Market
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 17,566 | 47.3¢ | $14.1K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| TralaleloTralalala0x5d91…3578 | No | 8,192 | 50.5¢ | $6.59K | — |
| DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1 | Yes | 32,433 | 51.5¢ | $6.32K | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 3,946 bets |
| AChad0x98d1…ed25 | No | 3,622 | 45.8¢ | $2.92K | — |
| Gladius70xc932…e6a5 | No | 3,579 | 72.7¢ | $2.88K | Proven+$6.20 per $100 · 264 bets |
| FoolingAround0x0f4f…7039 | No | 1,529 | 45.7¢ | $1.23K | — |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 1,222 | 50.3¢ | $983 | — |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 1,200 | 46.4¢ | $966 | — |
| 0x066f…2e56 | Yes | 4,829 | 55.1¢ | $942 | — |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 1,100 | 51.0¢ | $886 | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,029 | 61.8¢ | $829 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 1,013 | 45.7¢ | $815 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,289 bets |
| neverl0se0xba5e…6c40 | No | 809 | 43.3¢ | $651 | — |
| DoubleAgentKrasnov0x6d8c…b79a | No | 751 | 61.0¢ | $604 | Proven+$14.14 per $100 · 210 bets |
| trader-c52fead80xc52f…0981 | No | 680 | 48.0¢ | $547 | — |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 2,790 | 37.2¢ | $544 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 600 | 48.0¢ | $483 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| Coldonn1010xe6fd…8bc3 | No | 543 | 48.0¢ | $437 | — |
| Seriip0x1765…d450 | Yes | 1,866 | 27.7¢ | $364 | — |
| AlexZA30x5c5b…1a6d | No | 368 | 45.6¢ | $296 | Positive+$4.62 per $100 · 181 bets |
| BeastAnalytics0x151d…4497 | No | 345 | 58.0¢ | $278 | Positive+$1.26 per $100 · 208 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 305 | 51.5¢ | $246 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| AskGloria0x90b7…0b0d | No | 300 | 69.8¢ | $242 | — |
| GabiFP0x65d4…b7e3 | No | 260 | 77.0¢ | $209 | Proven+$11.19 per $100 · 376 bets |
| 0xafa7…6e67 | No | 253 | 49.8¢ | $204 | — |
| snus.eater0xa3ce…f829 | No | 228 | 44.0¢ | $184 | — |
| firewalker9230xef54…c997 | No | 200 | 45.0¢ | $161 | — |
| MusakaKing0x7727…15a4 | Yes | 625 | 38.5¢ | $122 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 617 | 32.0¢ | $120 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,027 bets |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 500 | 45.0¢ | $97 | — |
| Den-040x6fca…7477 | No | 118 | 55.0¢ | $95 | — |
| 0xd11c…0d06 | No | 111 | 49.5¢ | $89 | — |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5 | No | 104 | 77.0¢ | $84 | Losing−$5.82 per $100 · 2,228 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 100 | 58.0¢ | $81 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | No | 93 | 54.0¢ | $75 | — |
| 0x300f…d366 | No | 92 | 77.2¢ | $74 | — |
| 0xa0b9…6048 | No | 80 | 70.9¢ | $64 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 300 | 30.0¢ | $59 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| 300PS0x8f41…260e | Yes | 300 | 55.0¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.44 per $100 · 4,600 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 300 | 24.0¢ | $58 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| Oskoreiter0x4518…1cac | Yes | 288 | 57.3¢ | $56 | — |
| 0xe7a1…965f | No | 67 | 68.6¢ | $54 | — |
| GekkeHenkie230x5c3a…d4f4 | No | 60 | 65.0¢ | $48 | New27 settled bets |
| altar070x7028…e0e9 | No | 60 | 75.0¢ | $48 | Losing−$5.28 per $100 · 1,123 bets |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | Yes | 245 | 42.1¢ | $48 | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 223 | 19.0¢ | $44 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| 0xc9db…7a75 | No | 48 | 50.9¢ | $38 | — |
| asterley0xe762…064b | No | 47 | 51.0¢ | $38 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 187 | 20.0¢ | $36 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| PavelSvimbov0x3587…0d34 | Yes | 162 | 27.1¢ | $32 | — |
| 0xb15d…558a | No | 31 | 67.9¢ | $25 | — |
| rocky420180xeda0…7dff | Yes | 118 | 56.0¢ | $23 | — |
| trader-1be224690x1be2…e4c7 | No | 26 | 47.4¢ | $21 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 100 | 31.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | Yes | 100 | 45.0¢ | $20 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| -BOB-0xb084…b64f | Yes | 90 | 44.4¢ | $18 | — |
| 0x2d75…4e46 | No | 21 | 77.4¢ | $17 | Proven+$8.58 per $100 · 182 bets |
| Dodexo0xebdf…ac87 | Yes | 81 | 49.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Bang9870xdd8d…f2e0 | No | 20 | 51.0¢ | $16 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 79 | 31.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$3.65 per $100 · 14,746 bets |
| StormRazer0xa937…4152 | No | 18 | 63.0¢ | $15 | — |
| senseless170xe2ee…60b8 | No | 18 | 50.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xb0c3…1127 | No | 17 | 50.3¢ | $13 | — |
| mcphearson990xedc4…be57 | No | 16 | 61.0¢ | $13 | — |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | Yes | 56 | 51.0¢ | $11 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| Voltoger0xfffe…4e6c | Yes | 51 | 55.0¢ | $10 | — |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | Yes | 50 | 39.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xd10a…b9cd | Yes | 50 | 39.0¢ | $10 | — |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 50 | 31.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xe8c4…ea5c | Yes | 50 | 30.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x00cd…c0ae | Yes | 50 | 39.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.01 per $100 · 4,124 bets |
| 0x1bb1…ca54 | No | 12 | 42.2¢ | $10 | — |
| SPLPB0xdf0e…c02b | Yes | 46 | 28.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.91 per $100 · 5,696 bets |
| Pantheon10x606e…6b3a | Yes | 40 | 58.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 477 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 40 | 42.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| Onswaggie0x9b08…4632 | No | 9 | 68.0¢ | $7 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 6 | 76.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| Unbotheredking0xdb49…c150 | Yes | 23 | 44.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Pola3tst0x57ee…8416 | No | 6 | 54.0¢ | $4 | — |
| qifi0xd42f…1316 | No | 5 | 77.4¢ | $4 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 20 | 23.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| spartacchempion0x806f…418e | Yes | 19 | 20.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x2f77…4b79 | Yes | 15 | 50.6¢ | $3 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 3 | 77.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| tytryrt0x07e0…e1e8 | Yes | 10 | 56.0¢ | $2 | — |
| bohdancio0xab79…f2ed | Yes | 10 | 21.0¢ | $2 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | Yes | 9 | 32.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 8 | 30.4¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Policy0xa7f8…7446 | Yes | 7 | 57.0¢ | $1 | — |
| SonataElPatrona0x0dea…f9cd | Yes | 6 | 50.0¢ | $1 | — |
| oxEA405Cc8b16aBdD29023FeB5ba626189815A86b90xea40…86b9 | Yes | 6 | 30.2¢ | $1 | — |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | Yes | 5 | 20.0¢ | $1 | — |
| dixonmias0x3c1e…58fe | Yes | 5 | 48.0¢ | $1 | — |
| congmqian-gendan0x9e16…7a42 | Yes | 5 | 39.0¢ | $1 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 5 | 56.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0xccc4…4193 | Yes | 5 | 21.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 47,456 bets |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | Yes | 3 | 54.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 991 bets |
| wweat0x270b…e632 | Yes | 2 | 55.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.