Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
US Confirms Aliens Exist · 1 event · $7.76M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| elmcap20xed10…d2e5 | No | 132,500 | 99.0¢ | $131K | Break-even+$0.78 per $100 · 2,129 bets |
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No | 128,398 | 98.9¢ | $127K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 721 bets |
| 0xad96…d498 | No | 49,314 | 99.0¢ | $48.8K | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 101 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 29,555 | 98.8¢ | $29.2K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 777 bets |
| Krejza680x1247…9ce9 | No | 25,773 | 98.9¢ | $25.5K | Break-even+$0.51 per $100 · 1,681 bets |
| 572849100x856a…4ea2 | No | 24,824 | 98.9¢ | $24.6K | New18 settled bets |
| largeleeks8880x57de…cd90 | No | 15,180 | 99.1¢ | $15K | Break-even−$0.18 per $100 · 7,592 bets |
| Lolololol0xa745…8ca6 | No | 13,361 | 98.8¢ | $13.2K | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 236 bets |
| LA170xf6ea…0a00 | No | 13,077 | 98.7¢ | $12.9K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 420 bets |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No | 12,000 | 98.8¢ | $11.9K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| wish-0x72a2…7b65 | No | 11,500 | 98.8¢ | $11.4K | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 1,975 bets |
| joebmx0x4aa7…5458 | No | 11,040 | 98.8¢ | $10.9K | New66 settled bets |
| 84690xf137…9cb6 | No | 6,080 | 98.8¢ | $6.02K | New11 settled bets |
| delphy0xbb2e…5bbf | No | 3,033 | 98.9¢ | $3K | — |
| VortexTrading0x41c7…0df5 | No | 2,900 | 98.8¢ | $2.87K | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 5,224 bets |
| TexasOx0xf695…17ac | Yes | 244,402 | 1.1¢ | $2.57K | New0 settled bets |
| Talophex0xd0db…b117 | No | 2,126 | 98.8¢ | $2.1K | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 1,929 bets |
| iamgood8980x6d24…fd7e | No | 2,000 | 100.2¢ | $1.98K | Break-even+$0.49 per $100 · 130 bets |
| ynsider0x3258…5650 | No | 1,885 | 98.9¢ | $1.87K | New67 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,752 | 99.0¢ | $1.73K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| Zoomertrash0x9452…2f78 | No | 1,215 | 98.8¢ | $1.2K | New18 settled bets |
| kinderSman0xa6d9…fd2f | No | 1,000 | 99.0¢ | $990 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 842 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 967 | 99.0¢ | $957 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| Dafu07150x9351…9e4d | No | 935 | 98.9¢ | $925 | Break-even+$0.90 per $100 · 285 bets |
| lifeswhatyoumakeit0xa829…691d | Yes | 83,857 | 1.3¢ | $880 | New1 settled bet |
| flquant0x47bf…c6bb | No | 700 | 99.1¢ | $693 | Break-even+$0.37 per $100 · 266 bets |
| takemymoney0x1602…cbf7 | No | 666 | 98.9¢ | $659 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 791 bets |
| m16-0070x516d…22f6 | No | 645 | 98.6¢ | $638 | New3 settled bets |
| NWORobotics0xd393…c0f0 | Yes | 46,477 | 1.2¢ | $488 | New0 settled bets |
| 22tishi0x0f19…c337 | No | 466 | 98.8¢ | $461 | New25 settled bets |
| fbet0x3c46…7893 | No | 350 | 98.8¢ | $346 | New11 settled bets |
| xasd-4400xfa3b…6900 | Yes | 32,421 | 1.0¢ | $340 | New28 settled bets |
| anna0030xe044…e14c | Yes | 31,817 | 1.0¢ | $334 | New22 settled bets |
| newmasterroshi0x14b1…bfe8 | No | 302 | 98.7¢ | $299 | New96 settled bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 298 | 98.8¢ | $295 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Santaluchia0xd039…ba3b | Yes | 21,459 | 1.0¢ | $225 | Losing−$8.86 per $100 · 162 bets |
| dgfbf6560x8b02…7e50 | No | 227 | 99.2¢ | $224 | New35 settled bets |
| FIT7770x7a1b…d4f2 | No | 202 | 98.9¢ | $200 | New58 settled bets |
