Market · 3 of 8 outcomes
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cookedquail0xff06…2f60 | Yes | 406 | 56.7¢ | $177 | Proven+$43.19 per $100 · 119 bets |
| almosthere0xbd2b…1a1b | No | 267 | 45.0¢ | $151 | Positive+$6.09 per $100 · 137 bets |
| rocky420010x5028…91c5 | No | 170 | 43.0¢ | $96 | — |
| johnashbough0xef13…63d9 | No | 102 | 48.7¢ | $57 | — |
| oneoftheppl0x4d1d…01ac | No | 100 | 34.1¢ | $56 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 7,373 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 100 | 41.0¢ | $56 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,042 bets |
| alamedamemola0x037b…a36f | Yes | 100 | 53.0¢ | $44 | — |
| tacor0x033b…5fd4 | Yes | 70 | 57.5¢ | $30 | — |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | No | 50 | 37.0¢ | $28 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 60 | 50.6¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 122,975+ bets · updating |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 40 | 44.0¢ | $22 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| hansonjc0xb008…7781 | Yes | 50 | 58.0¢ | $22 | — |
| plytest20x08b4…624e | Yes | 40 | 58.0¢ | $17 | — |
| ply-top3-clost-twet0x0b4c…4277 | Yes | 40 | 58.0¢ | $17 | — |
| pump.princess0x3fa1…89df | Yes | 38 | 60.2¢ | $17 | — |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | No | 28 | 53.4¢ | $16 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 30 | 56.2¢ | $13 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| TruthSignalFramework0x7e64…c43e | Yes | 26 | 58.0¢ | $11 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 20 | 55.0¢ | $11 | — |
| mavsgseguritas0x5768…3bae | Yes | 24 | 45.9¢ | $11 | — |
| financegaaaydog0xe2a3…8e01 | No | 17 | 45.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xfd74…1919 | Yes | 20 | 43.0¢ | $9 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 11 | 44.0¢ | $6 | — |
| peachgoma0x2e3d…6aa1 | No | 5 | 55.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5 | Yes | 5 | 60.2¢ | $2 | — |
| UpTheStairs0x8bac…5b0e | No | 4 | 47.0¢ | $2 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 4 | 61.9¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xea24…2cc8 | No | 1 | 43.0¢ | $0 | — |
| G24L80x8a51…51a2 | Yes | 0 | 55.2¢ | $0 | — |
| kor-and-m0x0b14…f1f5 | Yes | 0 | 58.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 0 | 55.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 57.0¢ | $0 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 0 | 66.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.68 per $100 · 14,155 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.