Market · 4 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 22:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 917 | 92.1¢ | $903 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| tttt1230xdf40…38b8 | No | 200 | 74.6¢ | $197 | Positive+$2.19 per $100 · 3,002 bets |
| DenisBr0xcced…226b | Yes | 11,052 | 25.0¢ | $166 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | No | 156 | 74.0¢ | $154 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| konchelyga0070xe0dc…ca4c | No | 58 | 98.0¢ | $57 | — |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | Yes | 3,126 | 11.3¢ | $47 | New77 settled bets |
| 125-kooyanisqatsi0x4501…39d7 | Yes | 3,004 | 2.3¢ | $45 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 89.7¢ | $39 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,557 bets |
| rousseauuu0x47c1…825f | Yes | 1,892 | 8.5¢ | $28 | Positive+$16.32 per $100 · 485 bets |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 23 | 86.8¢ | $23 | — |
| GamblingEnjoyer0x55d8…0cf5 | Yes | 1,361 | 9.2¢ | $20 | Losing−$1.93 per $100 · 152 bets |
| akimbogod0x6056…c27c | No | 21 | 92.8¢ | $20 | Proven+$8.97 per $100 · 148 bets |
| 0x41e7…97a8 | No | 11 | 92.6¢ | $11 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 79.9¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 515 | 16.4¢ | $8 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 466 | 3.6¢ | $7 | New0 settled bets |
| LA170xf6ea…0a00 | Yes | 444 | 8.9¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 420 bets |
| 12730x6ef8…2a5f | No | 7 | 94.3¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x96e2…1690 | Yes | 401 | 10.2¢ | $6 | — |
| noise126trader0xafb1…0329 | No | 6 | 77.0¢ | $6 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 6 | 97.9¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 5 | 80.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| 0xd8d3…ff72 | No | 5 | 70.7¢ | $5 | — |
| jabbadabba0xbfba…9774 | No | 4 | 75.0¢ | $4 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 256 | 8.9¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,382+ bets · updating |
| products0x8575…87fe | No | 4 | 77.6¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 10,069 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 227 | 6.7¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,803 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 223 | 6.7¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,307 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 219 | 3.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| carpe-noctem0x596a…7a0f | Yes | 202 | 21.7¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xB16B00B50x8a7b…782f | Yes | 201 | 4.7¢ | $3 | — |
| howesr19700x4097…88f2 | Yes | 200 | 30.0¢ | $3 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 187 | 10.4¢ | $3 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| BSS370x1e98…6345 | Yes | 155 | 7.6¢ | $2 | Positive+$4.13 per $100 · 15,893 bets |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 34.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 123 | 7.6¢ | $2 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| jozeslemsek0xd0bf…9f9f | Yes | 113 | 3.7¢ | $2 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 108 | 0.7¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| 000880000x7e50…3912 | Yes | 100 | 5.0¢ | $1 | — |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 9.1¢ | $1 | — |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 20.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 2.2¢ | $1 | — |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | No | 1 | 73.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| zeitfi-vault-v20x6ae0…b747 | Yes | 63 | 2.1¢ | $1 | — |
| vamosgaming0x6cff…a463 | No | 1 | 99.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Bbb260x0b09…b6ca | Yes | 54 | 9.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 50 | 2.1¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 49 | 3.6¢ | $1 | — |
| miroshsa0x982c…0d6e | Yes | 48 | 2.3¢ | $1 | — |
| thejustman0xdbc4…966e | Yes | 47 | 8.0¢ | $1 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 2.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd717…3b85 | No | 1 | 98.4¢ | $1 | — |
| pestanimal0x7bbf…7ce5 | Yes | 42 | 3.6¢ | $1 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 38 | 8.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x6220…85a2 | Yes | 38 | 26.0¢ | $1 | — |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | No | 1 | 70.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| 0x6f867be17af9488b770xb3a2…7b31 | Yes | 33 | 39.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PollyForge0xc540…f00d | Yes | 33 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| bulbnbob0x77b5…9170 | No | 1 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | No | 0 | 80.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.81 per $100 · 69,025+ bets · updating |
| GTOrski10xb3af…84fc | Yes | 25 | 15.5¢ | $0 | New31 settled bets |
| quiddy0x5562…3b41 | Yes | 24 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| cocacole0xcad0…330a | Yes | 18 | 12.9¢ | $0 | — |
| quidy0x8538…ee29 | Yes | 17 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 16 | 25.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| ivanrdawson0x5b3c…8b3d | Yes | 13 | 38.0¢ | $0 | — |
| TerranSupremacy0x4916…f56f | Yes | 13 | 15.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.59 per $100 · 8,855 bets |
| web3catworld0xa89d…fb00 | Yes | 11 | 19.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9869…500d | Yes | 10 | 12.4¢ | $0 | — |
| bb12563250x00e2…88eb | Yes | 10 | 10.5¢ | $0 | — |
| omnibus-6c8b150x6c8b…645c | No | 0 | 99.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.84 per $100 · 4,806 bets |
| Pahalde0xd678…f49b | Yes | 9 | 12.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2059…f13b | Yes | 8 | 12.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.93 per $100 · 998 bets |
| 0xb146…c098 | No | 0 | 64.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213213210x98ac…40d9 | Yes | 5 | 6.4¢ | $0 | — |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | No | 0 | 67.0¢ | $0 | — |
| mylittleepstein0xf6fc…3db8 | No | 0 | 94.3¢ | $0 | — |
| qtpi0x747e…7331 | No | 0 | 94.3¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 87.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Colala0x9cb3…1367 | No | 0 | 87.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 31,628 bets |
| victoria.evergarden0x5935…6ff2 | No | 0 | 94.3¢ | $0 | — |
| hugehorse0x77a6…9bb8 | No | 0 | 94.3¢ | $0 | — |
| prettylittlepsycho0x77ee…3142 | No | 0 | 94.3¢ | $0 | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 0 | 67.5¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| i18z0xd49b…bdf9 | No | 0 | 94.3¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.