Market
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gladius70xc932…e6a5 | No | 7,098 | 54.8¢ | $6.81K | Proven+$6.20 per $100 · 264 bets |
| 0xb7c1…675e | No | 5,534 | 68.9¢ | $5.31K | Proven+$7.75 per $100 · 160 bets |
| cocos2280x8e5c…a68a | No | 2,844 | 65.9¢ | $2.73K | Proven+$17.59 per $100 · 119 bets |
| bifurcatio0xa9ea…1043 | No | 1,877 | 90.0¢ | $1.8K | — |
| zatic0x4568…36ab | No | 1,602 | 62.4¢ | $1.54K | — |
| GaioMario0x94d0…9e65 | No | 1,531 | 66.0¢ | $1.47K | — |
| shred77770x43cc…9211 | No | 1,029 | 70.4¢ | $988 | Proven+$7.41 per $100 · 237 bets |
| 0x3e20x3e23…8579 | No | 1,026 | 58.0¢ | $984 | — |
| 0xd054…7e38 | No | 687 | 40.3¢ | $659 | — |
| Greysok0xe443…c065 | No | 657 | 36.0¢ | $630 | — |
| firewalker9230xef54…c997 | No | 546 | 85.2¢ | $524 | — |
| trubushgermai0xaa4b…1381 | No | 450 | 82.9¢ | $432 | — |
| cidesui770x8fbb…b4c6 | No | 357 | 28.0¢ | $343 | — |
| 0xaa74…8add | No | 269 | 29.6¢ | $258 | — |
| 0x1da8…aa05 | No | 241 | 83.0¢ | $231 | — |
| Azrarn0x8631…9a73 | Yes | 5,468 | 59.8¢ | $221 | Losing−$6.27 per $100 · 248 bets |
| itsfomo0x6165…a600 | No | 174 | 75.0¢ | $167 | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 119 bets |
| 0x9bd2…f0e7 | No | 172 | 29.0¢ | $165 | — |
| viktorurolog160xcf9e…518e | No | 153 | 76.0¢ | $147 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 149 | 8.0¢ | $143 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 145 | 95.3¢ | $139 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| 0x275c…6090 | No | 142 | 84.6¢ | $136 | — |
| Chia0x2bd2…c21b | Yes | 3,000 | 26.0¢ | $122 | New46 settled bets |
| Trypro0x1006…6028 | No | 114 | 95.3¢ | $109 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 2,488 | 24.0¢ | $101 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,289 bets |
| Alderamin0x6460…76db | Yes | 2,340 | 25.7¢ | $95 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 98 | 95.5¢ | $94 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 70 | 80.9¢ | $67 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| lizaahova540xa9df…9b90 | No | 68 | 97.6¢ | $65 | — |
| parthaellaukko0xe951…8df2 | No | 61 | 97.4¢ | $58 | — |
| PrviGrah0x9d08…0fa6 | No | 59 | 84.2¢ | $57 | — |
| 0x4e96…032f | No | 56 | 96.6¢ | $54 | — |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 1,250 | 2.4¢ | $51 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| bmtr0x7d1b…e75c | No | 50 | 59.0¢ | $48 | — |
| Kutra0xbd49…0d55 | Yes | 1,170 | 42.0¢ | $47 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 913 | 3.6¢ | $37 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| D33pCynic0x55db…2031 | Yes | 867 | 23.1¢ | $35 | New52 settled bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 831 | 26.4¢ | $34 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 31 | 71.0¢ | $30 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| 0xd604…92e2 | Yes | 675 | 28.1¢ | $27 | — |
| WildBillz0xbb8d…d546 | Yes | 646 | 29.4¢ | $26 | — |
| senseless170xe2ee…60b8 | No | 27 | 33.5¢ | $26 | — |
| 0x2712…eb71 | No | 27 | 64.8¢ | $26 | — |
| -BOB-0xb084…b64f | Yes | 625 | 16.0¢ | $25 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 600 | 8.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0x3af3…6214 | Yes | 587 | 4.0¢ | $24 | — |
| Estoico0x6a16…a9fd | Yes | 569 | 9.7¢ | $23 | — |
| BetsAhead0x0002…56c9 | Yes | 544 | 9.2¢ | $22 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 22 | 97.6¢ | $21 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x09d2…a3ac | No | 20 | 86.0¢ | $19 | Losing−$11.06 per $100 · 306 bets |
| R1ki-Tiki0x5e18…a2ce | No | 20 | 41.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0xf567…1402 | Yes | 412 | 29.6¢ | $17 | — |
