Market · 2 of 20 outcomes
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:23 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA170xf6ea…0a00 | No | 1,029 | 84.2¢ | $891 | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 420 bets |
| 0xa894…53da | No | 421 | 95.0¢ | $365 | Proven+$9.34 per $100 · 181 bets |
| 0xa82c…dd71 | No | 301 | 90.8¢ | $261 | Losing−$11.94 per $100 · 154 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 146 | 85.5¢ | $127 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| ratehikes0xa309…4cf2 | Yes | 864 | 28.9¢ | $115 | New49 settled bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 132 | 89.6¢ | $115 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 871 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 116 | 95.3¢ | $101 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| CompulsiveGambler0xe0f1…c4bd | No | 100 | 94.0¢ | $87 | Proven+$5.10 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| Adrink3D0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | 505 | 11.7¢ | $67 | — |
| 0xf80e…2af8 | No | 69 | 85.4¢ | $60 | Proven+$16.72 per $100 · 124 bets |
| vlospa0x5814…cb14 | No | 65 | 59.3¢ | $56 | — |
| barkmaster0xf534…bdf0 | No | 58 | 97.2¢ | $50 | — |
| ueberman0x559a…2107 | No | 56 | 97.5¢ | $49 | — |
| 0xa288…f80f | Yes | 354 | 11.4¢ | $47 | — |
| polly55575550xb8ec…5b2d | No | 51 | 97.5¢ | $44 | — |
| fannyamporn0x9757…73e8 | No | 50 | 96.3¢ | $43 | — |
| UnderwriterGCR0x771d…440e | No | 40 | 91.0¢ | $35 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 232 | 14.8¢ | $31 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 175 | 14.0¢ | $23 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| po-ly28-test-user60x53f8…5ce0 | No | 26 | 55.4¢ | $23 | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 533 bets |
| 0x43ca…d04c | Yes | 169 | 6.2¢ | $23 | — |
| october100x63ac…5bfc | No | 16 | 92.8¢ | $14 | New37 settled bets |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 15 | 90.9¢ | $13 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,637 bets |
| Mathgamble0x45f2…722e | No | 14 | 88.5¢ | $12 | — |
| pecepe0xbc0d…d3a5 | No | 13 | 84.5¢ | $12 | — |
| Openty30xe442…b87b | No | 11 | 96.9¢ | $10 | — |
| bazzaloing0x29a5…7752 | No | 11 | 91.4¢ | $10 | Losing−$2.26 per $100 · 2,716 bets |
| axiol0x8217…4936 | No | 11 | 94.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 10 | 85.3¢ | $8 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 60 | 0.9¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| 7576770x7b98…5cfa | Yes | 44 | 5.0¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,528 bets |
| JJ-95270xe22c…7baf | No | 7 | 83.6¢ | $6 | — |
| polikstoproc0xb016…95fd | Yes | 42 | 51.6¢ | $6 | — |
| chtozahnya0x2710…e1ee | No | 6 | 97.2¢ | $5 | — |
| nurfik0x5fee…3719 | No | 6 | 97.5¢ | $5 | — |
| Balleenos0x85e1…2a0d | No | 5 | 95.0¢ | $5 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 5 | 87.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | 5 | 84.8¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xfa01…800a | No | 5 | 84.8¢ | $4 | — |
| Schmiegelow0x9eb9…3ed3 | No | 5 | 86.6¢ | $4 | — |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | Yes | 30 | 4.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.46 per $100 · 40,033+ bets · updating |
| 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | 30 | 4.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 919 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 29 | 15.4¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | Yes | 26 | 3.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xa154…87c6 | Yes | 25 | 6.0¢ | $3 | — |
| BakerCaden0xd4bc…5ea7 | No | 3 | 96.9¢ | $3 | — |
| SC2610010xa2c0…cbe8 | Yes | 20 | 45.8¢ | $3 | — |
| JakeBeez0x25b9…3058 | Yes | 20 | 9.0¢ | $3 | — |
| destropyer0x363c…4463 | Yes | 20 | 6.0¢ | $3 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 20 | 11.5¢ | $3 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| 0x8c9f…46af | Yes | 20 | 7.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 20 | 34.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| 0xbdde…e54a | Yes | 20 | 5.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xed5b…8e60 | Yes | 17 | 5.8¢ | $2 | — |
| yueyueyn0xb87f…f7d4 | Yes | 17 | 16.6¢ | $2 | — |
| romanew-crypto0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | 10 | 15.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xe9c1…e713 | Yes | 10 | 4.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 1 | 82.1¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| 0x5287…3a16 | No | 1 | 83.5¢ | $1 | — |
| deSora0x6eae…1916 | No | 1 | 96.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$2.54 per $100 · 2,328 bets |
| hadarhaddad0x1946…6367 | Yes | 5 | 10.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | 5 | 5.0¢ | $1 | — |
| malafama10xab81…4645 | Yes | 5 | 39.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x6200…dfa6 | Yes | 4 | 33.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x5533…51ba | Yes | 3 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.29 per $100 · 18,335 bets |
| louj750180x480f…7c91 | Yes | 2 | 16.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.01 per $100 · 456 bets |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 2 | 2.6¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| keybo0xc71b…e265 | Yes | 2 | 3.4¢ | $0 | — |
| krootz0x450e…4fdd | Yes | 2 | 9.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1e4a…fadc | Yes | 1 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 307 bets |
| Xixihaha0080xf609…e68b | Yes | 1 | 5.3¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420040xcf37…993f | No | 0 | 94.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | 1 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$33.48 per $100 · 563 bets |
| 88mnm880x3b1a…4221 | Yes | 1 | 4.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.95 per $100 · 8,246 bets |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 89.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 25oodksmsss090x3bef…f04e | Yes | 0 | 3.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.74 per $100 · 3,550 bets |
| 0x6874…4a78 | No | 0 | 96.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 69dsfs0x624b…56f8 | Yes | 0 | 17.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 910 bets |
| yoyobb20180x832b…5c91 | No | 0 | 90.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,007 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 90.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,637 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 8.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 15.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| RazuchiDISNEY0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | 0 | 11.7¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.