Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Socialista0xfa01…f0a7 | No | 1,800 | 63.2¢ | $1.13K | Break-even−$0.52 per $100 · 7,515 bets |
| LimitOrderLarry0x2568…ef92 | Yes | 2,840 | 39.5¢ | $1.06K | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| howstheweather0x47f7…0312 | Yes | 2,000 | 38.0¢ | $750 | Losing−$1.25 per $100 · 4,596 bets |
| paddapadda0x93c2…08e0 | Yes | 2,000 | 38.0¢ | $750 | — |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 1,981 | 18.2¢ | $743 | Positive+$7.96 per $100 · 18,815 bets |
| Mon6760x034a…e968 | Yes | 1,679 | 37.1¢ | $630 | — |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 927 | 38.0¢ | $348 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,266 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 507 | 64.2¢ | $317 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,406 bets |
| satokaede0xe3cf…9dc0 | Yes | 595 | 36.0¢ | $223 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 500 | 40.0¢ | $188 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| 0x3a9d…f332 | Yes | 383 | 40.2¢ | $144 | — |
| seethreepoh0xad54…006a | No | 199 | 64.2¢ | $125 | — |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | Yes | 300 | 38.0¢ | $112 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 163 | 28.8¢ | $61 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| doil0xf294…7967 | Yes | 150 | 37.0¢ | $56 | — |
| orbiterix0x5e2c…5dc1 | Yes | 100 | 39.8¢ | $38 | Losing−$2.71 per $100 · 689 bets |
| mo1far0xb026…d4fd | Yes | 100 | 38.0¢ | $38 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 100 | 51.0¢ | $38 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 92 | 39.0¢ | $34 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | Yes | 70 | 38.0¢ | $26 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 2,068 bets |
| Spielermann0x0c93…aafa | Yes | 69 | 40.4¢ | $26 | Losing−$6.83 per $100 · 316 bets |
| 0x5f51…74f2 | Yes | 51 | 40.4¢ | $19 | — |
| hjss0x272d…9e36 | Yes | 50 | 38.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x4264…f8bf | Yes | 50 | 55.0¢ | $19 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 50 | 20.0¢ | $19 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 50 | 49.0¢ | $19 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| amandagarcia0xad76…2dae | No | 24 | 63.2¢ | $15 | — |
| KickstandBot0xca1f…d282 | No | 20 | 63.2¢ | $13 | — |
| Hot-SkullHomelessBegger0xcee6…8233 | No | 20 | 53.7¢ | $13 | — |
| JustThink0x3958…938f | No | 16 | 64.2¢ | $10 | New67 settled bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 20 | 40.2¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 20 | 40.2¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 19 | 20.0¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xefb6…9f30 | No | 8 | 63.8¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xf397…2354 | Yes | 13 | 40.4¢ | $5 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 10 | 38.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | No | 5 | 60.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 1,687 bets |
| yueyueyn0xb87f…f7d4 | Yes | 8 | 40.2¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x7b64…8440 | Yes | 7 | 40.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 962 bets |
| jackylove0x4131…d591 | Yes | 7 | 27.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x3d03…9d52 | Yes | 5 | 40.4¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,098 bets |
| 77kbCcPrd2uG8w0x8dde…5045 | Yes | 5 | 40.2¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 174 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 4 | 40.0¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,685 bets |
| steph270x7737…cd3e | Yes | 3 | 39.2¢ | $1 | — |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | No | 2 | 65.5¢ | $1 | — |
| ses06war0x67c9…1ef1 | Yes | 1 | 40.2¢ | $1 | — |
| China-Eastern0xb58d…7336 | No | 1 | 53.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca75…0a64 | No | 0 | 61.0¢ | $0 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | No | 0 | 44.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 23,888 bets |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | No | 0 | 63.2¢ | $0 | — |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | No | 0 | 63.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | Yes | 0 | 21.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| SPLPB0xdf0e…c02b | Yes | 0 | 40.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.97 per $100 · 5,635 bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 0 | 38.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| scalerr0xe50e…45c5 | Yes | 0 | 42.2¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 5 shares each side · Show
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