Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | No | 2,490 | 88.6¢ | $1K | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | Yes | 1,018 | 23.6¢ | $609 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| cookedquail0xff06…2f60 | Yes | 777 | 63.9¢ | $464 | Proven+$43.19 per $100 · 119 bets |
| 0x6fa7…907e | Yes | 615 | 56.2¢ | $368 | — |
| Started-with-20-USD0x4388…5050 | Yes | 443 | 31.4¢ | $265 | — |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | No | 602 | 43.5¢ | $242 | — |
| OrbitSugarFree0x890d…15ac | No | 600 | 90.2¢ | $242 | New74 settled bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 381 | 69.6¢ | $228 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| 0x2574…144b | Yes | 298 | 68.2¢ | $178 | — |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | Yes | 257 | 78.6¢ | $154 | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| delphilo0xca52…0cdf | Yes | 247 | 81.7¢ | $148 | — |
| Vagabund970xa53b…4021 | Yes | 210 | 72.6¢ | $125 | — |
| variant1.meta0xdf59…deb0 | No | 299 | 41.6¢ | $120 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 250 | 46.0¢ | $101 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| 0x7da9…5741 | Yes | 138 | 38.8¢ | $83 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 115 | 64.9¢ | $69 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 110 | 61.0¢ | $66 | — |
| hopolopop0x5735…239d | Yes | 100 | 67.6¢ | $60 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 92 | 26.7¢ | $55 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 117 | 40.1¢ | $47 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| ply-top3-clost-twet0x0b4c…4277 | Yes | 75 | 65.7¢ | $45 | — |
| plytest20x08b4…624e | Yes | 75 | 65.7¢ | $45 | — |
| k7X9mP2qW40x7994…c512 | No | 111 | 37.1¢ | $45 | Proven+$2.87 per $100 · 1,430 bets |
| johnashbough0xef13…63d9 | No | 105 | 44.2¢ | $42 | — |
| 0x4015…f4a9 | No | 100 | 92.0¢ | $40 | — |
| 0x51ae…ce30 | No | 100 | 48.5¢ | $40 | — |
| Bodytobody0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | 64 | 21.0¢ | $38 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 94 | 72.0¢ | $38 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 61 | 39.8¢ | $36 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 79 | 33.7¢ | $32 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| 0xd10a…b9cd | Yes | 49 | 68.0¢ | $29 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 62 | 45.1¢ | $25 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,254 bets |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | No | 55 | 69.7¢ | $22 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 49 | 84.9¢ | $20 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 28 | 76.6¢ | $17 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 26 | 36.1¢ | $15 | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 36 | 31.1¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | 22 | 25.6¢ | $13 | — |
| zzmdc20x5354…50e7 | Yes | 20 | 73.0¢ | $12 | — |
| cpctbusiness0x8807…d08a | Yes | 19 | 66.6¢ | $11 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | No | 19 | 42.4¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | No | 18 | 62.0¢ | $7 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 17 | 50.4¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | No | 17 | 34.4¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xe0e0…67fd | Yes | 10 | 69.9¢ | $6 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | Yes | 10 | 19.9¢ | $6 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 10 | 49.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Asasdasasd0x6013…777b | No | 15 | 35.1¢ | $6 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 9 | 56.8¢ | $6 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 19.2¢ | $4 | — |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 31.4¢ | $4 | — |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 10 | 34.6¢ | $4 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 32.3¢ | $4 | — |
| blisik0x93ed…7e69 | No | 9 | 44.4¢ | $4 | — |
| yrnmv0xcc37…afb6 | Yes | 6 | 64.4¢ | $3 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | No | 6 | 26.0¢ | $2 | — |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | Yes | 4 | 59.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xbbf6…7de7 | Yes | 4 | 20.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | No | 5 | 12.3¢ | $2 | — |
| traxup0x2c69…a9a2 | No | 4 | 62.1¢ | $2 | — |
| random-random1230xa1cc…fa62 | Yes | 1 | 67.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x90a8…ed23 | Yes | 1 | 68.2¢ | $1 | — |
| MGSIV0x10ff…de16 | Yes | 1 | 73.0¢ | $1 | — |
| chgltk0xcacb…5490 | No | 2 | 53.8¢ | $1 | — |
| G24L80x8a51…51a2 | Yes | 1 | 6.4¢ | $1 | — |
| lplplplplplp0xdf8d…3a6c | No | 1 | 44.8¢ | $1 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 1 | 12.5¢ | $1 | — |
| ju5z0v5rpcf80xce50…88ae | Yes | 1 | 58.9¢ | $0 | — |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | No | 1 | 41.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 0 | 59.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca75…0a64 | No | 0 | 29.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 57.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| POB10xb431…82ec | Yes | 0 | 19.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | No | 0 | 31.5¢ | $0 | — |
| luccajales0x3b69…01d7 | Yes | 0 | 8.9¢ | $0 | — |
| boofa0xbc42…790f | Yes | 0 | 44.5¢ | $0 | — |
| brra0x9435…91fd | No | 0 | 37.3¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | No | 0 | 34.1¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 1 shares each side · Show
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