Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 32,920 | 81.9¢ | $19.8K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| HDGB0x2e3e…abea | Yes | 11,229 | 15.8¢ | $4.47K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 1,100 bets |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | Yes | 9,140 | 11.2¢ | $3.64K | Positive+$2.06 per $100 · 3,296 bets |
| 0x0c88…7c45 | No | 4,739 | 69.1¢ | $2.85K | New36 settled bets |
| shovelingdigging0xe904…2d9f | Yes | 4,141 | 55.6¢ | $1.65K | Proven+$11.73 per $100 · 933 bets |
| AdjunctBias0x27e5…fb20 | No | 2,349 | 93.8¢ | $1.41K | — |
| chefradish0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | 3,380 | 21.7¢ | $1.35K | — |
| gt1970x6fd0…a85b | Yes | 2,881 | 33.1¢ | $1.15K | Positive+$1.72 per $100 · 6,907 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 1,619 | 80.9¢ | $974 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,285 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,819 | 22.2¢ | $725 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| Gambol-Riggins0xb357…a4ae | No | 764 | 66.6¢ | $460 | — |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 1,075 | 43.5¢ | $428 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 863 | 16.5¢ | $344 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| 0x8428…153e | Yes | 816 | 9.6¢ | $325 | New19 settled bets |
| liveMeta0x141d…fe86 | Yes | 795 | 10.1¢ | $317 | New26 settled bets |
| 0xc6e1…3b95 | No | 500 | 81.8¢ | $301 | Losing−$1.60 per $100 · 431 bets |
| Vagabund970xa53b…4021 | Yes | 685 | 53.2¢ | $273 | — |
| Started-with-20-USD0x4388…5050 | No | 439 | 61.1¢ | $264 | Proven+$14.81 per $100 · 3,730 bets |
| makingloot0x420c…7e29 | Yes | 650 | 56.2¢ | $259 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 430 | 37.4¢ | $259 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,847 bets |
| rip0x5950…8c48 | Yes | 571 | 54.4¢ | $228 | Proven+$2.14 per $100 · 647 bets |
| Sonny-the-Joke0x85e4…5c33 | No | 378 | 57.2¢ | $227 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 433 | 51.7¢ | $172 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 430 | 17.0¢ | $171 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| xset0x431d…8fde | No | 282 | 71.2¢ | $170 | — |
| notlosecrypto0xa83a…1e64 | Yes | 421 | 17.3¢ | $168 | — |
| kjaskdaskdadsd0x405b…755c | No | 273 | 92.6¢ | $164 | Proven+$2.51 per $100 · 517 bets |
| hfkfjh0xd570…b90a | Yes | 350 | 42.5¢ | $139 | — |
| paranoun0x6988…f556 | Yes | 349 | 42.0¢ | $139 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 230 | 91.2¢ | $138 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | Yes | 332 | 44.4¢ | $132 | — |
| Abcde123450x5d92…d298 | Yes | 300 | 51.9¢ | $120 | — |
| Liquidifier0x4818…bf0b | Yes | 288 | 40.0¢ | $115 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 3,668 bets |
| jgcrm9up97bz0xc46e…9ed8 | Yes | 278 | 9.5¢ | $111 | — |
| OverlookHotel0x1d37…f4a4 | Yes | 277 | 11.8¢ | $110 | Losing−$23.70 per $100 · 297 bets |
| ggwellplayista0x35e1…f41d | No | 181 | 89.9¢ | $109 | Losing−$1.75 per $100 · 141 bets |
| apollob94x0x8766…0ef8 | Yes | 268 | 56.0¢ | $107 | — |
| MasterOfMankind0x037d…00e3 | Yes | 260 | 19.2¢ | $104 | — |
| 0xf80e…2af8 | Yes | 243 | 7.8¢ | $97 | Proven+$16.72 per $100 · 124 bets |
| forever1230x8998…32be | No | 161 | 91.2¢ | $97 | New63 settled bets |
| JJoyce19040xe298…9ef4 | Yes | 242 | 21.0¢ | $96 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 150 | 75.0¢ | $90 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 1,163 bets |
| bssource0x5653…e1ad | No | 150 | 58.5¢ | $90 | New3 settled bets |
| OntheHedge0x6f71…b80e | No | 150 | 89.5¢ | $90 | Break-even+$0.50 per $100 · 1,619 bets |
| 0x7da9…5741 | Yes | 223 | 20.0¢ | $89 | New9 settled bets |
| parfaitparfait0x63b4…7e30 | Yes | 218 | 8.1¢ | $87 | — |
| 0x51be…2df3 | No | 142 | 71.4¢ | $85 | — |