| 6ht78fdfhf0x367a…23e6 | No | 200 | 98.8¢ | $198 | New69 settled bets |
| Debosnys0x7e30…1e50 | No | 200 | 98.7¢ | $198 | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 3,054 bets |
| CTJSRGSR0x5775…5d67 | No | 186 | 98.8¢ | $184 | New69 settled bets |
| shrekkek220x2a60…f062 | No | 182 | 98.8¢ | $180 | New81 settled bets |
| nbnbjyj0xc817…892c | No | 182 | 98.8¢ | $180 | New66 settled bets |
| nbngsds30xca24…d692 | No | 174 | 98.9¢ | $172 | — |
| kgtvwyj0x42ba…d8cc | No | 172 | 98.8¢ | $170 | New54 settled bets |
| 78ghgdghvk0x6a28…0c26 | No | 172 | 98.8¢ | $170 | New76 settled bets |
| miya20160xbecd…f54e | No | 167 | 98.7¢ | $165 | Proven+$2.17 per $100 · 2,286 bets |
| dfhbfgnfn43ffd0xac37…f243 | No | 162 | 98.8¢ | $160 | New81 settled bets |
| Prince1ss0xde00…1191 | No | 162 | 98.9¢ | $160 | New66 settled bets |
| memememe900xc291…bc24 | No | 160 | 98.8¢ | $158 | New68 settled bets |
| ytufft8hjt0xe191…1a4f | No | 157 | 99.2¢ | $156 | New60 settled bets |
| yujhggkuy0x41c6…4e9b | No | 157 | 98.8¢ | $155 | New61 settled bets |
| mnbvsdbvdge5ds0x6517…ecc8 | No | 152 | 98.9¢ | $150 | New74 settled bets |
| 5678989HJK0x0b9a…7f19 | No | 149 | 98.8¢ | $147 | New66 settled bets |
| miuklop0xbff5…de13 | No | 149 | 98.8¢ | $147 | New69 settled bets |
| kgj5540x2c2e…eec9 | No | 147 | 99.2¢ | $146 | New62 settled bets |
| UAPPolly0xdc8d…dd77 | Yes | 11,348 | 1.4¢ | $119 | New1 settled bet |
| Virgiledumont0x1a54…3158 | Yes | 8,248 | 1.2¢ | $87 | New9 settled bets |
| agbob0xaff1…141e | Yes | 7,700 | 1.4¢ | $81 | Losing−$13.12 per $100 · 465 bets |
| vdSERJIO0xae1c…77e7 | Yes | 5,556 | 0.9¢ | $58 | New41 settled bets |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 5,078 | 1.1¢ | $53 | Positive+$12.21 per $100 · 3,929 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 3,403 | 1.2¢ | $36 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| angelsdemons0x4d6f…6c76 | Yes | 2,111 | 1.0¢ | $22 | New23 settled bets |
| helvetic-samba0x2bc8…b4da | Yes | 2,000 | 1.1¢ | $21 | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 2,080 bets |
| Ludik980xd824…89b4 | Yes | 1,404 | 1.1¢ | $15 | New40 settled bets |
| WPFUND0x4124…7b40 | Yes | 1,385 | 1.3¢ | $15 | New15 settled bets |
| 0x1941…d147 | Yes | 568 | 1.0¢ | $6 | New0 settled bets |
| 0x5797…7fb7 | Yes | 556 | 0.9¢ | $6 | New6 settled bets |
| J4RL3M0x0371…70c3 | Yes | 500 | 1.5¢ | $5 | Positive+$5.04 per $100 · 245 bets |
| Mgomulin0xf1aa…cf4b | Yes | 385 | 1.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xc193…f904 | Yes | 315 | 1.4¢ | $3 | New0 settled bets |
| AceTheChrist0x4d8d…47c0 | Yes | 273 | 1.1¢ | $3 | New7 settled bets |
| 0x1912…5dc7 | Yes | 100 | 1.2¢ | $1 | New61 settled bets |
| letniy0xd0e0…2a91 | Yes | 100 | 1.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Vilmerjansson0x56ca…0efa | Yes | 77 | 1.4¢ | $1 | New66 settled bets |
| Questionmark130x5fca…8c0c | Yes | 77 | 1.4¢ | $1 | New9 settled bets |
| 0x6fbc…fa10 | Yes | 13 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.85 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$874.43 per $100 · 26,254 bets |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | Yes | 10 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$503.23 per $100 · 49,800+ bets · updating |
| mprey0xe650…1cfb | Yes | 7 | 1.0¢ | $0 | New5 settled bets |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 5 | 1.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| triklozoid0xeab7…b389 | Yes | 5 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2630.36 per $100 · 34,840 bets |
| ConfusedUngaBunga0x1e10…beee | Yes | 0 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$40.20 per $100 · 6,200 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.