Market · 8 of 15 outcomes
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 99.4¢ | $40 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,341 bets |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 23 | 99.4¢ | $23 | — |
| 125-kooyanisqatsi0x4501…39d7 | Yes | 3,098 | 0.5¢ | $11 | — |
| darik02000x3eb8…7b06 | Yes | 3,000 | 1.8¢ | $11 | — |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 3,000 | 0.3¢ | $10 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| 0xf52b…bdf5 | Yes | 2,667 | 21.3¢ | $9 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 9 | 99.3¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| PolyJaguar0xc18b…3917 | Yes | 2,584 | 2.8¢ | $9 | Positive+$11.33 per $100 · 989 bets |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | No | 8 | 99.1¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,557 bets |
| 0xbe9d…a829 | Yes | 1,620 | 1.2¢ | $6 | — |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | 1,249 | 0.5¢ | $4 | — |
| tennis-else0x1474…f1d1 | No | 4 | 98.4¢ | $4 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 949 | 2.4¢ | $3 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 651 | 12.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 471 | 3.6¢ | $2 | New0 settled bets |
| 0xf193…6e35 | Yes | 438 | 1.1¢ | $2 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 426 | 6.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,295 bets |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | No | 1 | 99.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| Husain19970xdfb3…052c | Yes | 357 | 1.4¢ | $1 | — |
| Huye1680x4ae7…561f | Yes | 305 | 0.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$19.58 per $100 · 1,654 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 302 | 6.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,756 bets |
| WoodenBoat0x5a0e…0f19 | No | 1 | 99.5¢ | $1 | — |
| vamosgaming0x6cff…a463 | No | 1 | 99.7¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 232 | 6.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 124,233+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 202 | 5.3¢ | $1 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,065 bets |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 196 | 0.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| 0xc35e…6d12 | Yes | 193 | 1.3¢ | $1 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 180 | 2.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0x1d36…2a3b | Yes | 167 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| RexScrat0x78b1…cf6a | Yes | 167 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 150 | 1.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x8b22…c81e | Yes | 143 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| EirikL0xb834…7e1d | Yes | 136 | 0.7¢ | $0 | — |
| MHD19970xfad4…a7f1 | Yes | 129 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| BSS370x1e98…6345 | Yes | 111 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.13 per $100 · 15,893 bets |
| wozaitaibei0xdad7…005a | Yes | 95 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| wtfsss0x472c…9c3d | Yes | 88 | 1.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xbbc0…10d2 | Yes | 82 | 1.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x39aa…583c | Yes | 75 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 22,697 bets |
| somewhereintime0x31f6…475b | Yes | 71 | 1.4¢ | $0 | — |
| JohnJJJ0x78d2…7a2b | Yes | 63 | 9.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.59 per $100 · 9,894 bets |
| Biver520xec82…6eaa | Yes | 62 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.72 per $100 · 13,010 bets |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 60 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe8b4…396c | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 55 | 2.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| gramirot0xac89…7096 | Yes | 51 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| tiancs0x8301…3bdc | Yes | 50 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 99.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 40 | 6.7¢ | $0 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 37 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 99.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,132 bets |
| human.bean0x39fd…849e | Yes | 35 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | Yes | 32 | 4.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| p3eFbv0H3b0x0603…8f62 | Yes | 30 | 1.3¢ | $0 | — |
| products0x8575…87fe | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 10,069 bets |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 0 | 83.4¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | Yes | 25 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| quiddy0x5562…3b41 | Yes | 24 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9b4b…591c | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| AIDROPP0x6f2a…9551 | No | 0 | 99.4¢ | $0 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 20 | 3.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| fm140x4b91…982d | Yes | 20 | 0.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 4,018 bets |
| funfactj0xe11f…88db | Yes | 20 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x6a07…2952 | No | 0 | 99.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa996…34b5 | No | 0 | 99.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8db8…c3f0 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| i18z0xd49b…bdf9 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Laurentdepau0x38ab…ab66 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| jeanmermier0x1e63…7267 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd717…3b85 | Yes | 9 | 6.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8220…92a5 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd39c…8d35 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| JoE0x7740…cbcd | Yes | 7 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 11,334 bets |
| 0x3317…76b4 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9120…2fcc | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| lonelyfighter0x97c6…6587 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x72e0…0b96 | No | 0 | 99.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa158…1c1b | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213213210x98ac…40d9 | Yes | 5 | 6.4¢ | $0 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 0 | 99.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| 2wsx3edc30x69af…0a19 | No | 0 | 99.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x01d2…c603 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | — |
| velitNisibro0x28f2…36d6 | No | 0 | 99.1¢ | $0 | — |
| sedIsteor0x6888…65e9 | No | 0 | 99.4¢ | $0 | — |
| voluptatibusSunter0xce58…2b6a | No | 0 | 99.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Molestiaeinciduntix0xeddd…fc5d | No | 0 | 99.3¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.