Market
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 05:02 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OraculumNobius0xd25b…9f3d | No | 40,119 | 86.9¢ | $38.3K | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 26,357 bets |
| leqso04100xd5c9…586a | No | 8,791 | 91.0¢ | $8.4K | Losing−$6.41 per $100 · 171 bets |
| 0xbfba…7567 | No | 6,941 | 86.0¢ | $6.63K | — |
| vovatoxic0xf989…47cc | No | 2,434 | 82.2¢ | $2.32K | Proven+$31.56 per $100 · 158 bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 1,827 | 86.0¢ | $1.74K | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 1,370 | 87.2¢ | $1.31K | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| bifurcatio0xa9ea…1043 | No | 1,178 | 84.9¢ | $1.12K | — |
| slatfatf0xb93e…b8fd | Yes | 23,205 | 12.9¢ | $1.04K | New16 settled bets |
| KrdRL0x63c1…70d7 | No | 1,046 | 86.0¢ | $999 | Proven+$6.14 per $100 · 108 bets |
| zanmurea0xdee6…c5c5 | No | 871 | 83.9¢ | $832 | — |
| tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5 | Yes | 17,622 | 9.0¢ | $793 | Break-even−$0.43 per $100 · 1,083 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | Yes | 14,183 | 14.8¢ | $638 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| VibeyQuant0x1f85…a51b | No | 500 | 86.0¢ | $478 | Proven+$3.09 per $100 · 1,520 bets |
| Adamtulu0xd294…4786 | No | 445 | 82.3¢ | $425 | — |
| rocky420250x8929…733e | No | 327 | 91.1¢ | $312 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 300 | 91.7¢ | $286 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| latvianboy0x5bae…2955 | No | 296 | 86.5¢ | $283 | New25 settled bets |
| radek440x153b…65d8 | No | 287 | 79.7¢ | $274 | Losing−$2.78 per $100 · 371 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 151 | 91.9¢ | $144 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,993 bets |
| Proton140x5c40…09a6 | No | 143 | 83.8¢ | $137 | — |
| 0xc497…6b48 | No | 127 | 79.0¢ | $121 | — |
| ba190010x0b96…78cf | No | 122 | 82.0¢ | $116 | — |
| 0x09d2…a3ac | No | 120 | 83.0¢ | $115 | Losing−$11.06 per $100 · 306 bets |
| 0x62c2…d895 | No | 119 | 84.0¢ | $114 | — |
| 0x94a8…5227 | No | 118 | 85.0¢ | $112 | — |
| KalmarUA0x3ce8…b14b | No | 115 | 87.0¢ | $110 | — |
| AlexFromRussia0xc2eb…c299 | No | 110 | 81.5¢ | $105 | — |
| justme0030xcb89…a2e8 | No | 109 | 87.0¢ | $104 | Losing−$1.29 per $100 · 343 bets |
| compute0xd0d9…d6db | Yes | 2,192 | 8.9¢ | $99 | Positive+$5.67 per $100 · 360 bets |
| 0xf040…d11f | No | 102 | 84.3¢ | $98 | — |
| Sunshine9630x5018…398b | No | 102 | 81.0¢ | $97 | — |
| MuchAdo2BRN2B0xfad4…a210 | Yes | 2,140 | 16.4¢ | $96 | — |
| tttt1230xdf40…38b8 | No | 100 | 87.0¢ | $96 | Positive+$2.19 per $100 · 3,002 bets |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 2,000 | 9.0¢ | $90 | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 31,074 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | Yes | 1,597 | 14.1¢ | $72 | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| Olekskho0x0368…1d1d | No | 73 | 82.3¢ | $70 | — |
| JPLP0x0e32…535b | No | 65 | 80.3¢ | $62 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 1,597 bets |
| opus280x0575…5199 | No | 63 | 80.0¢ | $60 | — |
| 0x919d…60e1 | Yes | 1,300 | 21.0¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 1,345 bets |
| 0x1102…5fe6 | No | 60 | 84.0¢ | $57 | — |
| Jnorm5680x3797…8150 | No | 59 | 94.0¢ | $56 | — |
| 0xd428…4527 | No | 57 | 88.0¢ | $54 | — |
| 0xfc63…596f | No | 49 | 82.0¢ | $47 | — |
| 0xf34c…76be | Yes | 872 | 17.6¢ | $39 | — |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | No | 36 | 88.0¢ | $34 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 98,025+ bets · updating |
| kstc190xd60d…19a9 | No | 32 | 95.0¢ | $30 | — |
| nftmaker170x41b1…c51a | No | 30 | 86.0¢ | $29 | — |
| gotonetry330x66e0…e8f0 | No | 30 | 94.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 729 bets |
