Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 21:38 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anotherpatrick0xc984…37ca | No | 4,119 | 59.0¢ | $2.7K | — |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 2,182 | 42.1¢ | $1.43K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| AnonDaveDave0x98bc…a1da | No | 1,306 | 26.8¢ | $856 | — |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 907 | 16.5¢ | $594 | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| 0xf257…9420 | Yes | 1,547 | 59.4¢ | $534 | — |
| 5.6sol0x5709…22c3 | Yes | 1,500 | 55.7¢ | $517 | — |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | Yes | 1,160 | 58.1¢ | $400 | — |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | Yes | 1,020 | 74.7¢ | $352 | Proven+$12.28 per $100 · 3,035 bets |
| controls0x165e…f5aa | Yes | 999 | 41.0¢ | $345 | — |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 500 | 22.0¢ | $328 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 945 | 55.1¢ | $326 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,166 bets |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 469 | 26.0¢ | $307 | — |
| NiceDuckBro0xb26c…0eb0 | Yes | 862 | 30.8¢ | $297 | — |
| Poivre0x714f…66d5 | No | 400 | 26.0¢ | $262 | Positive+$4.99 per $100 · 1,435 bets |
| JJJAY0x2889…fc69 | No | 343 | 53.3¢ | $224 | — |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 559 | 54.5¢ | $193 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| 0x720a…aa3f | Yes | 540 | 43.2¢ | $186 | — |
| randomWalkingShrimp0x30d1…4525 | Yes | 530 | 45.8¢ | $183 | Proven+$8.22 per $100 · 1,875 bets |
| B1zz0xcd64…3081 | No | 249 | 16.8¢ | $163 | — |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 445 | 74.0¢ | $154 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| Dodexo0xebdf…ac87 | No | 200 | 31.0¢ | $131 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 120 | 25.4¢ | $79 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 3,067 bets |
| 0xa0b9…6048 | No | 120 | 66.2¢ | $79 | — |
| 0xc048…27d0 | No | 103 | 57.8¢ | $68 | — |
| asterley0xe762…064b | Yes | 189 | 69.6¢ | $65 | — |
| Anonnnn24090x9b22…3a92 | Yes | 188 | 77.8¢ | $65 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 85 | 19.4¢ | $55 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | Yes | 140 | 57.0¢ | $48 | — |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 68 | 17.7¢ | $44 | — |
| 0x0524…1479 | Yes | 126 | 68.1¢ | $43 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 10,876 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 60 | 65.5¢ | $39 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| altar070x7028…e0e9 | No | 59 | 29.0¢ | $38 | Losing−$5.28 per $100 · 1,123 bets |
| doctorno990x4e2d…4936 | Yes | 101 | 78.1¢ | $35 | — |
| Donny.T0x8190…b247 | Yes | 100 | 50.0¢ | $35 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 764 bets |
| NoPasaran50x29a1…5645 | Yes | 75 | 68.9¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.30 per $100 · 733 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 65 | 34.6¢ | $22 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,298 bets |
| Laribobibo0x721a…9295 | Yes | 53 | 39.0¢ | $18 | — |
| gotonetry330x66e0…e8f0 | Yes | 50 | 85.2¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 729 bets |
| 0x9de6…e7f0 | Yes | 50 | 56.0¢ | $17 | — |
| -BOB-0xb084…b64f | Yes | 39 | 77.0¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x8bb7…820c | No | 20 | 20.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | No | 20 | 31.0¢ | $13 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 20 | 69.0¢ | $13 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0xafa7…6e67 | No | 16 | 19.0¢ | $11 | — |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 16 | 22.6¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | Yes | 30 | 63.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| WagnerSR0x610e…fd59 | Yes | 29 | 35.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 12 | 65.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| AlexZA30x5c5b…1a6d | No | 12 | 19.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$4.62 per $100 · 181 bets |
| SayGoodbyeFireflies0x0dcd…9910 | Yes | 20 | 81.7¢ | $7 | New35 settled bets |
| IamBatman-0xf9e1…e46f | Yes | 20 | 60.0¢ | $7 | — |
| odimgraf0xf0c3…68d9 | No | 10 | 66.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 9 | 28.5¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| AnaFav0x41cb…a5df | Yes | 14 | 32.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$7.34 per $100 · 3,469 bets |
| 0x8e31…30b1 | Yes | 12 | 42.2¢ | $4 | — |
| congmqian-gendan0x9e16…7a42 | No | 5 | 19.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | No | 5 | 21.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x7082…3a10 | Yes | 5 | 60.3¢ | $2 | — |
| EndofBeginning880x7828…381b | Yes | 5 | 60.0¢ | $2 | — |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | Yes | 5 | 50.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| KiraHK10xa87f…864d | Yes | 5 | 80.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xbcd7…5c78 | Yes | 4 | 78.4¢ | $1 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 3 | 36.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| 0xd217…a747 | Yes | 1 | 78.0¢ | $0 | — |
| oxEA405Cc8b16aBdD29023FeB5ba626189815A86b90xea40…86b9 | Yes | 1 | 54.0¢ | $0 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 1 | 36.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 22.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| POB10xb431…82ec | No | 0 | 21.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | No | 0 | 55.7¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| sdfsdfsdfsdf20x321e…9292 | Yes | 0 | 60.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.75 per $100 · 16,321 bets |
| SubashChandraBose0xf01a…f231 | Yes | 0 | 68.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Pol7StrategyBuilder0x2a20…89d2 | No | 0 | 73.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.