Market · 19 of 19 outcomes
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 23:05 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 19 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PublioCornelio0x0a33…3a4f | Yes | 341,369 | 0.9¢ | $171 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 161 | 99.2¢ | $161 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| xasdasdf0xf4c8…2399 | No | 100 | 99.9¢ | $100 | — |
| Goldblad0xf7ab…e0de | No | 100 | 99.9¢ | $100 | — |
| cvsvdsfvfds0xa6da…235e | No | 94 | 99.9¢ | $94 | — |
| qerdsa0x6b1c…a55a | No | 90 | 99.9¢ | $90 | — |
| 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A0xa3a4…5106 | Yes | 158,285 | 1.3¢ | $79 | Positive+$121.33 per $100 · 627 bets |
| Llovani0xc374…ecf5 | Yes | 116,901 | 0.7¢ | $58 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 65,758 | 1.1¢ | $33 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,803 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 52,946 | 1.1¢ | $26 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,557 bets |
| mikecoin10x34b0…d620 | No | 21 | 99.4¢ | $21 | Proven+$5.87 per $100 · 253 bets |
| carismydad0xccd4…5383 | Yes | 41,662 | 0.2¢ | $21 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 40,845 | 1.1¢ | $20 | Positive+$5.58 per $100 · 87,563 bets |
| tokshi0x27fd…6d8f | No | 20 | 99.6¢ | $20 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 33,231 | 1.1¢ | $17 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,993 bets |
| trenchesgirlcap0xb28a…6d4a | Yes | 31,041 | 0.1¢ | $16 | — |
| Bageb0x042a…b153 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.1¢ | $15 | Proven+$47.00 per $100 · 302 bets |
| 0x66d5…8337 | No | 10 | 99.1¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x028b…5407 | No | 10 | 99.2¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xf2e7…843e | Yes | 20,033 | 0.1¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x46bc…e64d | Yes | 19,122 | 0.1¢ | $10 | — |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 19,101 | 1.1¢ | $10 | Positive+$3.91 per $100 · 158,863+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 18,650 | 1.3¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,166 bets |
| prof.doktor0xb24d…c330 | Yes | 18,316 | 0.2¢ | $9 | — |
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | Yes | 18,109 | 0.5¢ | $9 | Proven+$4.13 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| Espana260x18db…b848 | Yes | 16,999 | 1.2¢ | $8 | — |
| cdwxyz0x98e1…5516 | Yes | 15,176 | 0.1¢ | $8 | — |
| K1KE0x0bb9…9dd0 | Yes | 15,000 | 0.1¢ | $8 | — |
| Layla38670xb472…7102 | No | 7 | 99.8¢ | $7 | — |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | Yes | 14,162 | 1.1¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| Bigboy-trader0x2efe…9945 | Yes | 14,000 | 0.1¢ | $7 | — |
| ubergoy0x7072…69ac | Yes | 13,746 | 0.3¢ | $7 | Positive+$21.32 per $100 · 118 bets |
| Andrew49170x4e8d…52a8 | No | 7 | 99.8¢ | $7 | — |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 12,993 | 1.3¢ | $6 | Positive+$18.40 per $100 · 368 bets |
| georgecalinescu86350x64ad…ca63 | Yes | 12,769 | 0.2¢ | $6 | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 439 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 12,587 | 1.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 11,632 | 0.6¢ | $6 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 11,110 | 1.2¢ | $6 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| d33z00x146f…9410 | Yes | 10,829 | 1.3¢ | $5 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 10,820 | 1.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$3.65 per $100 · 14,826 bets |
| 0x82b5…1542 | Yes | 10,486 | 1.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Naj50xf4a2…b601 | Yes | 10,441 | 1.5¢ | $5 | — |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 10,122 | 1.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$5.70 per $100 · 57,549 bets |
| blenderK0x8164…df78 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.1¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 306 bets |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 9,487 | 1.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$8.01 per $100 · 18,920 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 9,344 | 0.8¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| northstock0x56b2…2ce1 | Yes | 7,997 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
| Lexington0xdebb…eedb | Yes | 7,937 | 1.1¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 8,308 bets |
| alex200110x4868…a1c1 | Yes | 6,918 | 1.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$7.16 per $100 · 20,637 bets |
| futuretbilisi0x0b99…75a7 | Yes | 6,406 | 0.2¢ | $3 | New5 settled bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 6,391 | 1.1¢ | $3 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,307 bets |
| 0x7250…50d3 | Yes | 6,180 | 0.5¢ | $3 | — |
| Trader1200x3de6…e560 | Yes | 5,700 | 0.1¢ | $3 | Losing−$4.33 per $100 · 27,167 bets |
| ultraego0xd5d6…9f15 | Yes | 5,566 | 0.4¢ | $3 | — |
| zhukov260x3a5a…3427 | Yes | 5,200 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | Yes | 5,125 | 1.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| 0x9d79…239f | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| giovacz0xec0f…05f2 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | $3 | — |
| CoffeeDespiser0x629c…6c01 | Yes | 5,000 | 1.1¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 2,081 bets |
| pardegatas0x9020…c0b7 | Yes | 4,977 | 0.2¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xff11…7211 | Yes | 4,920 | 0.1¢ | $2 | — |
| WyattShaw5610x7bab…9c82 | No | 2 | 99.7¢ | $2 | — |
| UbuntuTrading0xc3cd…816c | Yes | 3,793 | 1.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.63 per $100 · 9,376 bets |
| Alan63110x80ca…201a | No | 2 | 99.8¢ | $2 | — |
| JasonJennings6940x2588…bb72 | No | 2 | 99.9¢ | $2 | — |
| Grace24610xdb3d…0ab4 | No | 2 | 99.9¢ | $2 | — |
| 883b0x77e1…bf17 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| ea870xc825…de3f | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| godblessme20260x7dcf…a7bd | Yes | 576 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe8c6…f7f6 | Yes | 173 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| computer10xc6e5…89fb | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| ochoooo0xf6dd…8bb5 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.