| gh7890xa96a…dd9f | Yes | 392 | 25.1¢ | $16 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 332 | 13.7¢ | $13 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| ZeroBased0xf8a4…df53 | Yes | 324 | 18.2¢ | $13 | — |
| BTCGambler2470x31c5…ede4 | Yes | 300 | 35.0¢ | $12 | Proven+$9.51 per $100 · 524 bets |
| thunderquack0x07fd…ad26 | No | 12 | 94.1¢ | $11 | Proven+$5.90 per $100 · 614 bets |
| Allcap0xe9b3…cfd0 | Yes | 269 | 22.9¢ | $11 | — |
| cactusgeo0x8d60…e31e | Yes | 223 | 26.0¢ | $9 | — |
| Nardo990xbb9f…1893 | Yes | 209 | 16.2¢ | $8 | — |
| Moksha980x6e49…4710 | Yes | 205 | 4.9¢ | $8 | — |
| Biomaster0x4add…8cdf | No | 8 | 63.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xfff0…54e7 | Yes | 164 | 25.0¢ | $7 | — |
| smartJiawen0x9db9…8ad8 | No | 7 | 62.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x7ba9…4a80 | No | 7 | 76.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xf45f…dbfd | Yes | 155 | 11.4¢ | $6 | — |
| liverlancer0xd324…181b | No | 6 | 90.0¢ | $5 | — |
| warptrading0x6f08…54d3 | Yes | 128 | 39.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 10,198 bets |
| kosty322220x195e…c633 | Yes | 124 | 34.9¢ | $5 | — |
| TooYoungToWin0x28ab…2048 | No | 5 | 28.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x8f5b…8430 | No | 5 | 93.0¢ | $5 | — |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | No | 5 | 91.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| kekeeu0xa3f5…e175 | No | 5 | 74.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 5 | 95.1¢ | $5 | — |
| linyuzhi0xccdf…b8a7 | No | 5 | 66.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x00cd…c0ae | No | 5 | 83.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.01 per $100 · 4,124 bets |
| mastarbu0x7138…1246 | Yes | 116 | 71.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x21a2…da5b | No | 5 | 34.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Bodytobody0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | 112 | 9.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 14gjhgjk0x3f1f…feae | No | 4 | 67.8¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 8,319 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 102 | 7.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Liquidifier0x4818…bf0b | Yes | 100 | 43.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 3,668 bets |
| xiaodouzi0x9e80…30e2 | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Lord-Yopta0x8144…4c8a | Yes | 93 | 27.4¢ | $4 | — |
| amehn0xdfe2…cfc5 | Yes | 68 | 16.2¢ | $3 | — |
| Drall0xcf90…e37f | Yes | 67 | 14.9¢ | $3 | — |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | Yes | 60 | 65.3¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.81 per $100 · 69,025+ bets · updating |
| ObamAisAhomo0xe913…4b84 | Yes | 60 | 16.7¢ | $2 | — |
| FamousJogger0x088b…3a58 | Yes | 56 | 9.0¢ | $2 | — |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | Yes | 54 | 29.9¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| 0x0b62…b8ab | Yes | 54 | 25.0¢ | $2 | — |
| chopwood0xb886…3024 | Yes | 50 | 29.0¢ | $2 | — |
| A7fold0xeaea…9995 | Yes | 49 | 20.3¢ | $2 | — |
| HopeDisLasts0xae70…abfb | Yes | 44 | 11.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$10.63 per $100 · 224 bets |
| UshatPomoev0x183b…54f0 | Yes | 42 | 71.0¢ | $2 | — |
| djolence3530x59f6…64ee | Yes | 42 | 27.3¢ | $2 | — |
| Dow-Jones0xc5a9…0c9a | Yes | 40 | 39.0¢ | $2 | — |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | Yes | 40 | 73.0¢ | $2 | — |
| rufus.reddington0x953d…b279 | Yes | 38 | 26.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xc49f…1ec8 | Yes | 4 | 67.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.