Market · 4 of 8 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.41% in October?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 01:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 738 | 36.4¢ | $251 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,565+ bets · updating |
| Vagabund970xa53b…4021 | No | 266 | 64.6¢ | $176 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 200 | 73.0¢ | $132 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,098 bets |
| almosthere0xbd2b…1a1b | No | 197 | 61.0¢ | $130 | Positive+$6.09 per $100 · 137 bets |
| johnashbough0xef13…63d9 | No | 133 | 59.6¢ | $88 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 90 | 49.4¢ | $59 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| cpctbusiness0x8807…d08a | No | 44 | 67.1¢ | $29 | — |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | Yes | 67 | 45.5¢ | $23 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 33 | 68.2¢ | $22 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| timeistmoney0xf0ed…87b1 | Yes | 60 | 31.7¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 30 | 72.0¢ | $20 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | No | 28 | 47.5¢ | $19 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | Yes | 50 | 40.0¢ | $17 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 42 | 39.2¢ | $14 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 20 | 67.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | 30 | 33.0¢ | $10 | — |
| oneoftheppl0x4d1d…01ac | No | 15 | 63.2¢ | $10 | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 7,403 bets |
| flexer780x9422…f273 | Yes | 29 | 41.0¢ | $10 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | Yes | 25 | 51.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| 0xf528…7e5b | No | 12 | 74.0¢ | $8 | — |
| erdos-baconator0x3a5b…9375 | No | 10 | 58.2¢ | $7 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 16 | 35.8¢ | $5 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | No | 8 | 72.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| MrYanDao0x468b…68a5 | Yes | 14 | 34.1¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.07 per $100 · 2,638 bets |
| blisik0x93ed…7e69 | No | 7 | 58.2¢ | $5 | — |
| rocky420010x5028…91c5 | Yes | 8 | 29.2¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 12,178 bets |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Yes | 6 | 18.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 6 | 30.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| UpTheStairs0x8bac…5b0e | Yes | 3 | 28.6¢ | $1 | — |
| kor-and-m0x0b14…f1f5 | No | 1 | 67.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 1 | 12.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| xixihaha0090xf17d…6f86 | Yes | 1 | 36.1¢ | $0 | — |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 1 | 34.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| G24L80x8a51…51a2 | No | 0 | 36.1¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 70.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | No | 0 | 71.0¢ | $0 | — |
| mavsgseguritas0x5768…3bae | Yes | 0 | 44.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | No | 0 | 66.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 372318360xb78b…2802 | Yes | 0 | 54.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.