Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 12 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TraderSDG0x6ae0…1472 | No | 504,999 | 84.3¢ | $494K | New17 settled bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | 218,198 | 91.6¢ | $213K | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Macks220x1057…9ea5 | No | 205,030 | 80.0¢ | $200K | Proven+$31.50 per $100 · 122 bets |
| elmcap20xed10…d2e5 | No | 199,111 | 88.5¢ | $195K | Break-even+$0.78 per $100 · 2,129 bets |
| keribit0xc9dc…9026 | No | 98,971 | 89.8¢ | $96.7K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 496 bets |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b040x9507…7b04 | No | 94,890 | 89.6¢ | $92.8K | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 3,709 bets |