Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 13:37 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 6,634 | 46.8¢ | $2.72K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| shovelingdigging0xe904…2d9f | Yes | 2,818 | 50.6¢ | $1.66K | Proven+$11.73 per $100 · 933 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 2,416 | 76.8¢ | $1.43K | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 2,365 | 77.9¢ | $1.4K | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| rip0x5950…8c48 | No | 2,687 | 25.8¢ | $1.1K | Proven+$2.14 per $100 · 647 bets |
| 0x0c88…7c45 | No | 2,102 | 48.8¢ | $862 | New36 settled bets |
| cookedquail0xff06…2f60 | Yes | 921 | 80.3¢ | $543 | Proven+$43.19 per $100 · 119 bets |
| 0x440e…4907 | Yes | 814 | 69.5¢ | $480 | — |
| commeowder0xd06f…d4a6 | No | 1,038 | 37.3¢ | $425 | Proven+$3.25 per $100 · 2,064 bets |
| k7X9mP2qW40x7994…c512 | No | 1,011 | 36.7¢ | $415 | Proven+$2.87 per $100 · 1,430 bets |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 524 | 57.4¢ | $309 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 468 | 65.5¢ | $276 | — |
| crayven0x2aac…dfad | Yes | 437 | 69.6¢ | $258 | Proven+$5.71 per $100 · 922 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 430 | 59.9¢ | $254 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,713 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 424 | 53.4¢ | $250 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| Abcde123450x5d92…d298 | Yes | 305 | 70.3¢ | $180 | — |
| hfkfjh0xd570…b90a | Yes | 300 | 67.0¢ | $177 | — |
| rocky420230xd035…f165 | Yes | 298 | 80.3¢ | $176 | — |
| Started-with-20-USD0x4388…5050 | No | 390 | 53.7¢ | $160 | Proven+$14.81 per $100 · 3,730 bets |
| GotGreenWood0x88d9…35c7 | No | 331 | 22.3¢ | $136 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 220 | 66.0¢ | $130 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| DTF260x586f…b928 | Yes | 200 | 60.0¢ | $118 | — |
| funnyday0xd727…ecce | Yes | 200 | 53.5¢ | $118 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 11,350 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 252 | 46.8¢ | $103 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| dave123450xc320…7637 | Yes | 173 | 71.2¢ | $102 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 150 | 58.2¢ | $89 | — |
| jebiga0010xb2ed…0584 | Yes | 144 | 73.1¢ | $85 | — |
| 0x3fdf…2bac | No | 201 | 38.6¢ | $82 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 2,544 bets |
| MasterOfMankind0x037d…00e3 | No | 183 | 15.0¢ | $75 | — |
| Scr-0xec71…83ef | Yes | 116 | 57.2¢ | $68 | — |
| gaut63750x5874…05f7 | Yes | 101 | 61.1¢ | $60 | Positive+$3.88 per $100 · 2,453 bets |
| 0x1bb3…b6f2 | Yes | 100 | 51.2¢ | $59 | — |
| ply-top3-clost-twet0x0b4c…4277 | Yes | 90 | 82.0¢ | $53 | — |
| plytest20x08b4…624e | Yes | 89 | 83.0¢ | $52 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 80 | 67.1¢ | $47 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 79 | 66.8¢ | $47 | Losing−$2.60 per $100 · 123,566 bets |
| KingMushroom0x5c96…7f3a | Yes | 79 | 64.2¢ | $47 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 100 | 53.0¢ | $41 | — |
| SafeVaultBlue0x977f…0981 | Yes | 62 | 68.5¢ | $37 | — |
| FayeValentine0x9f47…457f | Yes | 61 | 55.8¢ | $36 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 61 | 75.5¢ | $36 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| pump.princess0x3fa1…89df | Yes | 54 | 83.7¢ | $32 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | Yes | 51 | 70.0¢ | $30 | — |
| Andycjs900xc5d1…dabd | Yes | 50 | 61.0¢ | $30 | — |
| unclefei0280xf88b…0ed2 | Yes | 50 | 72.0¢ | $30 | — |
| lxbear19870x8cac…9f3b | Yes | 44 | 66.1¢ | $26 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 40 | 73.0¢ | $24 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | Yes | 38 | 78.8¢ | $22 | — |
| Adventure1420x414b…2374 | No | 48 | 64.2¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xa578…6702 | Yes | 31 | 46.0¢ | $18 | — |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 28 | 67.0¢ | $17 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | No | 40 | 35.0¢ | $16 | — |
| MattyHBiggly0xc301…b52f | Yes | 27 | 52.2¢ | $16 | — |
| PetterS0x5366…a354 | No | 36 | 57.1¢ | $15 | — |
| AusMaximus0x0b46…625f | Yes | 24 | 55.7¢ | $14 | Losing−$18.19 per $100 · 462 bets |
| DogDooDoo0x6843…e2d5 | Yes | 23 | 45.2¢ | $13 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 32 | 51.6¢ | $13 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| 0x2de5…d6f2 | Yes | 22 | 69.1¢ | $13 | — |
| 0xbdfa…61b1 | Yes | 21 | 61.2¢ | $13 | — |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | No | 30 | 61.2¢ | $12 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| 0x7311…9e60 | No | 30 | 35.1¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xd10a…b9cd | No | 30 | 48.0¢ | $12 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 20 | 67.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| DW10x8041…fc83 | Yes | 20 | 50.2¢ | $12 | Positive+$1.63 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| hih9990xd2fe…25d6 | Yes | 20 | 48.5¢ | $12 | — |
| pwm2vape0xf84f…8a87 | Yes | 20 | 61.7¢ | $12 | — |
| yrnmv0xcc37…afb6 | Yes | 16 | 66.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x62a5…3365 | No | 22 | 56.2¢ | $9 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | No | 20 | 51.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 20 | 52.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 20 | 37.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| alualu280x16ab…c87e | No | 19 | 53.2¢ | $8 | — |
| nivek210xc5d8…0e95 | No | 17 | 17.7¢ | $7 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 11 | 69.1¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| ggwellplayista0x35e1…f41d | No | 10 | 36.1¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.75 per $100 · 141 bets |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 10 | 41.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.88 per $100 · 1,656 bets |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 23.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 3,847 bets |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | No | 8 | 35.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 2,068 bets |
| 0x614d…562f | No | 6 | 34.1¢ | $2 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | No | 6 | 27.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| 0xd754…0bd6 | No | 5 | 47.2¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xb1fa…3b9a | No | 5 | 38.2¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xfa01…800a | No | 5 | 41.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x8b6d…db9f | No | 4 | 39.2¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x8206…4bf9 | No | 4 | 40.2¢ | $2 | — |
| stanmktmaker0xf0ce…ee0b | No | 4 | 48.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x2305…2717 | No | 4 | 34.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x58f2…f136 | No | 4 | 40.2¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x7add…03d5 | No | 4 | 34.1¢ | $1 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 4 | 33.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xea96…e340 | No | 4 | 40.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa133…1861 | No | 3 | 34.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xe2f6…482c | No | 3 | 40.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb1e1…c2f6 | No | 3 | 34.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb2ea…81a1 | No | 3 | 36.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x286f…3f8b | No | 3 | 40.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x528a…ca7b | No | 3 | 40.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9128…e3ad | No | 2 | 47.2¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.