Market · 3 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 796 | 61.7¢ | $710 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | Yes | 6,344 | 2.6¢ | $682 | New77 settled bets |
| ratehikes0xa309…4cf2 | Yes | 5,756 | 16.5¢ | $619 | New49 settled bets |
| howesr19700x4097…88f2 | Yes | 2,730 | 2.7¢ | $293 | — |
| 0xebab…cff5 | Yes | 2,000 | 39.5¢ | $215 | — |
| PCMTest0x51b1…7865 | Yes | 1,350 | 2.2¢ | $145 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | No | 153 | 56.8¢ | $136 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,456 bets |
| 88mnm880x3b1a…4221 | No | 150 | 98.0¢ | $134 | — |
| acuellarF0xc7fb…8eb0 | No | 120 | 74.1¢ | $107 | Positive+$1.47 per $100 · 434 bets |
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | No | 108 | 90.4¢ | $96 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| bomzh.kolyadun0xa916…c6a3 | Yes | 763 | 0.2¢ | $82 | — |
| JoE0x7740…cbcd | No | 91 | 97.5¢ | $81 | — |
| kaspersz0x351a…3bc7 | No | 80 | 76.1¢ | $71 | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 1,097 bets |
| 0x7b00…e86e | No | 75 | 85.9¢ | $67 | — |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | 617 | 2.4¢ | $66 | — |
| 0x219a…656a | Yes | 615 | 2.7¢ | $66 | — |
| wallet-account-test0xcaff…e3ad | Yes | 571 | 24.7¢ | $61 | — |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 500 | 0.1¢ | $54 | Positive+$874.43 per $100 · 26,254 bets |
| milkmath0xa15b…8ff7 | No | 55 | 98.3¢ | $49 | — |
| cishanperson0xea5b…0e03 | No | 55 | 97.2¢ | $49 | — |
| mc-hitle-rumer0x909b…bca9 | No | 53 | 94.8¢ | $48 | Break-even+$0.32 per $100 · 162 bets |
| tailorhaer0xcdca…c8ec | No | 52 | 98.2¢ | $46 | — |
| 0x927a…90d6 | Yes | 424 | 6.4¢ | $46 | — |
| fredrris0x12a6…6db5 | No | 51 | 98.4¢ | $46 | — |
| perdoli0x2604…7b70 | No | 51 | 97.9¢ | $46 | — |
| kingnorman8740x3824…a693 | No | 51 | 98.4¢ | $46 | — |
| tverdolobo10x6f0f…5f89 | No | 51 | 95.2¢ | $45 | — |
| mlevikarushak0xc3f2…a661 | No | 50 | 97.9¢ | $45 | — |
| bring.zion0xf63b…3838 | No | 50 | 98.4¢ | $45 | — |
| switcher6100xfc45…df84 | No | 50 | 97.9¢ | $45 | — |
| ubivala1700xe056…00cc | No | 50 | 94.7¢ | $44 | — |
| violaco0x876b…9e57 | No | 47 | 97.9¢ | $42 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 376 | 0.9¢ | $40 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| Deadheadbucky0x68d9…00ed | Yes | 372 | 5.0¢ | $40 | — |
| safrter990x3aa9…ae2c | No | 44 | 96.6¢ | $39 | — |
| jannortr780x1ab0…6a26 | No | 44 | 98.6¢ | $39 | — |
| 0xf278…a69d | Yes | 341 | 3.2¢ | $37 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 333 | 6.7¢ | $36 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 100,985 bets |
| 0x1d36…2a3b | Yes | 285 | 0.7¢ | $31 | — |
| ODINDAO0xeae7…67ec | Yes | 250 | 0.4¢ | $27 | — |
| 0x5edf…3a0c | Yes | 237 | 2.1¢ | $25 | — |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | No | 28 | 98.3¢ | $25 | Break-even+$0.46 per $100 · 40,033+ bets · updating |
| topholop0x54c8…84d8 | No | 25 | 97.3¢ | $22 | — |
| vikbara0xe150…b65e | No | 24 | 98.0¢ | $22 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 195 | 20.9¢ | $21 | Losing−$2.76 per $100 · 122,728 bets |
| JotaFoward0xe99f…7ce9 | Yes | 192 | 18.7¢ | $21 | — |
| clanker10000xa164…4686 | No | 22 | 98.5¢ | $20 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | No | 22 | 62.0¢ | $19 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 176 | 6.7¢ | $19 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 99.3¢ | $18 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,027 bets |
