Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:30 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JasonPunos0x47ae…ee94 | Yes | 1,183 | 88.1¢ | $905 | Break-even+$0.96 per $100 · 1,080 bets |
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | Yes | 686 | 87.0¢ | $525 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,077 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 1,250 | 37.5¢ | $294 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,042 bets |
| 84690xf137…9cb6 | Yes | 269 | 94.7¢ | $206 | New11 settled bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 263 | 82.2¢ | $201 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| 0x6fa7…907e | Yes | 192 | 80.7¢ | $147 | — |
| delphilo0xca52…0cdf | Yes | 187 | 94.9¢ | $143 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 142 | 86.1¢ | $109 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | Yes | 136 | 80.6¢ | $104 | — |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | Yes | 125 | 80.8¢ | $96 | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 369 | 11.3¢ | $87 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 122,975+ bets · updating |
| 0x51ae…ce30 | Yes | 105 | 85.8¢ | $80 | — |
| hopolopop0x5735…239d | Yes | 100 | 87.6¢ | $77 | — |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 100 | 90.0¢ | $77 | — |
| SickandTired0x290d…dc40 | Yes | 100 | 78.0¢ | $76 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 96 | 74.2¢ | $73 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| DancewithRisk0xb0fc…ce0b | No | 296 | 55.1¢ | $70 | — |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | No | 292 | 20.7¢ | $69 | — |
| Started-with-20-USD0x4388…5050 | No | 287 | 63.5¢ | $67 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | Yes | 87 | 86.2¢ | $67 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 239 | 10.7¢ | $56 | — |
| 0xf08c…3295 | No | 226 | 67.3¢ | $53 | — |
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | No | 221 | 87.0¢ | $52 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| SafeVaultBlue0x977f…0981 | Yes | 60 | 86.0¢ | $46 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 52 | 42.5¢ | $40 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 50 | 37.2¢ | $38 | — |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | Yes | 42 | 44.0¢ | $32 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 120 | 24.0¢ | $28 | — |
| Pol7StrategyBuilder0x2a20…89d2 | No | 100 | 90.0¢ | $24 | — |
| the-260-Challenge0xcb58…ccd0 | No | 100 | 90.0¢ | $24 | — |
| rocky420070x6b17…03b2 | No | 91 | 10.0¢ | $21 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 26 | 85.0¢ | $20 | — |
| Crabsoup920xa156…cf02 | No | 79 | 25.0¢ | $19 | — |
| beyond00xb139…0ba0 | No | 70 | 90.5¢ | $16 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 62 | 24.2¢ | $15 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| yrnmv0xcc37…afb6 | No | 50 | 16.0¢ | $12 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 14 | 92.0¢ | $11 | — |
| 15billionplus0x6406…bc04 | Yes | 14 | 78.0¢ | $11 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 40 | 22.6¢ | $9 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| JussBus0x1e58…8f63 | Yes | 10 | 90.0¢ | $8 | — |
| rar1110x1bb7…543b | Yes | 10 | 78.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xf965…ccb0 | Yes | 9 | 87.1¢ | $7 | New34 settled bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 20 | 45.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | No | 20 | 11.0¢ | $5 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 20 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 19 | 76.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 24.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 8.0¢ | $2 | — |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 16.0¢ | $2 | — |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 24.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 10 | 8.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | No | 10 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| johnashbough0xef13…63d9 | No | 9 | 22.9¢ | $2 | — |
| ju5z0v5rpcf80xce50…88ae | Yes | 2 | 93.3¢ | $2 | — |
| doudouc0x74aa…2c3f | Yes | 2 | 79.0¢ | $2 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 2 | 79.8¢ | $2 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | No | 6 | 13.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | No | 6 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| arrpadex0xecfe…74e6 | Yes | 2 | 24.0¢ | $1 | — |
| MGSIV0x10ff…de16 | Yes | 1 | 69.1¢ | $1 | — |
| wirl0x1218…5ec9 | Yes | 1 | 87.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Mitherandir0xd990…4349 | Yes | 1 | 90.4¢ | $1 | — |
| KotKot0x20c4…908e | No | 3 | 41.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xf528…7e5b | No | 2 | 74.0¢ | $0 | — |
| KRILLL0xc378…486a | No | 1 | 32.0¢ | $0 | — |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | No | 1 | 56.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Pineflow0x67ac…65ff | No | 1 | 49.0¢ | $0 | — |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | Yes | 0 | 89.5¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | No | 0 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| POB10xb431…82ec | Yes | 0 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | No | 0 | 32.2¢ | $0 | — |
| nefariouskermit0x2a6f…2351 | Yes | 0 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | No | 0 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 78.0¢ | $0 | — |
| fastandfudurious0x305d…c253 | Yes | 0 | 91.0¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 0 | 20.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Motown560x4761…9d09 | No | 0 | 75.0¢ | $0 | — |
| corsur40x5c0a…a2c3 | No | 0 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Silverf15020x9270…2b5f | No | 0 | 75.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 81.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.