Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?
Chance of Yes
▲ 1 pt this week
Money on this event
2 outcomes
Room to trade
0.7¢ between buy and sell
Bet this week
Ends
Nov 1
in 18 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?”.
§1This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
§2The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
§3Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
§4For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
§5If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
§6Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances
§7Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 10:28 UTC. Not financial advice.
§8
§9If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map.
§10However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify.
§11Actual control must be established.
§12Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png
The market resolves Yes if Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast per the ISW map, between market…§1
Shading persists
Qualifying shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.§4
ISW skips day
If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.§5
Settlement control
Russia gaining control via a negotiated settlement qualifies for Yes even without qualifying shading.§9
Announcement only
An announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control does not qualify; actual control must be established.§10
Counted
The intersection is captured if any part of it is shaded under a qualifying ISW layer by the resolution date.§2
Source
The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map; DeepStateMap may be used if the ISW map is rendered unavailable.§15
Closes
Nov 1, 2026 · 03:59 UTC
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.