Market · 11 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:16 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 97.2¢ | $40 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 193,297 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 34 | 99.7¢ | $34 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 23 | 95.4¢ | $23 | — |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 5,000 | 0.3¢ | $12 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| 125-kooyanisqatsi0x4501…39d7 | Yes | 4,492 | 0.6¢ | $11 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 95.8¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| xvsp0x20a3…29db | Yes | 2,161 | 1.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | 1,566 | 0.4¢ | $4 | Positive+$13.19 per $100 · 8,595 bets |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 1,421 | 0.6¢ | $4 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | 1,249 | 3.8¢ | $3 | — |
| Brianm0xa8da…d488 | Yes | 980 | 4.6¢ | $2 | — |
| ICountElectricSheep0x0894…cf93 | Yes | 832 | 5.2¢ | $2 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 771 | 0.5¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 607 | 3.2¢ | $2 | Positive+$12.20 per $100 · 3,928 bets |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 471 | 3.6¢ | $1 | — |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | No | 1 | 97.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 310 | 6.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| teikichihori0xa02d…f508 | Yes | 303 | 3.3¢ | $1 | — |
| xzz80xcb44…3e02 | Yes | 298 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 288 | 3.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 273 | 6.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,254 bets |
| 0xd717…3b85 | No | 1 | 99.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 207 | 5.3¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,043 bets |
| MemeLoverOfficial0x5d55…7cba | Yes | 200 | 1.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$40.35 per $100 · 15,805 bets |
| BuyDipZ0xdd15…7cc5 | Yes | 200 | 4.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 197 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| calinbadea0x4427…a13d | Yes | 190 | 5.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 2.3¢ | $0 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 144 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,034 bets |
| 0x597f…702c | Yes | 143 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 142 | 1.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.89 per $100 · 8,678 bets |
| MHD19970xfad4…a7f1 | Yes | 105 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.0x613b…da44 | Yes | 100 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$63.56 per $100 · 34,653+ bets · updating |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| EirikL0xb834…7e1d | Yes | 91 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 4.1¢ | $0 | — |
| DaveDD0xc6b2…3caa | Yes | 85 | 3.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xB16B00B50x8a7b…782f | Yes | 81 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| pestanimal0x7bbf…7ce5 | Yes | 80 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1d36…2a3b | Yes | 73 | 4.1¢ | $0 | — |
| PolyJaguar0xc18b…3917 | Yes | 66 | 1.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$11.33 per $100 · 989 bets |
| 0xd0e4…7d60 | Yes | 65 | 4.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 60 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xbe37…77c8 | Yes | 60 | 4.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Tiger880xa802…23df | Yes | 59 | 1.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc5d0…02c2 | Yes | 45 | 2.3¢ | $0 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| web3catworld0xa89d…fb00 | Yes | 44 | 4.5¢ | $0 | — |
| NoMoreMister0x4df7…522d | Yes | 42 | 7.1¢ | $0 | — |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 40 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | Yes | 32 | 4.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| nexusoptimus0xa994…19a6 | Yes | 28 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| xKingCaesar0x38fc…33e2 | Yes | 28 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | Yes | 25 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | Yes | 25 | 4.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.46 per $100 · 40,033+ bets · updating |
| i18z0xd49b…bdf9 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| pm7777770xaedd…150c | No | 0 | 96.3¢ | $0 | — |
| elpatrondelaciudad0x156b…0f5b | No | 0 | 99.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1e82…af92 | No | 0 | 97.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213213210x98ac…40d9 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.