Market · 4 of 19 outcomes
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 19 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 12 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| schizohedgehog0x4755…4158 | No | 82,193 | 97.0¢ | $80.2K | New63 settled bets |
| bearbees20x12b8…479c | No | 39,314 | 97.2¢ | $38.4K | Positive+$1.30 per $100 · 259 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 34,145 | 85.1¢ | $33.3K | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,020 bets |
| mrnobodyinvejoso0x9fcf…e455 | No | 30,731 | 89.8¢ | $30K | Positive+$1.51 per $100 · 892 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 25,207 | 97.3¢ | $24.6K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 777 bets |
| DonaldinhoTrumpito0x7523…4c4c | No | 25,000 | 97.7¢ | $24.4K | Break-even−$0.92 per $100 · 2,013 bets |
| tryingout10xba0e…5ceb | No | 21,042 | 89.9¢ | $20.5K | Proven+$4.57 per $100 · 145 bets |
| Nik-0x9e80…f694 | No | 18,940 | 96.6¢ | $18.5K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 2,529 bets |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 15,800 | 96.2¢ | $15.4K | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 15,261 | 96.1¢ | $14.9K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| buydadeep0x60b5…2a1b | No | 13,487 | 96.7¢ | $13.2K | Proven+$2.47 per $100 · 185 bets |
| morguet0x4ae9…b1ef | No | 10,417 | 96.1¢ | $10.2K | New62 settled bets |
| Winninghumbly0x9a4a…170f | No | 10,000 | 96.0¢ | $9.75K | Positive+$1.99 per $100 · 164 bets |
| 0xc7fb…e5fd | No | 8,000 | 95.3¢ | $7.8K | Proven+$5.88 per $100 · 1,013 bets |
| aimforthebushes0xbc26…15f9 | Yes | 295,538 | 3.8¢ | $7.24K | New54 settled bets |
| 0xcb01…7dfb | Yes | 295,527 | 3.6¢ | $7.24K | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 6,534 bets |
| twnormie0xbe1d…3c6e | No | 7,141 | 98.1¢ | $6.97K | Losing−$1.92 per $100 · 123 bets |
| frankxyz0x0520…9708 | No | 7,000 | 96.2¢ | $6.83K | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 430 bets |
| 0xc997…26f6 | No | 6,436 | 97.0¢ | $6.28K | New0 settled bets |
| agagyu0x2136…ee56 | No | 5,797 | 96.4¢ | $5.66K | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 178 bets |
| ledgersurpol0x8d82…c7e9 | No | 5,505 | 96.0¢ | $5.37K | New47 settled bets |
| Niki09020x2271…b8f1 | No | 4,167 | 96.1¢ | $4.06K | Proven+$9.49 per $100 · 104 bets |
| seafoodcapital0xbb8b…4b1c | No | 4,134 | 95.9¢ | $4.03K | New19 settled bets |
| Dropper0x6bab…1292 | No | 4,113 | 94.0¢ | $4.01K | Proven+$4.27 per $100 · 2,262 bets |
| Sparta1211220120xf666…24df | No | 4,098 | 97.7¢ | $4K | New13 settled bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | No | 4,088 | 96.8¢ | $3.99K | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 2,393 bets |
| k00pa0xa289…d95c | No | 3,465 | 95.3¢ | $3.38K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 394 bets |
| mpstire-lutuwar0xfde1…3690 | No | 3,454 | 96.1¢ | $3.37K | Proven+$5.27 per $100 · 220 bets |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | No | 3,362 | 95.8¢ | $3.28K | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| ErnstKuzorra0xad8e…776e | No | 3,130 | 96.0¢ | $3.05K | Losing−$1.19 per $100 · 621 bets |
| Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4 | No | 3,000 | 97.6¢ | $2.93K | Proven+$3.05 per $100 · 1,767 bets |
