Market · 1 of 22 outcomes
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:12 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| buoys0x7e35…1a6c | Yes | 15,013 | 35.9¢ | $7.28K | Positive+$11.50 per $100 · 2,033 bets |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | No | 9,267 | 56.7¢ | $4.77K | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 4,268 | 32.3¢ | $2.07K | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 1,391 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 3,000 | 4.5¢ | $1.46K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| Noname3330x6c17…6a7e | Yes | 2,790 | 33.1¢ | $1.35K | Proven+$4.18 per $100 · 460 bets |
| 0x8333…ef3e | Yes | 2,179 | 36.7¢ | $1.06K | New73 settled bets |
| 0x1ff3…eb39 | Yes | 1,925 | 28.6¢ | $934 | Positive+$3.53 per $100 · 336 bets |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | Yes | 1,218 | 35.8¢ | $591 | Proven+$11.46 per $100 · 1,102 bets |
| dhadad010xd8fa…5580 | Yes | 1,209 | 37.1¢ | $586 | Positive+$6.51 per $100 · 183 bets |
| CDReves0x3bf2…70a4 | Yes | 1,066 | 34.8¢ | $517 | — |
| Umaroth0xefde…783d | No | 1,000 | 52.0¢ | $515 | Break-even+$0.51 per $100 · 4,270 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 1,000 | 60.9¢ | $515 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| pkz0x49b6…170c | Yes | 846 | 9.9¢ | $410 | Proven+$5.06 per $100 · 1,472 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 674 | 54.0¢ | $347 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| OneLastHurrah0x7803…9e91 | No | 661 | 51.1¢ | $340 | Losing−$5.07 per $100 · 741 bets |
| lottonakamoto0x2884…d0c3 | No | 626 | 67.0¢ | $323 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 990 bets |
| ITHINKTHISISGODLOVER0xecf4…9979 | Yes | 612 | 49.0¢ | $297 | — |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | Yes | 571 | 36.0¢ | $277 | New60 settled bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 390 | 4.5¢ | $189 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,694 bets |
| Cescoli0x569b…c66e | Yes | 350 | 41.4¢ | $170 | Losing−$12.86 per $100 · 910 bets |
| jijodebot0x9f4b…f9bf | Yes | 322 | 37.8¢ | $156 | — |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | No | 299 | 54.3¢ | $154 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| MrGrunbaum0xaf1f…9dc5 | Yes | 300 | 40.0¢ | $146 | — |
| Ajjooli0x0404…8353 | No | 248 | 68.6¢ | $128 | Proven+$2.06 per $100 · 299 bets |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | Yes | 240 | 29.0¢ | $116 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 230 | 12.5¢ | $112 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 225 | 34.7¢ | $109 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 220 | 32.2¢ | $107 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| dropmeplease0x758b…0a1c | No | 201 | 72.5¢ | $104 | — |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | No | 200 | 63.0¢ | $103 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 200 | 62.7¢ | $103 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 178 | 62.4¢ | $92 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| lightshield0xabff…6b73 | No | 171 | 67.0¢ | $88 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 181 | 35.9¢ | $88 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| tnl0xb619…5068 | No | 165 | 64.0¢ | $85 | Break-even+$0.97 per $100 · 1,243 bets |
| LJa7io23MCv954j0x85a8…9281 | No | 120 | 41.0¢ | $62 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 163 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 123 | 4.5¢ | $60 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,355 bets |
| GrokEnjoyer0x92e5…efee | No | 111 | 53.0¢ | $57 | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 833 bets |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | No | 105 | 51.0¢ | $54 | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 31,074 bets |
| webot-ai0xc2a5…0ce9 | No | 104 | 67.0¢ | $54 | New25 settled bets |
| 1565641sfdas0x239f…8b82 | No | 100 | 64.0¢ | $52 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No | 100 | 59.0¢ | $52 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 1,838 bets |
