Market · 4 of 4 outcomes
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 19:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anotherpatrick0xc984…37ca | No | 3,235 | 51.7¢ | $2.94K | — |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 2,734 | 68.0¢ | $2.49K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| Smart-bettor70x7845…417b | No | 1,726 | 85.9¢ | $1.57K | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 525 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 600 | 63.3¢ | $546 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 345 | 56.8¢ | $314 | — |
| 0xf257…9420 | Yes | 2,803 | 47.7¢ | $252 | — |
| David60xaa93…c3db | No | 213 | 94.0¢ | $194 | — |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | Yes | 1,720 | 41.4¢ | $155 | — |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | No | 92 | 75.0¢ | $84 | — |
| 5.6sol0x5709…22c3 | Yes | 808 | 18.1¢ | $73 | — |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | Yes | 753 | 32.0¢ | $68 | Proven+$12.28 per $100 · 3,035 bets |
| controls0x165e…f5aa | Yes | 750 | 14.0¢ | $68 | — |
| altar070x7028…e0e9 | No | 51 | 68.6¢ | $46 | Losing−$5.28 per $100 · 1,123 bets |
| 0xa0b9…6048 | No | 50 | 92.0¢ | $46 | — |
| 0x720a…aa3f | Yes | 500 | 13.0¢ | $45 | — |
| Brokkk0xae78…9275 | No | 34 | 88.7¢ | $31 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 30 | 46.0¢ | $27 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 29 | 65.4¢ | $27 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,956 bets |
| asterley0xe762…064b | Yes | 279 | 38.1¢ | $25 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 240 | 18.2¢ | $22 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| geonb0x7558…970a | No | 22 | 89.0¢ | $20 | New42 settled bets |
| singularity.0xc018…ead1 | No | 21 | 94.0¢ | $19 | — |
| sanlitou2026p10x7a8e…89d8 | No | 21 | 92.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x0524…1479 | No | 21 | 92.5¢ | $19 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 10,876 bets |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 20 | 51.0¢ | $18 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 200 | 53.5¢ | $18 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| JJJAY0x2889…fc69 | Yes | 182 | 13.6¢ | $16 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 156 | 25.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$2.56 per $100 · 124,139 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 151 | 50.5¢ | $14 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | Yes | 117 | 41.4¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| B1zz0xcd64…3081 | No | 10 | 59.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xef03…1fbf | No | 10 | 87.0¢ | $9 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 100 | 24.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| NoPasaran50x29a1…5645 | Yes | 89 | 46.8¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.30 per $100 · 733 bets |
| Anonnnn24090x9b22…3a92 | Yes | 82 | 45.6¢ | $7 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 7 | 92.0¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 70 | 46.7¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.12 per $100 · 12,743 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 7 | 46.5¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| mp5misha0x772b…edd5 | No | 6 | 65.0¢ | $6 | — |
| -BOB-0xb084…b64f | Yes | 61 | 49.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xf453…a674 | Yes | 56 | 30.7¢ | $5 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 52 | 7.6¢ | $5 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Greysok0xe443…c065 | Yes | 51 | 47.0¢ | $5 | — |
| congmqian-gendan0x9e16…7a42 | No | 5 | 64.0¢ | $5 | — |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | No | 4 | 47.5¢ | $4 | — |
| thunderquack0x07fd…ad26 | No | 4 | 68.0¢ | $3 | Proven+$5.90 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0x8e31…30b1 | Yes | 33 | 15.0¢ | $3 | — |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 2 | 43.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| 0xafa7…6e67 | No | 2 | 48.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ObamAisAhomo0xe913…4b84 | Yes | 10 | 40.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x7082…3a10 | Yes | 10 | 56.3¢ | $1 | — |
| spaceloaf0xa99c…08b4 | Yes | 9 | 56.0¢ | $1 | — |
| SonataElPatrona0x0dea…f9cd | Yes | 6 | 40.0¢ | $1 | — |
| AlexZA30x5c5b…1a6d | No | 1 | 43.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.62 per $100 · 181 bets |
| KiraHK10xa87f…864d | Yes | 5 | 53.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sovi110xac8e…e2cf | Yes | 5 | 56.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf12f…7a8c | Yes | 3 | 40.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca75…0a64 | No | 0 | 53.0¢ | $0 | — |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | Yes | 2 | 45.5¢ | $0 | — |
| AskGloria0x90b7…0b0d | No | 0 | 55.7¢ | $0 | — |
| POB-T0x41e6…66b7 | Yes | 1 | 14.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.82 per $100 · 8,567 bets |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 0 | 42.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| high-beta-trading-only0x703d…80f6 | No | 0 | 54.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 22.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,099 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 0 | 36.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.