
| paranoun0x6988…f556 | Yes | 410 | 17.0¢ | $23 | — |
| gotchahomes0x4b13…d8af | Yes | 400 | 48.0¢ | $22 | New18 settled bets |
| snoopsol0x7cc7…4572 | Yes | 400 | 29.0¢ | $22 | Break-even−$0.03 per $100 · 319 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.