Market
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 19:19 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 9 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gladius70xc932…e6a5 | No | 4,422 | 61.5¢ | $3.38K | Proven+$6.20 per $100 · 264 bets |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 4,048 | 49.4¢ | $3.1K | — |
| KrackenSruster0xd44e…67e2 | No | 2,320 | 37.7¢ | $1.77K | Proven+$10.52 per $100 · 893 bets |
| AnonDaveDave0x98bc…a1da | No | 1,717 | 53.6¢ | $1.31K | — |
| JoeBlack010x9ca1…13b5 | No | 1,628 | 42.7¢ | $1.25K | Proven+$2.66 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1 | Yes | 5,052 | 51.6¢ | $1.19K | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 3,946 bets |
| SlenderMan0xab19…4876 | No | 1,316 | 46.0¢ | $1.01K | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 533 bets |
| A1VENGO0xc0df…9cf1 | No | 1,094 | 62.4¢ | $837 | — |
| cooldisplayname0x610a…cb39 | No | 830 | 47.1¢ | $635 | New72 settled bets |
| SadBenua0x0a58…4508 | Yes | 2,428 | 58.6¢ | $571 | — |
| flexibleagedbeef0xbbc5…b08b | No | 657 | 75.5¢ | $503 | — |
| CHIKI330xff52…4546 | No | 650 | 40.0¢ | $497 | — |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 1,456 | 59.1¢ | $342 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| Donkolo0x43f0…1b3d | Yes | 1,363 | 60.5¢ | $320 | — |
| 0x1080x9de6…d884 | Yes | 1,115 | 61.2¢ | $262 | — |
| Coldonn1010xe6fd…8bc3 | No | 339 | 52.1¢ | $260 | — |
| rontro280x0330…eb8f | No | 336 | 62.5¢ | $257 | — |
| trader-c52fead80xc52f…0981 | No | 300 | 42.0¢ | $230 | — |
| GabiFP0x65d4…b7e3 | No | 274 | 72.9¢ | $210 | Proven+$11.19 per $100 · 376 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 258 | 61.5¢ | $197 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| VatnikPride0x2384…3e0b | Yes | 820 | 61.0¢ | $193 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 817 | 42.8¢ | $192 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 131,061 bets |
| adenakoz10xb615…73cf | No | 248 | 50.0¢ | $190 | Proven+$21.35 per $100 · 1,988 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 244 | 28.0¢ | $187 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| bothisattvas0x01d8…e32d | Yes | 701 | 57.2¢ | $165 | — |
| firewalker9230xef54…c997 | Yes | 700 | 53.7¢ | $165 | — |
| 123erty0xc93c…52f1 | Yes | 661 | 54.8¢ | $155 | Proven+$3.28 per $100 · 385 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 200 | 44.0¢ | $153 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| bohdancio0xab79…f2ed | No | 167 | 60.0¢ | $128 | — |
| spartacchempion0x806f…418e | Yes | 526 | 57.6¢ | $124 | — |
| serferer0xdc70…cc56 | No | 153 | 41.5¢ | $117 | — |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | No | 150 | 41.0¢ | $115 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 450 | 44.4¢ | $106 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 136 | 58.7¢ | $104 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,956 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 134 | 42.4¢ | $102 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,293 bets |
| radek440x153b…65d8 | Yes | 399 | 52.2¢ | $94 | Losing−$2.78 per $100 · 371 bets |
| 0x7d33…c15f | No | 120 | 38.7¢ | $92 | Losing−$4.65 per $100 · 579 bets |
| 0xa0b9…6048 | No | 120 | 58.0¢ | $92 | — |
| 0x243a…3497 | Yes | 365 | 66.6¢ | $86 | — |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5 | No | 110 | 74.0¢ | $84 | Losing−$5.82 per $100 · 2,228 bets |
| zetbetter0x6512…5291 | Yes | 345 | 29.0¢ | $81 | Proven+$4.12 per $100 · 680 bets |
| -BOB-0xb084…b64f | Yes | 336 | 48.5¢ | $79 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 100 | 49.0¢ | $76 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| IP13800x96e8…d240 | Yes | 300 | 47.5¢ | $71 | — |
| bolla-5770x7c8b…a211 | Yes | 282 | 61.0¢ | $66 | — |
| Baristas0x8b04…84da | Yes | 266 | 21.0¢ | $63 | — |