| moneypuff0x34ce…9261 | Yes | 200 | 10.0¢ | $80 | — |
| funnyday0xd727…ecce | Yes | 200 | 43.1¢ | $80 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 11,350 bets |
| MaxCarry0xdc02…f89c | Yes | 200 | 55.0¢ | $80 | — |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | No | 132 | 74.7¢ | $79 | Positive+$3.98 per $100 · 2,984 bets |
| DC33660xfc60…fdc5 | No | 129 | 93.7¢ | $77 | — |
| lemonmina0x1ee7…4ea8 | No | 120 | 90.2¢ | $72 | Positive+$1.76 per $100 · 326 bets |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | Yes | 178 | 56.5¢ | $71 | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| mavsgseguritas0x5768…3bae | Yes | 176 | 52.1¢ | $70 | — |
| SpodermanS0xf0cf…5acc | Yes | 153 | 7.1¢ | $61 | — |
| Happygamer0x06af…3741 | No | 100 | 92.0¢ | $60 | Proven+$2.64 per $100 · 531 bets |
| 0x4015…f4a9 | No | 100 | 89.3¢ | $60 | New32 settled bets |
| 0x5201…34c3 | No | 100 | 86.6¢ | $60 | Break-even−$0.51 per $100 · 3,628 bets |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 150 | 41.9¢ | $60 | — |
| moongatandAk0xffd3…c80f | Yes | 149 | 14.0¢ | $59 | — |
| roypaj0xe19b…0c89 | Yes | 146 | 45.2¢ | $58 | — |
| 0xb2a9…25d5 | No | 95 | 77.9¢ | $57 | — |
| wind20050x5e7f…7bfd | Yes | 140 | 8.9¢ | $56 | — |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | Yes | 125 | 40.0¢ | $50 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| APaintnobroke0x5824…69a9 | No | 80 | 91.0¢ | $48 | — |
| omnikdy0x7de1…c6cc | No | 80 | 65.4¢ | $48 | — |
| StanGrossman0xaf35…9a45 | Yes | 117 | 20.0¢ | $47 | Positive+$59.71 per $100 · 746 bets |
| 0x1ef01de817862024966e8242e923a60x0c23…01c6 | Yes | 114 | 52.2¢ | $46 | — |
| moneybagsmannion0x7984…638a | Yes | 100 | 14.0¢ | $40 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 100 | 48.2¢ | $40 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 99 | 28.7¢ | $39 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| ct19890xc1ce…2e83 | Yes | 88 | 21.0¢ | $35 | — |
| the-special0x7a16…4616 | Yes | 86 | 7.3¢ | $34 | — |
| PABLOESCOBAR250x6b49…2e46 | Yes | 81 | 45.1¢ | $32 | Losing−$1.82 per $100 · 615 bets |
| Sweetcheeks0xd15c…a712 | Yes | 80 | 66.1¢ | $32 | — |
| dixiedox0x86c1…cace | No | 51 | 60.3¢ | $31 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 188 bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | No | 50 | 72.6¢ | $30 | — |
| k7X9mP2qW40x7994…c512 | Yes | 73 | 38.7¢ | $29 | Proven+$2.87 per $100 · 1,430 bets |
| Gaujmalietis0xd883…4fd7 | No | 46 | 92.5¢ | $28 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,573 bets |
| Coconuts890x42e5…5ade | No | 44 | 58.3¢ | $26 | Proven+$11.12 per $100 · 147 bets |
| 0x36cd…89b6 | No | 40 | 59.1¢ | $24 | — |
| mathleca0x0e08…9043 | No | 40 | 91.4¢ | $24 | — |
| Justsomeguy-4370x32f4…c885 | No | 39 | 55.2¢ | $23 | Losing−$10.91 per $100 · 3,188 bets |
| explorer2210x7fa5…7621 | No | 31 | 93.7¢ | $18 | Losing−$4.04 per $100 · 692 bets |
| BetterFish0xc412…592d | No | 23 | 91.2¢ | $14 | — |
| Mecky20x422a…62bd | No | 21 | 68.3¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x2605…cb76 | No | 20 | 50.6¢ | $12 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 20 | 91.4¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0xa1c7…bdbb | No | 18 | 56.0¢ | $11 | New83 settled bets |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | No | 16 | 33.7¢ | $9 | Proven+$14.71 per $100 · 249 bets |
| alcohol40xf8a5…014b | No | 13 | 93.1¢ | $8 | — |
| plyworke0020x6e63…07ae | No | 12 | 73.0¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 666 bets |
| try4tr0xde5c…0f6f | No | 12 | 86.8¢ | $7 | — |
| vAIctor0x9bc3…d392 | No | 10 | 91.0¢ | $6 | — |
| yrnmv0xcc37…afb6 | No | 10 | 51.4¢ | $6 | — |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | No | 9 | 58.2¢ | $5 | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| 0xb565…d8ba | No | 5 | 50.9¢ | $3 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.