Market
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:16 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DenisDumov0x3f68…fc42 | No | 34,918 | 50.6¢ | $33.2K | — |
| Gladius70xc932…e6a5 | No | 18,002 | 55.1¢ | $17.1K | Proven+$6.20 per $100 · 264 bets |
| 0x7402…4047 | No | 12,123 | 49.2¢ | $11.5K | — |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 2,881 | 32.4¢ | $2.74K | — |
| Napoleon19880xf167…19a1 | No | 2,105 | 95.0¢ | $2K | — |
| vovatoxic0xf989…47cc | No | 2,041 | 49.0¢ | $1.94K | Proven+$31.56 per $100 · 158 bets |
| Agniter0xdaa9…02e6 | No | 1,347 | 70.0¢ | $1.28K | — |
| DumplingBMF0x8f69…7df1 | Yes | 24,849 | 60.3¢ | $1.24K | Proven+$2.52 per $100 · 3,946 bets |
| 0x8950…3497 | No | 1,307 | 36.4¢ | $1.24K | — |
| 0x3e20x3e23…8579 | No | 1,226 | 41.2¢ | $1.16K | — |
| Lord-Of-Democracy0xe22d…635d | No | 1,200 | 94.0¢ | $1.14K | — |
| 0xd054…7e38 | No | 1,200 | 23.8¢ | $1.14K | — |
| cocos2280x8e5c…a68a | No | 1,033 | 46.9¢ | $981 | Proven+$17.59 per $100 · 119 bets |
| sjj0x2a29…bf9d | No | 1,015 | 88.6¢ | $964 | — |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | No | 1,013 | 46.0¢ | $962 | New55 settled bets |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | Yes | 15,259 | 8.2¢ | $763 | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 31,074 bets |
| zerglemon0xe81d…16bf | No | 800 | 63.8¢ | $760 | Losing−$15.93 per $100 · 411 bets |
| firewalker9230xef54…c997 | No | 773 | 32.1¢ | $735 | — |
| 0x4e83…a81f | No | 730 | 82.2¢ | $694 | — |
| 0xfccd…2b20 | No | 727 | 30.1¢ | $690 | — |
| 0xde6a…ec4e | No | 698 | 86.0¢ | $663 | — |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | No | 684 | 43.6¢ | $650 | Positive+$1.89 per $100 · 4,098 bets |
| abdoohl0x8e4f…4594 | Yes | 12,659 | 16.8¢ | $633 | — |
| itsfomo0x6165…a600 | No | 597 | 94.0¢ | $567 | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 119 bets |
| John.Gault0x8fa0…72d6 | No | 561 | 53.6¢ | $533 | — |
| MrLooney0x41df…4b70 | No | 555 | 26.1¢ | $527 | — |
| 0x8270…38c0 | No | 534 | 58.2¢ | $507 | New5 settled bets |
| schneider0x45a3…12f0 | No | 526 | 95.0¢ | $500 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 1,139 bets |
| DumbOracle0xa9ec…57d5 | No | 500 | 88.0¢ | $475 | — |
| Armiger0x81d3…c300 | No | 481 | 26.1¢ | $457 | — |
| 0xb943…9bbe | No | 472 | 42.4¢ | $448 | — |
| Bromley860x0b65…293e | Yes | 6,729 | 47.8¢ | $336 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 1,103 bets |
| TuttyFruity0x49b6…d152 | No | 337 | 39.3¢ | $320 | — |
| Topme0x88db…4228 | No | 319 | 53.0¢ | $303 | — |
| 0xb4ba…4ced | No | 313 | 43.7¢ | $297 | — |
| DEGENKHAN0x21d0…ce91 | No | 310 | 92.6¢ | $295 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 2,670 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 309 | 92.4¢ | $294 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| 0x5c81…af11 | No | 296 | 64.7¢ | $281 | — |
| rontro280x0330…eb8f | No | 275 | 91.0¢ | $261 | — |
| ourdemocracy0x08c9…a2ef | No | 200 | 44.0¢ | $190 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 577 bets |
| 0xbd53…8dd1 | No | 200 | 43.5¢ | $190 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 3,671 | 22.1¢ | $184 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| mk-h0xa6a6…8bc8 | No | 190 | 42.1¢ | $181 | — |
| .heart0x1fcc…701b | No | 188 | 42.2¢ | $179 | — |
| Ashenpike0x9290…5d22 | No | 187 | 48.0¢ | $178 | — |
| sneedly90xb491…c600 | Yes | 3,278 | 37.2¢ | $164 | — |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 3,075 | 4.5¢ | $154 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| 0x2712…eb71 | No | 142 | 35.2¢ | $135 | — |
| 0xd428…4527 | No | 132 | 53.0¢ | $125 | — |
| TheManInTheSky0x4bc2…597a | Yes | 2,436 | 17.0¢ | $122 | Break-even−$0.58 per $100 · 566 bets |
