4.5%

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?”.

1. §1This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026.
2. §2The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
3. §3The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
4. §4This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued.
5. §5Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
6. §6If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
7. §7Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point.
8. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.