| sergiok140x4cc7…87bf | No | 27 | 93.0¢ | $26 | New10 settled bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 563 | 6.7¢ | $25 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| 0x519b…84d3 | No | 26 | 88.0¢ | $25 | — |
| grechnev0x2f05…18d0 | No | 26 | 78.0¢ | $24 | — |
| 0xe5c2…2b81 | No | 25 | 85.0¢ | $24 | — |
| axiol0x8217…4936 | No | 24 | 83.0¢ | $23 | Break-even+$0.67 per $100 · 7,573 bets |
| dev00xc069…80eb | No | 24 | 83.0¢ | $23 | — |
| AltairRussia0xa681…8b89 | Yes | 500 | 16.0¢ | $23 | — |
| Drewerk210xb34a…6e39 | No | 23 | 86.0¢ | $22 | — |
| trubushgermai0xaa4b…1381 | No | 22 | 88.0¢ | $21 | — |
| wl870x6a22…ae4b | No | 18 | 84.0¢ | $17 | Proven+$26.39 per $100 · 134 bets |
| Allcap0xe9b3…cfd0 | Yes | 377 | 14.3¢ | $17 | — |
| Black.Pug0x3f73…5108 | No | 17 | 86.0¢ | $17 | — |
| numberonejj0xec87…e633 | No | 14 | 81.6¢ | $13 | — |
| henos0x7a86…f8e8 | Yes | 275 | 6.8¢ | $12 | Proven+$4.90 per $100 · 455 bets |
| Chia0x2bd2…c21b | Yes | 251 | 11.4¢ | $11 | New46 settled bets |
| Hestor0x9afe…a2cb | Yes | 203 | 12.5¢ | $9 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 202 | 8.5¢ | $9 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0x1525…b953 | Yes | 200 | 5.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Noxikon0xf3e2…93c1 | Yes | 190 | 15.8¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x0b62…b8ab | Yes | 189 | 7.6¢ | $8 | — |
| ClickingButtons70x8029…bafc | Yes | 143 | 11.9¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xf567…1402 | Yes | 112 | 11.7¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 106 | 11.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,075 bets |
| purebaby0xe23b…f147 | Yes | 84 | 5.0¢ | $4 | — |
| simplystupid1880x682c…17ae | Yes | 67 | 11.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 1,502 bets |
| 0xf495…01fc | Yes | 67 | 19.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Wolfred0xbf04…d45b | Yes | 60 | 20.3¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x9783…ac60 | Yes | 59 | 16.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x6fd4…5cfc | Yes | 50 | 12.8¢ | $2 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 50 | 8.5¢ | $2 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| Dimos0x8773…c213 | Yes | 50 | 20.0¢ | $2 | — |
| JoE0x7740…cbcd | Yes | 48 | 14.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 11,334 bets |
| petruccci0x9370…9e88 | Yes | 42 | 13.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xca6f…14aa | Yes | 33 | 18.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Peasantfarmer0xd211…6eaa | Yes | 31 | 13.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xfa67…e2c6 | Yes | 26 | 16.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5720…b7c2 | Yes | 25 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 25 | 6.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,642 bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 17 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| UssTrippingHigh0x417b…18d3 | Yes | 17 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.77 per $100 · 2,522 bets |
| DoubleWIzard0xd66d…b64a | Yes | 12 | 9.4¢ | $1 | — |
| generaloperations0x1a9a…e127 | Yes | 10 | 15.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sahamies0x5dbc…e3c7 | Yes | 10 | 10.0¢ | $0 | New60 settled bets |
| 0xe795…0eaa | Yes | 10 | 13.2¢ | $0 | — |
| frank195710xa182…aca0 | Yes | 8 | 18.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc47f…61bf | Yes | 7 | 15.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc6d7…4399 | Yes | 6 | 17.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1c1d…eb11 | Yes | 6 | 18.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa581…7ac3 | Yes | 6 | 18.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | 5 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | Yes | 5 | 20.2¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.