| norrisfan0xe72b…b0a0 | Yes | 113,024 | 3.4¢ | $2.77K | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 1,296 bets |
| MirAsifAhr0x9437…e75f | No | 2,800 | 96.3¢ | $2.73K | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 552 bets |
| Test.10xd08b…b74c | No | 2,700 | 96.7¢ | $2.63K | Losing−$2.36 per $100 · 506 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 2,655 | 97.2¢ | $2.59K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| gaclfz0xdf80…3259 | No | 2,222 | 88.7¢ | $2.17K | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 2,300 bets |
| JhonAlexanderHinestroza0x44c5…8d45 | No | 2,085 | 80.4¢ | $2.03K | Positive+$1.22 per $100 · 2,846 bets |
| gamblito0x6452…30a1 | No | 2,041 | 98.0¢ | $1.99K | Losing−$6.12 per $100 · 391 bets |
| TradeDoggo-Elite0x0029…d342 | No | 1,895 | 95.0¢ | $1.85K | New18 settled bets |
| borja130x454c…bd22 | Yes | 74,581 | 2.4¢ | $1.83K | Proven+$15.57 per $100 · 380 bets |
| FxnEdge0x2956…d31b | No | 1,824 | 96.6¢ | $1.78K | Positive+$3.36 per $100 · 686 bets |
| PicklePredictor0x33e5…1c91 | No | 1,683 | 97.1¢ | $1.64K | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 1,664 bets |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | No | 1,400 | 94.1¢ | $1.37K | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 1,492 bets |
| Constancefung0x9a5d…4261 | No | 1,311 | 96.6¢ | $1.28K | Positive+$1.53 per $100 · 833 bets |
| P1kaso0x4aef…9337 | No | 1,306 | 94.8¢ | $1.27K | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 3,744 bets |
| blyat2550x5e9a…d183 | No | 1,280 | 82.5¢ | $1.25K | New11 settled bets |
| Be-water-myfriend0xdb75…08ea | No | 1,215 | 96.1¢ | $1.19K | New10 settled bets |
| pika-9670x8e98…f6ad | No | 1,096 | 98.1¢ | $1.07K | New28 settled bets |
| Meacrob0x8630…91c9 | No | 1,080 | 89.1¢ | $1.05K | Losing−$8.89 per $100 · 199 bets |
| coyg18860x795f…2890 | No | 1,063 | 96.0¢ | $1.04K | New11 settled bets |
| Jatio0x219a…a647 | No | 1,026 | 97.6¢ | $1K | Break-even+$0.63 per $100 · 1,885 bets |
| ajaaja0x93d4…7345 | No | 1,000 | 96.2¢ | $976 | Break-even−$0.95 per $100 · 238 bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 1,000 | 94.8¢ | $975 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| de5nuts0x80a0…5708 | Yes | 36,240 | 17.6¢ | $888 | Proven+$9.80 per $100 · 336 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 36,193 | 2.0¢ | $887 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,396 bets |
| LilLoose0xe87f…f1e6 | No | 859 | 58.2¢ | $838 | Losing−$2.43 per $100 · 627 bets |
| 0xb225…3d54 | Yes | 32,263 | 5.1¢ | $790 | Losing−$7.94 per $100 · 105 bets |
| Gfrancog0x3998…42a3 | Yes | 30,247 | 2.4¢ | $741 | — |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | Yes | 29,037 | 2.5¢ | $711 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| qqq890x575a…bba6 | Yes | 28,746 | 4.4¢ | $704 | Losing−$2.13 per $100 · 207 bets |
| dips.0xc785…4ef2 | Yes | 28,422 | 2.7¢ | $696 | Break-even−$0.53 per $100 · 30,440+ bets · updating |
| vinisw0xa8ac…2613 | Yes | 27,493 | 41.8¢ | $674 | New54 settled bets |
| 0x398b…be1f | Yes | 24,105 | 13.3¢ | $591 | New57 settled bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 21,706 | 1.8¢ | $532 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| leej99990x3839…c3aa | Yes | 18,467 | 5.4¢ | $452 | New1 settled bet |