| 32236d1fsd0xd219…0412 | No | 100 | 64.0¢ | $52 | — |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | No | 100 | 90.0¢ | $52 | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | Yes | 102 | 33.1¢ | $50 | Losing−$25.76 per $100 · 100 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 100 | 31.5¢ | $49 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 100 | 40.0¢ | $49 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| southparker0xc7a3…dbd2 | Yes | 100 | 33.0¢ | $49 | — |
| 0xcfef…4dfe | Yes | 100 | 35.0¢ | $49 | — |
| BrunoRetailleau0x81ec…7874 | Yes | 100 | 34.0¢ | $48 | — |
| haobtc0xf2a8…45ad | Yes | 100 | 34.0¢ | $48 | — |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 95 | 36.0¢ | $46 | — |
| leadernew0x9c2d…1b16 | No | 85 | 59.0¢ | $44 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 80 | 58.3¢ | $41 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| IntgTrd0x84f9…3453 | Yes | 81 | 37.0¢ | $39 | — |
| cololo0xfd77…d379 | No | 76 | 51.0¢ | $39 | Losing−$3.67 per $100 · 2,065 bets |
| Nicolasro910x671c…e261 | Yes | 77 | 39.0¢ | $37 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 76 | 32.8¢ | $37 | — |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 72 | 3.3¢ | $35 | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 70 | 39.0¢ | $34 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| 0xc048…27d0 | Yes | 68 | 37.0¢ | $33 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 53 | 59.0¢ | $27 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| 1014560x8de0…7f22 | Yes | 54 | 39.0¢ | $26 | Proven+$14.71 per $100 · 249 bets |
| trade11120260xc6e2…06f4 | No | 50 | 69.0¢ | $26 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | No | 50 | 59.0¢ | $26 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | No | 50 | 58.0¢ | $26 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| Permanent-revolution0xdbc5…4d5f | Yes | 52 | 48.0¢ | $25 | — |
| Agecanonix0xe068…c5ea | No | 49 | 75.0¢ | $25 | — |
| aysupernova0x8bd3…5cf0 | Yes | 50 | 36.0¢ | $24 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 47 | 53.0¢ | $24 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 44 | 62.0¢ | $23 | — |
| Houle0x3056…c0b2 | No | 44 | 61.0¢ | $23 | — |
| 0xd717…3b85 | No | 38 | 65.6¢ | $20 | — |
| Citizenkane0x03d9…4cc8 | No | 37 | 68.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x864e…f9f6 | Yes | 35 | 34.2¢ | $17 | — |
| 0opj4kuu4xb20x3500…07f0 | No | 32 | 68.2¢ | $16 | Losing−$12.60 per $100 · 4,915 bets |
| filthymudeok0xbbe3…5b92 | No | 30 | 65.5¢ | $15 | Losing−$11.70 per $100 · 325 bets |
| RepublicOfChina0xe947…7a45 | No | 29 | 40.0¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x7f6d…f6f6 | No | 28 | 68.7¢ | $14 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 273 bets |
| Chococremeux0x08a6…f3cc | No | 27 | 61.4¢ | $14 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 26 | 54.0¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| e2021dc0xf28d…b24b | Yes | 28 | 36.0¢ | $13 | — |
| pm-my-auto0xd347…b528 | Yes | 25 | 38.7¢ | $12 | — |
| Duncs7230x9f60…3a16 | Yes | 24 | 41.0¢ | $12 | — |
| User960140x2b16…cbe4 | No | 23 | 66.0¢ | $12 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 22 | 65.7¢ | $11 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0x57ed…0b50 | Yes | 23 | 43.0¢ | $11 | — |
| tiongbu0xb777…3ff9 | No | 21 | 73.0¢ | $11 | — |
| FredericM20x6407…1f9b | No | 20 | 66.0¢ | $10 | — |
| gfdgfvfvssdd0x84bb…1477 | No | 20 | 59.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 9,376 bets |
| FredericM0x9372…5093 | No | 20 | 70.0¢ | $10 | — |
| MuchAdo2BRN2B0xfad4…a210 | No | 20 | 64.0¢ | $10 | — |
| plytest20x08b4…624e | No | 19 | 62.5¢ | $10 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 18 | 4.3¢ | $9 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 18 | 49.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| USER48415180x350c…72de | Yes | 14 | 35.0¢ | $7 | — |
| FairScarf0xeb04…60c3 | Yes | 14 | 35.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x0e9d…d533 | Yes | 13 | 38.0¢ | $6 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.