Market · 14 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 14, 2026, 02:28 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| elmawsq20xb3e1…f6de | No | 100 | 99.2¢ | $100 | — |
| joosepyy0xc215…1ac0 | No | 100 | 99.2¢ | $100 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 92.2¢ | $40 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 195,833 bets |
| sasfafsaget320x6996…cf9a | Yes | 12,710 | 0.7¢ | $25 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 901 bets |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 23 | 86.4¢ | $23 | — |
| Commander0010x9b53…0e70 | No | 11 | 91.0¢ | $11 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 88.4¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.06 per $100 · 50,803 bets |
| 125-kooyanisqatsi0x4501…39d7 | Yes | 3,702 | 0.7¢ | $7 | — |
| Brianm0xa8da…d488 | Yes | 1,109 | 7.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x597f…702c | Yes | 750 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| ICountElectricSheep0x0894…cf93 | Yes | 669 | 11.5¢ | $1 | — |
| GamblingEnjoyer0x55d8…0cf5 | Yes | 601 | 18.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.93 per $100 · 152 bets |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | No | 1 | 95.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 471 | 3.6¢ | $1 | New0 settled bets |
| vamosgaming0x6cff…a463 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Misread0x0fdb…35fb | Yes | 423 | 14.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Razirback0x92c7…c136 | Yes | 360 | 3.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.17 per $100 · 4,966 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 321 | 6.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 102,739 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 312 | 7.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 125,476+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 249 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| carpe-noctem0x596a…7a0f | Yes | 240 | 5.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 207 | 5.3¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.93 per $100 · 66,097 bets |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | Yes | 200 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| qing678900xda78…5c22 | Yes | 167 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 1.8¢ | $0 | — |
| bulbnbob0x77b5…9170 | No | 0 | 93.2¢ | $0 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 125 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| pestanimal0x7bbf…7ce5 | Yes | 120 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 120 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | 113 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| aHjCz0x2b59…9db6 | Yes | 109 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.88 per $100 · 57,792+ bets · updating |
| 0x5533…51ba | Yes | 106 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.44 per $100 · 18,514 bets |
| Biver520xec82…6eaa | Yes | 100 | 0.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.72 per $100 · 13,010 bets |
| 0x1d36…2a3b | Yes | 100 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| calinbadea0x4427…a13d | Yes | 100 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 100 | 7.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 0 | 94.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Anne6660x0873…09e8 | Yes | 92 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$60.07 per $100 · 7,848 bets |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| fang19570xf82f…5ac5 | Yes | 80 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | Yes | 56 | 0.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,558 bets |
| products0x8575…87fe | No | 0 | 95.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 10,069 bets |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd0e4…7d60 | Yes | 43 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.69 per $100 · 128,627 bets |
| Specialist2003030xfad9…f138 | Yes | 41 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | Yes | 40 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | Yes | 32 | 4.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| web3catworld0xa89d…fb00 | Yes | 29 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc5d0…02c2 | Yes | 25 | 4.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | Yes | 25 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 25 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 0 | 99.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 20 | 3.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.82 per $100 · 18,446 bets |
| akunai0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | 20 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.83 per $100 · 9,510 bets |
| i18z0xd49b…bdf9 | No | 0 | 99.0¢ | $0 | — |
| EirikL0xb834…7e1d | Yes | 14 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| wankerjoesleeper0xe51f…3b96 | Yes | 14 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| quiddy0x5562…3b41 | Yes | 14 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| MHD19970xfad4…a7f1 | Yes | 11 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 10 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 0 | 92.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,825 bets |
| 0xd717…3b85 | Yes | 9 | 6.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1e82…af92 | No | 0 | 94.8¢ | $0 | — |
| gee020x7aa8…9970 | No | 0 | 99.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 0 | 91.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 23,056 bets |
| Anon3213213210x98ac…40d9 | Yes | 5 | 6.4¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.