| Santi0070x5c06…24a3 | Yes | 18,080 | 3.9¢ | $443 | New1 settled bet |
| 0x54a5…ee3d | Yes | 17,000 | 3.0¢ | $416 | New96 settled bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | Yes | 16,417 | 4.4¢ | $402 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| Euan0xdd22…9ef1 | Yes | 16,018 | 4.2¢ | $392 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 2,621 bets |
| lll1lll0x4043…05e9 | Yes | 15,074 | 2.8¢ | $369 | New99 settled bets |
| 0xdae8…7c9c | Yes | 15,045 | 3.4¢ | $369 | New27 settled bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | 14,991 | 3.9¢ | $367 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| timebrotime0x606d…1aaf | Yes | 13,953 | 4.4¢ | $342 | Proven+$3.83 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 11,248 | 4.0¢ | $276 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| 0x3814…17bc | Yes | 11,187 | 3.8¢ | $274 | Break-even+$0.71 per $100 · 502 bets |
| 0x86f6…8993 | Yes | 11,012 | 5.2¢ | $270 | New39 settled bets |
| Ntinos0xcb29…625b | Yes | 10,986 | 4.2¢ | $269 | Losing−$17.64 per $100 · 125 bets |
| 0xcca9…4c9f | Yes | 10,288 | 45.8¢ | $252 | Break-even−$0.50 per $100 · 265 bets |
| Bayello0x469c…35ec | Yes | 10,128 | 3.1¢ | $248 | New7 settled bets |
| Qiyamresma0x075b…17af | Yes | 10,000 | 2.4¢ | $245 | New17 settled bets |
| camb-0x6adf…4f5b | Yes | 10,000 | 3.9¢ | $245 | Positive+$3.41 per $100 · 474 bets |
| ReiToto0xb96c…6cc6 | Yes | 10,000 | 1.8¢ | $245 | Proven+$5.42 per $100 · 806 bets |
| KristonTiti0x29cd…972a | Yes | 10,000 | 3.0¢ | $245 | Losing−$11.98 per $100 · 108 bets |
| 0x7ec0…503e | Yes | 9,951 | 2.9¢ | $244 | New3 settled bets |
| xiangnan0xe9fb…db1f | Yes | 9,941 | 5.3¢ | $244 | New7 settled bets |
| psypaswdu0x2198…0845 | Yes | 9,304 | 3.3¢ | $228 | New5 settled bets |
| souperman0x3e35…4f69 | Yes | 7,877 | 4.4¢ | $193 | New30 settled bets |
| Trader1200x3de6…e560 | Yes | 7,793 | 3.7¢ | $191 | Losing−$4.32 per $100 · 27,047 bets |
| Ale8cc0x1994…b4e5 | Yes | 7,744 | 21.9¢ | $190 | Losing−$14.75 per $100 · 192 bets |
| surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8 | Yes | 7,465 | 2.3¢ | $183 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 707 bets |
| KjerstinDellert0x2d1b…5adb | Yes | 7,462 | 33.0¢ | $183 | Proven+$11.41 per $100 · 319 bets |
| AlexZ70x3896…ece6 | Yes | 7,307 | 23.4¢ | $179 | Positive+$1.89 per $100 · 313 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 7,282 | 1.1¢ | $178 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,224 bets |
| Edje250x6268…6031 | Yes | 7,081 | 2.2¢ | $173 | Positive+$30.99 per $100 · 1,817 bets |
| 0x5e9f…91db | Yes | 6,994 | 2.7¢ | $171 | Proven+$23.37 per $100 · 535 bets |
| almosthere0xbd2b…1a1b | Yes | 6,911 | 2.8¢ | $169 | Positive+$6.09 per $100 · 137 bets |
| VGR220x7cbe…c4b7 | Yes | 6,781 | 2.1¢ | $166 | Positive+$5.90 per $100 · 3,100 bets |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 6,500 | 1.7¢ | $159 | Positive+$6.43 per $100 · 7,366 bets |
| AiBets0x2137…0677 | Yes | 6,086 | 4.3¢ | $149 | Proven+$2.67 per $100 · 2,524 bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | 5,719 | 4.4¢ | $140 | Losing−$17.35 per $100 · 7,305 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.