Market · 4 of 4 outcomes
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | No | 3,491 | 86.1¢ | $2.83K | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 3,007 | 83.6¢ | $2.43K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| ourdemocracy20xbdcb…e811 | No | 1,503 | 86.0¢ | $1.22K | Break-even+$0.15 per $100 · 569 bets |
| bigdickprick0x8735…46e5 | Yes | 4,549 | 15.8¢ | $867 | — |
| OrbitSugarFree0x890d…15ac | No | 702 | 84.8¢ | $569 | New74 settled bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 665 | 85.0¢ | $538 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,963 bets |
| yoyobb20180x832b…5c91 | No | 664 | 84.9¢ | $537 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,007 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 480 | 86.5¢ | $389 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,584 bets |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | No | 346 | 79.1¢ | $280 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 342 | 72.3¢ | $277 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | Yes | 1,177 | 18.6¢ | $224 | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| NeonVector0xe090…d0d4 | Yes | 1,039 | 11.6¢ | $198 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 240 | 87.5¢ | $194 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| delphilo0xca52…0cdf | Yes | 711 | 27.7¢ | $135 | — |
| 0x4015…f4a9 | No | 150 | 96.1¢ | $121 | New32 settled bets |
| stanmktmaker0xf0ce…ee0b | Yes | 582 | 14.1¢ | $111 | — |
| 0x7da9…5741 | Yes | 553 | 14.9¢ | $105 | — |
| wind20050x5e7f…7bfd | Yes | 549 | 18.3¢ | $105 | — |
| IceMan690xc8a9…3a5d | Yes | 497 | 5.3¢ | $95 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | No | 100 | 84.3¢ | $81 | — |
| Vagabund970xa53b…4021 | Yes | 409 | 35.4¢ | $78 | — |
| k7X9mP2qW40x7994…c512 | No | 88 | 82.6¢ | $71 | Proven+$2.87 per $100 · 1,430 bets |
| 0xd27b…9947 | Yes | 345 | 15.4¢ | $66 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 81 | 82.0¢ | $66 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | Yes | 300 | 23.0¢ | $57 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| PNP0xf1dc…5460 | Yes | 220 | 14.6¢ | $42 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 45 | 91.1¢ | $36 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| MiaoAlpha0x5231…ca59 | Yes | 172 | 15.4¢ | $33 | New36 settled bets |
| commeowder0xd06f…d4a6 | No | 39 | 96.0¢ | $32 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 2,064 bets |
| 0x10a1…a0dc | Yes | 127 | 20.4¢ | $24 | — |
| SafeVaultBlue0x977f…0981 | Yes | 120 | 17.9¢ | $23 | — |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | No | 17 | 83.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 1,687 bets |
| radeksaturka0xa98c…5173 | Yes | 63 | 34.5¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x1589…8194 | No | 13 | 77.5¢ | $11 | — |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | Yes | 52 | 29.2¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x7975…1fe1 | Yes | 50 | 17.5¢ | $10 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 50 | 14.4¢ | $10 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 50 | 20.0¢ | $10 | — |
| rocky420070x6b17…03b2 | Yes | 49 | 24.6¢ | $9 | — |
| yrnmv0xcc37…afb6 | Yes | 43 | 19.6¢ | $8 | — |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 56.5¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 3,847 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 10 | 56.5¢ | $8 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 56.7¢ | $8 | — |
| PP55P0xf18c…18c1 | Yes | 34 | 13.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 30 | 39.4¢ | $6 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 30 | 29.5¢ | $6 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Clarencetsai0x8c04…2eae | Yes | 30 | 15.4¢ | $6 | New12 settled bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 7 | 72.5¢ | $6 | — |
| INTERPOL0x255e…f6dc | No | 7 | 77.1¢ | $5 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 25 | 19.9¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 24 | 10.0¢ | $5 | — |
| cpctbusiness0x8807…d08a | Yes | 24 | 33.5¢ | $5 | — |
| GamblingMangoes0x610a…454b | Yes | 20 | 34.0¢ | $4 | — |
| smarterstrat0xe550…6f6e | Yes | 20 | 40.2¢ | $4 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 19 | 37.2¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| Blessy.05510x5c3c…d6b5 | No | 4 | 82.4¢ | $3 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | Yes | 10 | 29.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | Yes | 10 | 29.5¢ | $2 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | No | 2 | 64.6¢ | $2 | — |
| ButtonForest0x48f3…9ec3 | Yes | 7 | 27.9¢ | $1 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | Yes | 6 | 33.6¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Yes | 6 | 26.5¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| bc5f76A21059fA5536c3C0xb6d8…b372 | Yes | 5 | 24.2¢ | $1 | — |
| G24L80x8a51…51a2 | No | 1 | 92.5¢ | $1 | — |
| osmych0x7008…2fdd | No | 1 | 94.7¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 4 | 21.9¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Periculum0x64c9…64b2 | Yes | 4 | 25.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Aggggaa120x498a…a9ee | No | 1 | 84.9¢ | $1 | — |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | No | 1 | 71.2¢ | $1 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 4 | 29.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 4 | 18.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| 0x6fbc…fa10 | Yes | 2 | 14.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.85 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | Yes | 1 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$503.23 per $100 · 49,800+ bets · updating |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 89.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 0 | 78.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | No | 0 | 78.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | No | 0 | 46.3¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| 0x4327…288f | No | 0 | 71.4¢ | $0 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | No | 0 | 85.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| gcjames0x43fd…59d3 | No | 0 | 84.9¢ | $0 | — |
| ca-maple0x2a72…a2ab | Yes | 0 | 22.9¢ | $0 | — |
| HE110W0R1D0xa86f…022c | Yes | 0 | 18.3¢ | $0 | — |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 0 | 12.6¢ | $0 | — |
| FFFFFFFF90xf333…ba41 | Yes | 0 | 19.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.