Market · 6 of 17 outcomes
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:33 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 820 | 89.4¢ | $722 | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| deepsleep0x8394…8d66 | No | 253 | 86.7¢ | $223 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Midas140x6183…3834 | No | 152 | 82.7¢ | $134 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 670 bets |
| Musk50x1229…df38 | No | 128 | 88.2¢ | $112 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 492 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 117 | 82.0¢ | $103 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| RITB1230x724d…8dea | No | 100 | 89.5¢ | $88 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 22,997 bets |
| ABALOSPRESOPOLITICO0x027a…ea13 | No | 93 | 87.8¢ | $82 | — |
| 0x1411…2410 | No | 88 | 83.4¢ | $77 | Proven+$3.28 per $100 · 354 bets |
| lievre0xc4ba…68fa | No | 72 | 90.4¢ | $63 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 56 | 86.5¢ | $49 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | 404 | 11.5¢ | $48 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| LouvreHeist0x99bc…d837 | No | 49 | 45.0¢ | $43 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 326 | 12.5¢ | $39 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | Yes | 300 | 22.0¢ | $36 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 277 | 16.6¢ | $33 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 270 | 18.5¢ | $32 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 35 | 91.1¢ | $31 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 26 | 88.5¢ | $23 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| Alta-trola0x56e3…521c | No | 20 | 90.0¢ | $18 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 754 bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 125 | 23.9¢ | $15 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| 0x2712…eb71 | No | 16 | 77.0¢ | $14 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 114 | 20.9¢ | $14 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 74 | 14.0¢ | $9 | — |
| jiudubishu0x4e52…44e7 | No | 10 | 85.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$4.23 per $100 · 489 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 10 | 89.7¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| paseorabbit0x211f…8e0f | Yes | 49 | 23.1¢ | $6 | — |
| Shekel0x3e56…35d5 | No | 6 | 87.4¢ | $5 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 40 | 12.5¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 5 | 90.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x8c07…2967 | Yes | 30 | 21.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x053a…043c | Yes | 30 | 17.6¢ | $4 | — |
| AbigailMoore0x1410…3300 | No | 2 | 90.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Indigoat0x8768…0c1d | No | 2 | 91.3¢ | $2 | — |
| Garmonbozia0x3c15…45a0 | Yes | 10 | 7.0¢ | $1 | — |
| simonz77k0x3a9b…6b0c | No | 1 | 88.4¢ | $1 | — |
| uZs00x178a…f5b3 | No | 1 | 90.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | 5 | 6.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$33.48 per $100 · 563 bets |
| 86fgh0x2213…e5de | Yes | 2 | 12.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 283 bets |
| 0x0fa2…05aa | No | 0 | 77.5¢ | $0 | Proven+$11.41 per $100 · 723 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 2 | 9.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 1 | 9.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 4,796 bets |
| R18helloworld0xce31…19c4 | Yes | 1 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| niglette0x23ed…aebc | Yes | 1 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 89.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 63sdf0x601f…76ad | Yes | 0 | 20.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.89 per $100 · 557 bets |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | No | 0 | 87.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x43ca2355417D300x9f92…2c2d | Yes | 0 | 17.6¢ | $0 | — |
| neoarbDa20x3ea7…7fc0 | No | 0 | 83.0¢ | $0 | — |
| napamen0x8494…814a | No | 0 | 83.0¢ | $0 | — |
| eulergomes0xab78…c611 | No | 0 | 83.0¢ | $0 | — |
| daviqq0xda20…cb8d | No | 0 | 83.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sirjhow010x764a…83d3 | Yes | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Colala0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | 0 | 22.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 31,628 bets |
| FELICIOLLI010xa2db…a60d | Yes | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 1 shares each side · Show
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