| zubr0xfa22…69a6 | No | 81 | 62.0¢ | $62 | — |
| filthymudeok0xbbe3…5b92 | No | 78 | 41.3¢ | $60 | Losing−$11.70 per $100 · 325 bets |
| 5.6sol0x5709…22c3 | Yes | 200 | 63.0¢ | $47 | — |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 200 | 49.0¢ | $47 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 194 | 40.0¢ | $46 | Losing−$2.56 per $100 · 124,139 bets |
| 4me0x3d9b…1542 | Yes | 194 | 39.0¢ | $46 | — |
| 0xa1c7…bdbb | No | 58 | 52.0¢ | $44 | New83 settled bets |
| 0xfeef…4b1f | Yes | 172 | 87.9¢ | $40 | — |
| perviy0x50d7…dbca | Yes | 159 | 63.0¢ | $37 | — |
| Rane20220x2e26…336c | Yes | 155 | 40.3¢ | $36 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 147 | 40.0¢ | $34 | Positive+$3.66 per $100 · 14,761 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 45 | 46.6¢ | $34 | Break-even+$0.40 per $100 · 627 bets |
| Kutoba0x40b5…6b5f | Yes | 140 | 71.5¢ | $33 | Break-even−$0.59 per $100 · 606 bets |
| catbayun0xd608…2e36 | Yes | 138 | 60.0¢ | $32 | — |
| shoobadooba180x2d6c…e3f5 | Yes | 135 | 40.0¢ | $32 | — |
| Oskoreiter0x4518…1cac | Yes | 135 | 63.0¢ | $32 | — |
| codafast0x77e3…d0bf | Yes | 135 | 58.0¢ | $32 | — |
| singularity.0xc018…ead1 | No | 41 | 73.0¢ | $31 | — |
| domk0x2d19…52c6 | Yes | 132 | 44.9¢ | $31 | — |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | Yes | 129 | 48.0¢ | $30 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| Bazovi4ek0xa810…4096 | Yes | 125 | 53.9¢ | $29 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 119 | 47.8¢ | $28 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 119 | 42.0¢ | $28 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| 0xafa7…6e67 | No | 34 | 40.6¢ | $26 | — |
| zslon0x2d7d…8a52 | Yes | 111 | 62.1¢ | $26 | — |
| Mithra0x73d2…2ed6 | Yes | 110 | 48.0¢ | $26 | — |
| Dodexo0xebdf…ac87 | Yes | 100 | 40.0¢ | $24 | — |
| ProxyOne0x5bb6…9d57 | No | 30 | 74.7¢ | $23 | — |
| marinamandarina0xa24d…d44b | Yes | 97 | 55.0¢ | $23 | — |
| SayGoodbyeFireflies0x0dcd…9910 | Yes | 88 | 51.5¢ | $21 | New35 settled bets |
| wsolomin0x0cba…bcb0 | Yes | 87 | 57.4¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x0900…a11f | Yes | 75 | 66.3¢ | $18 | — |
| PacalHarcos0xf2a6…24b8 | Yes | 75 | 27.0¢ | $18 | — |
| 0x2d75…4e46 | No | 22 | 74.4¢ | $16 | Proven+$8.58 per $100 · 182 bets |
| AlexZA30x5c5b…1a6d | No | 21 | 43.0¢ | $16 | Positive+$4.62 per $100 · 181 bets |
| 0x37f5…3687 | No | 20 | 52.5¢ | $15 | — |
| altar070x7028…e0e9 | No | 20 | 50.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$5.28 per $100 · 1,123 bets |
| GirlOnFire0x7230…f3d0 | No | 20 | 31.0¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x07cd…fbc0 | No | 17 | 63.3¢ | $13 | — |
| 0xf567…1402 | Yes | 57 | 35.3¢ | $13 | — |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | Yes | 50 | 25.9¢ | $12 | Proven+$12.28 per $100 · 3,035 bets |
| 0x00cd…c0ae | Yes | 50 | 24.0¢ | $12 | Losing−$1.01 per $100 · 4,124 bets |
| mr.Putin0x4367…1933 | Yes | 50 | 50.0¢ | $12 | — |
| ViscaElBarca0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | 50 | 40.0¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xe7a1…965f | No | 12 | 59.6¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xcb67…499b | No | 12 | 41.7¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xb4f6…eada | No | 10 | 37.0¢ | $8 | — |
| gigi.9110x33d3…b5ab | No | 10 | 62.0¢ | $8 | — |
| whysoseri8us0x6311…fb18 | No | 10 | 74.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.73 per $100 · 7,233 bets |
| virtua0x61e9…425a | No | 9 | 47.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 9 | 72.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| 0xea68…f460 | No | 8 | 70.0¢ | $6 | — |
| thunderquack0x07fd…ad26 | No | 7 | 60.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$5.90 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0x8e31…30b1 | No | 5 | 50.2¢ | $4 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.