Market · 16 of 23 outcomes
Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 18:45 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 861 | 94.1¢ | $818 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,302 bets |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | No | 400 | 94.0¢ | $380 | Proven+$2.64 per $100 · 1,416 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 300 | 94.0¢ | $285 | Break-even+$0.79 per $100 · 5,710 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 156 | 93.0¢ | $148 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,142 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 51 | 95.0¢ | $48 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| SuSuDORIS0xfadb…5645 | Yes | 402 | 5.0¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 15 | 94.0¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 233 | 7.8¢ | $12 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 204 | 5.5¢ | $10 | Losing−$5.95 per $100 · 8,491 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 184 | 5.3¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 125,093 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 182 | 8.9¢ | $9 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| Hollandl0x4c46…3614 | No | 8 | 96.0¢ | $8 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 142 | 7.5¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x7b64…8440 | No | 6 | 96.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 962 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 102 | 5.5¢ | $5 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 99 | 12.8¢ | $5 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| itsKey0x95c2…485b | No | 5 | 96.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 5 | 95.7¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.15 per $100 · 6,740 bets |
| betstaker0xd3fe…2b28 | No | 3 | 96.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$5.29 per $100 · 542 bets |
| 0x2650…44f7 | No | 3 | 96.3¢ | $3 | Losing−$5.64 per $100 · 1,761 bets |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | Yes | 57 | 6.9¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.02 per $100 · 1,724 bets |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | No | 3 | 94.9¢ | $3 | — |
| ccyy20260x4282…3455 | No | 2 | 96.5¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 1,709 bets |
| Po1yBot-ACWeDwGYit0x3d83…e0d0 | No | 2 | 96.0¢ | $2 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 40 | 32.0¢ | $2 | — |
| hspje890xb44b…3fdb | No | 2 | 95.0¢ | $2 | — |
| m3tuna0x4f9e…9aa0 | No | 2 | 95.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$43.17 per $100 · 959 bets |
| 0xc84b…6023 | No | 2 | 95.7¢ | $2 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 13.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 30 | 7.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.98 per $100 · 4,402 bets |
| S0177Stephen0x2b18…d3d6 | No | 1 | 94.0¢ | $1 | — |
| osmych0x7008…2fdd | No | 1 | 94.0¢ | $1 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | Yes | 20 | 16.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.72 per $100 · 3,183 bets |
| mangoking050x442c…3db8 | Yes | 20 | 5.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 10,157 bets |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | Yes | 20 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | Yes | 20 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Xyzzzzzzz0xb62c…6657 | Yes | 20 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x90ac…e52a | No | 1 | 95.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Geromi0x8e8d…5a27 | No | 1 | 93.9¢ | $1 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 17 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 5-testfollower-car0x3be5…f7fe | No | 0 | 95.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.95 per $100 · 817 bets |
| 0xfa01…800a | No | 0 | 94.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | 3 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| pinner0xd886…1746 | Yes | 3 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3d05…acde | Yes | 2 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | Yes | 1 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 6.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| softoman0x0849…2497 | Yes | 0 | 69.8¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.