Market · 7 of 21 outcomes
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 21 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTUII0xd303…2154 | No | 28 | 99.9¢ | $28 | — |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 18,312 | 3.0¢ | $9 | Positive+$7.92 per $100 · 18,788 bets |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 16,715 | 3.1¢ | $8 | Positive+$8.83 per $100 · 36,123+ bets · updating |
| Wojtek0x07d4…8991 | Yes | 15,766 | 0.1¢ | $8 | Proven+$6.05 per $100 · 2,630 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 14,023 | 3.1¢ | $7 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,034 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 12,982 | 3.1¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,170 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 10,812 | 3.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$5.59 per $100 · 87,228 bets |
| 154f0x8fef…10d6 | No | 5 | 99.8¢ | $5 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 9,965 | 3.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| AnimalEater0xa445…0286 | Yes | 6,176 | 0.1¢ | $3 | Proven+$58.33 per $100 · 566 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 6,000 | 0.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| 0x2999…3898 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $2 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 4,778 | 3.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.67 per $100 · 14,485 bets |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 4,609 | 3.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$18.40 per $100 · 368 bets |
| F0ulplay0x3674…2fc6 | Yes | 4,072 | 0.2¢ | $2 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 3,217 | 3.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,456 bets |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1 | Yes | 2,866 | 3.1¢ | $1 | — |
| mildwindow270x9f20…12c3 | Yes | 2,852 | 3.1¢ | $1 | — |
| alex200110x4868…a1c1 | Yes | 2,721 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$7.23 per $100 · 20,554 bets |
| 0xbafd…4898 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Mushy-Transport0x8884…84ee | Yes | 2,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xfbd8…4027 | Yes | 1,804 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.14 per $100 · 30,125+ bets · updating |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | Yes | 1,801 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 1,599 | 1.4¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.37 per $100 · 13,129 bets |
| 0xd32c…a4c2 | Yes | 1,438 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$6.63 per $100 · 3,766 bets |
| SpringlyFawl0xfbed…a665 | Yes | 1,268 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$10.52 per $100 · 10,908 bets |
| starleksis0x5c87…1321 | Yes | 1,165 | 0.4¢ | $1 | — |
| northdrawer0xfd55…f905 | Yes | 1,026 | 3.1¢ | $1 | — |
| merod0x8373…f0bc | Yes | 1,021 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$9.62 per $100 · 17,356 bets |
| plainfolder0x28bf…4a4e | Yes | 874 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Jucy0x3558…0ece | Yes | 862 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| VerilyWinningly0x6276…9db5 | Yes | 859 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$27.82 per $100 · 1,250 bets |
| korda770xa328…4977 | Yes | 712 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.82 per $100 · 42,898 bets |
| ttyoo0x0f83…643f | Yes | 651 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc29e…3068 | Yes | 545 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | Yes | 451 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.47 per $100 · 22,145 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 434 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| vamosgaming0x6cff…a463 | Yes | 419 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| zerone7770xe949…dea6 | Yes | 400 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$36.27 per $100 · 616 bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 397 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| fourcoin15m0x0629…501d | Yes | 300 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$10.62 per $100 · 20,256 bets |
| 11B7c7e5D9610xaee8…1154 | Yes | 300 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 277 | 0.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| akla270x5993…a32d | Yes | 274 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$37.53 per $100 · 318 bets |
| aHjCz0x2b59…9db6 | Yes | 264 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.81 per $100 · 29,827+ bets · updating |
| SPLPB0xdf0e…c02b | Yes | 259 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.97 per $100 · 5,635 bets |
| Mustwiner0xf40f…e473 | Yes | 250 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 217 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 23,888 bets |
| 0x0731…4245 | Yes | 200 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9495…468f | Yes | 158 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.14 per $100 · 12,696 bets |
| quietparcel0x764b…6bad | Yes | 150 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| poposub0x3d7d…10fc | Yes | 115 | 3.2¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.