| OkaneKasegu0x5d74…ee45 | Yes | 163 | 3.2¢ | $18 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 710 bets |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 2.6¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x8f8c…4268 | Yes | 142 | 0.6¢ | $15 | — |
| notssf30x5a7b…e9eb | Yes | 138 | 5.3¢ | $15 | Proven+$9.69 per $100 · 213 bets |
| SingletonFamilyFund0x4c4e…297b | Yes | 135 | 34.4¢ | $15 | — |
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | No | 16 | 73.7¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x4b80…88c6 | Yes | 103 | 20.1¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | 102 | 2.8¢ | $11 | — |
| robinss0x44be…0557 | No | 12 | 97.8¢ | $11 | — |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 8.6¢ | $10 | — |
| BSS370x1e98…6345 | Yes | 95 | 2.9¢ | $10 | Positive+$4.13 per $100 · 15,893 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 11 | 80.0¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 0.6¢ | $9 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 88 | 28.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,914 bets |
| Hany230xa09f…f686 | No | 10 | 96.6¢ | $9 | — |
| Golmand0x8c0f…5558 | No | 10 | 98.1¢ | $9 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 61.2¢ | $9 | — |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 10 | 61.2¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x9e24…7e71 | Yes | 81 | 11.8¢ | $9 | Proven+$2.42 per $100 · 701 bets |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 98.5¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 37.5¢ | $8 | — |
| 546tryrey7560x0d23…2693 | No | 8 | 99.8¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xdbae…9720 | Yes | 62 | 15.1¢ | $7 | — |
| zeitfi-vault-v20x6ae0…b747 | Yes | 60 | 41.1¢ | $6 | — |
| KudryavtsevAle0x71f3…4b67 | Yes | 52 | 12.1¢ | $6 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 50 | 3.3¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| tiancs0x8301…3bdc | Yes | 50 | 1.0¢ | $5 | — |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | Yes | 46 | 0.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 31,278+ bets · updating |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 11.9¢ | $5 | — |
| EonGlobe0x48f5…c9d3 | No | 5 | 92.8¢ | $5 | — |
| altsu0x6f90…3f1e | Yes | 42 | 11.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | 5 | 80.4¢ | $4 | — |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 5 | 99.8¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 5 | 76.6¢ | $4 | — |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 40 | 6.7¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,981 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 40 | 6.7¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xe8c4…ea5c | Yes | 40 | 39.6¢ | $4 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 38 | 39.6¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 35 | 3.6¢ | $4 | — |
| geoffwalter18430x030b…f288 | No | 4 | 97.5¢ | $4 | — |
| honesty94hilda0x179d…6494 | No | 4 | 97.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Samsonixvi0x2e54…8543 | No | 4 | 97.3¢ | $4 | — |
| productsuggest0x446b…eb17 | No | 4 | 97.7¢ | $4 | — |
| les380river0x5f40…f29e | No | 4 | 97.5¢ | $4 | — |
| Merle5r870x619b…42e4 | No | 4 | 97.5¢ | $4 | — |
| Leann5740xa972…34c4 | No | 4 | 97.0¢ | $4 | — |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | Yes | 32 | 4.8¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 30 | 6.7¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.37 per $100 · 13,129 bets |
| fm140x4b91…982d | Yes | 28 | 1.5¢ | $3 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.