Market · 3 of 4 outcomes
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:30 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 1,800 | 76.4¢ | $1.27K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,042 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 828 | 55.7¢ | $583 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| OrbitSugarFree0x890d…15ac | No | 564 | 83.7¢ | $397 | New74 settled bets |
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | No | 502 | 83.4¢ | $354 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| delphilo0xca52…0cdf | Yes | 1,002 | 48.1¢ | $296 | — |
| Vagabund970xa53b…4021 | Yes | 847 | 33.5¢ | $250 | — |
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | No | 210 | 61.3¢ | $148 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | No | 137 | 68.1¢ | $97 | — |
| NeonVector0xe090…d0d4 | Yes | 311 | 25.9¢ | $92 | — |
| k7X9mP2qW40x7994…c512 | Yes | 277 | 35.0¢ | $82 | Proven+$2.87 per $100 · 1,430 bets |
| nellojello0xa8ae…8eb7 | Yes | 200 | 37.2¢ | $59 | Proven+$10.19 per $100 · 305 bets |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | Yes | 200 | 33.0¢ | $59 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 120 | 30.0¢ | $35 | — |
| 0x7da9…5741 | Yes | 115 | 29.3¢ | $34 | — |
| derm0rx0xe25e…3f31 | Yes | 104 | 20.0¢ | $31 | — |
| hopolopop0x5735…239d | Yes | 100 | 42.2¢ | $30 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 87 | 35.6¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 122,975+ bets · updating |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | Yes | 80 | 30.0¢ | $24 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 79 | 40.0¢ | $23 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| cpctbusiness0x8807…d08a | Yes | 66 | 36.9¢ | $20 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 62 | 39.0¢ | $18 | Positive+$3.68 per $100 · 14,155 bets |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | Yes | 51 | 40.2¢ | $15 | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 50 | 43.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 50 | 25.9¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x8cf3…3dfd | No | 20 | 52.2¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x8cf2…610f | Yes | 40 | 33.1¢ | $12 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 16 | 73.9¢ | $11 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 35 | 45.4¢ | $10 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 33 | 39.1¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x51ae…ce30 | Yes | 30 | 29.0¢ | $9 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 25 | 39.0¢ | $7 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 24 | 28.2¢ | $7 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 78.0¢ | $7 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 83.0¢ | $7 | — |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | No | 10 | 64.0¢ | $7 | — |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | Yes | 22 | 42.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 47.0¢ | $6 | — |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 8 | 85.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 16 | 27.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,918 bets |
| ZealJob0xb79f…b196 | Yes | 16 | 33.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xe6f8…d5bb | Yes | 12 | 42.2¢ | $4 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 10 | 33.0¢ | $3 | — |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | Yes | 10 | 12.0¢ | $3 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 10 | 24.5¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| ju5z0v5rpcf80xce50…88ae | No | 3 | 68.8¢ | $2 | — |
| ArsAmatoria0x3af8…e603 | Yes | 5 | 29.0¢ | $2 | — |
| slyfox110xe418…eaab | Yes | 4 | 37.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9495…468f | No | 1 | 58.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$4.11 per $100 · 12,461 bets |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 2 | 50.2¢ | $1 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | No | 0 | 77.0¢ | $0 | — |
| carobcarrot0x8061…3c49 | No | 0 | 63.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 77.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 39.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 19.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 74.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 73.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| Hochul3250x5284…27f5 | Yes | 0 | 24.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x4c9e…4449 | Yes | 0 | 29.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 20 shares each side · Show
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