| hansdael0x7468…7735 | No | 125 | 40.0¢ | $119 | — |
| Wok0xbf43…ddf6 | No | 119 | 42.0¢ | $113 | — |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | No | 115 | 41.0¢ | $109 | — |
| 0x42b2…4be3 | No | 111 | 14.0¢ | $106 | — |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 111 | 72.0¢ | $105 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,967 bets |
| shred77770x43cc…9211 | No | 100 | 22.0¢ | $95 | Proven+$7.41 per $100 · 237 bets |
| JILLY0x6020…e249 | No | 100 | 21.0¢ | $95 | — |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 1,854 | 6.0¢ | $93 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| Azrarn0x8631…9a73 | Yes | 1,808 | 72.9¢ | $90 | Losing−$6.27 per $100 · 248 bets |
| alpha.found0x2b16…ec21 | Yes | 1,340 | 7.5¢ | $67 | — |
| MoneyCraft0x238d…6e99 | Yes | 1,286 | 65.4¢ | $64 | — |
| 5.6sol0x5709…22c3 | Yes | 1,251 | 73.3¢ | $63 | — |
| Kutoba0x40b5…6b5f | Yes | 1,153 | 56.4¢ | $58 | Break-even−$0.59 per $100 · 606 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,100 | 58.0¢ | $55 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,057 bets |
| henos0x7a86…f8e8 | Yes | 1,066 | 7.5¢ | $53 | Proven+$4.90 per $100 · 455 bets |
| Chia0x2bd2…c21b | Yes | 930 | 60.9¢ | $46 | New46 settled bets |
| 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96040x8a98…1b92 | Yes | 829 | 50.4¢ | $41 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 1,882 bets |
| 0x15af…9e32 | Yes | 806 | 45.9¢ | $40 | — |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 700 | 54.4¢ | $35 | — |
| Voltoger0xfffe…4e6c | Yes | 609 | 53.5¢ | $30 | — |
| Torin810x9290…3452 | Yes | 600 | 20.8¢ | $30 | — |
| D33pCynic0x55db…2031 | Yes | 572 | 52.4¢ | $29 | New52 settled bets |
| frameworker0x59f8…0550 | Yes | 500 | 77.0¢ | $25 | — |
| 300PS0x8f41…260e | Yes | 500 | 56.0¢ | $25 | Break-even+$0.44 per $100 · 4,600 bets |
| baklavam0x4749…0ed3 | Yes | 450 | 7.0¢ | $23 | — |
| negator5120x1df2…cdf4 | Yes | 364 | 78.5¢ | $18 | — |
| Muhodjon0x282f…bea9 | Yes | 326 | 39.3¢ | $16 | — |
| VatnikPride0x2384…3e0b | Yes | 300 | 15.0¢ | $15 | — |
| BTCGambler2470x31c5…ede4 | Yes | 290 | 53.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$9.51 per $100 · 524 bets |
| rocky420070x6b17…03b2 | Yes | 270 | 13.0¢ | $14 | — |
| polk-8380x2d0e…ebb6 | Yes | 260 | 37.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Pantheon10x606e…6b3a | Yes | 255 | 53.2¢ | $13 | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 477 bets |
| plsnolose0xbb75…f496 | Yes | 231 | 13.0¢ | $12 | — |
| BetsAhead0x0002…56c9 | Yes | 215 | 23.3¢ | $11 | — |
| H4lifax0x22aa…e343 | Yes | 200 | 49.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 5atka0x1c26…6e31 | Yes | 200 | 85.7¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 6,495 bets |
| Repletion0x2df2…941d | Yes | 180 | 65.6¢ | $9 | — |
| ziggerino0xafec…73e2 | Yes | 160 | 37.0¢ | $8 | — |
| bulleye0xf33c…4b9d | Yes | 150 | 69.1¢ | $8 | — |
| VANTUZNASOSOV0x4126…a275 | Yes | 145 | 54.0¢ | $7 | — |
| gibiskus0x90fb…237e | Yes | 145 | 37.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x39fc…2ca4 | Yes | 131 | 38.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Spbrep0x75d2…1fee | Yes | 116 | 61.0¢ | $6 | — |
| ComradeGeneralFromSnezhnaya0x0ef1…0b73 | Yes | 115 | 79.0¢ | $6 | — |
| BasedZigger0x30d2…6da4 | Yes | 112 | 37.0¢ | $6 | — |
| workwork0x090b…0fe9 | Yes | 104 | 58.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Nardo990xbb9f…1893 | Yes | 103 | 53.7¢ | $5 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 102 | 5.8¢ | $5 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| ktv.politics0xc2d7…deb5 | Yes | 29 | 6.7¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.