Market · 4 of 19 outcomes
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 23:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ymbetzzz0xcd61…0002 | No | 1,593 | 72.3¢ | $1.15K | Losing−$2.97 per $100 · 335 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 1,465 | 72.3¢ | $1.05K | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,656 bets |
| aliaspopeye0x8713…196b | No | 1,460 | 69.0¢ | $1.05K | — |
| 212broly0xef2b…fb1a | No | 1,335 | 73.4¢ | $961 | — |
| bearbees20x12b8…479c | No | 1,000 | 70.0¢ | $720 | Positive+$1.30 per $100 · 259 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | No | 879 | 69.6¢ | $633 | Proven+$4.91 per $100 · 2,290 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 2,213 | 31.8¢ | $620 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 771 | 72.8¢ | $555 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,246 bets |
| ABC123456543210x852e…ca77 | Yes | 1,898 | 30.8¢ | $531 | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 12,178 bets |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | No | 673 | 73.9¢ | $485 | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| sciuboi0xd6b6…342b | No | 621 | 62.2¢ | $447 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 584 bets |
| cosmin19920xa06e…f2f9 | Yes | 1,305 | 31.7¢ | $365 | — |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 500 | 84.7¢ | $360 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 790 bets |
| balabalababalabala0x2779…239a | No | 500 | 70.0¢ | $360 | Losing−$4.35 per $100 · 2,323 bets |
| DuneMentat0x28ca…5d19 | No | 478 | 68.7¢ | $344 | Losing−$1.16 per $100 · 5,584 bets |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 1,216 | 22.8¢ | $341 | Losing−$9.60 per $100 · 56,831+ bets · updating |
| Snoorrason0x805a…0635 | No | 462 | 76.1¢ | $333 | Positive+$2.75 per $100 · 6,247 bets |
| Socialista0xfa01…f0a7 | Yes | 1,078 | 30.9¢ | $302 | Break-even−$0.52 per $100 · 7,515 bets |
| Runner1090x6a67…df6f | Yes | 1,028 | 25.9¢ | $288 | Positive+$2.00 per $100 · 672 bets |
| Prinas0x3032…99e7 | No | 281 | 72.2¢ | $202 | Proven+$9.08 per $100 · 394 bets |
| VGR220x7cbe…c4b7 | Yes | 645 | 25.9¢ | $181 | Positive+$5.90 per $100 · 3,105 bets |
| DippyDawg0xd95c…7dd1 | Yes | 523 | 31.0¢ | $147 | — |
| 0xdc52…5627 | Yes | 512 | 20.3¢ | $143 | — |
| 0xd94d…e6cf | No | 179 | 73.2¢ | $129 | — |
| clave0x7093…a919 | No | 173 | 82.2¢ | $125 | — |
| 0xbbe7…b7f9 | Yes | 368 | 22.5¢ | $103 | — |
| oneoftheppl0x4d1d…01ac | No | 141 | 71.7¢ | $102 | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 7,403 bets |
| ReiToto0xb96c…6cc6 | Yes | 331 | 25.2¢ | $93 | Proven+$5.42 per $100 · 806 bets |
| trumpinoo0xaf6d…f13b | No | 120 | 87.4¢ | $86 | — |
| Mst-br0xdda5…c82a | No | 120 | 89.7¢ | $86 | — |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | Yes | 300 | 31.0¢ | $84 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| lucyluck0x9da7…8bb1 | No | 110 | 65.0¢ | $79 | — |
| StillWater00x7bab…8322 | No | 100 | 65.0¢ | $72 | Proven+$8.71 per $100 · 527 bets |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 100 | 71.0¢ | $72 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 991 bets |
| yannfournier0xcc8a…7d9c | No | 94 | 75.6¢ | $67 | — |
| bananabreakfast0xe338…64ad | Yes | 239 | 30.7¢ | $67 | — |
| Antoschka030x5530…9bfa | Yes | 203 | 29.1¢ | $57 | — |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | Yes | 164 | 24.9¢ | $46 | — |
| Archeval0xec25…a6cb | No | 60 | 74.0¢ | $43 | — |
| 0xfb89…a59d | Yes | 150 | 24.9¢ | $42 | — |
| ShadowVorcaro0x201c…6bfe | No | 50 | 60.2¢ | $36 | — |
| Trader1200x3de6…e560 | Yes | 123 | 30.8¢ | $34 | Losing−$4.33 per $100 · 27,167 bets |
| 0xc9a90290332fa3ea9885f1e2ce466e6baf0c2930xb8a9…2948 | Yes | 119 | 11.0¢ | $33 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 45 | 71.3¢ | $32 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| yetiyetiyeti0x9cfc…3671 | No | 41 | 74.0¢ | $30 | — |
| DREAMBIG.0x9e8e…8db8 | No | 40 | 0.0¢ | $29 | Proven+$18.01 per $100 · 5,706 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 100 | 29.0¢ | $28 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| rocky420040xcf37…993f | No | 34 | 70.9¢ | $24 | — |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | No | 34 | 60.0¢ | $24 | Positive+$6.43 per $100 · 7,366 bets |
| Ribot0x25d6…e5e9 | Yes | 84 | 29.3¢ | $23 | — |
| DrS80x03bc…530c | Yes | 80 | 33.0¢ | $22 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 1,985 bets |
| burakrum0x9fcf…8907 | No | 28 | 74.0¢ | $20 | — |
| alexanderweber0xb716…3806 | No | 28 | 72.0¢ | $20 | — |
| Bergitrus0x1a24…ea88 | Yes | 69 | 14.6¢ | $19 | — |
| qur1l0x5b5f…d5b2 | Yes | 69 | 30.0¢ | $19 | — |
| aspitirus0xb763…51e3 | Yes | 69 | 30.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 26 | 70.0¢ | $18 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| Zelenearn00xb04a…acfc | Yes | 60 | 30.7¢ | $17 | — |
| GGbondCC0xe5ed…a4f5 | No | 21 | 91.5¢ | $15 | — |
| RolandZhang0x0cd6…2784 | Yes | 50 | 30.1¢ | $14 | Losing−$7.28 per $100 · 216 bets |
| 0x8cf2…610f | Yes | 50 | 31.1¢ | $14 | — |
| Johnsinus0x994a…b5f9 | Yes | 50 | 10.5¢ | $14 | — |
| Andrei5060xdab2…24ff | Yes | 48 | 43.2¢ | $13 | — |
| obscure10x8268…e7fd | No | 18 | 73.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$8.89 per $100 · 1,890 bets |
| mxmssj0xd01f…74ab | Yes | 40 | 29.0¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x5b9d…33fd | Yes | 38 | 31.3¢ | $11 | — |
| kreoooooe0x04ce…c645 | No | 14 | 73.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$16.32 per $100 · 118 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 34 | 28.7¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| lauriecruz0x65d9…dc90 | No | 13 | 66.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Fglb0x3a66…8c0c | No | 13 | 77.9¢ | $9 | — |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | Yes | 32 | 27.0¢ | $9 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| 0x4e9e…6f3e | Yes | 31 | 28.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$3.98 per $100 · 1,237 bets |
| zhukov260x3a5a…3427 | Yes | 30 | 23.9¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xbd2d…e040 | Yes | 30 | 31.1¢ | $8 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 30 | 33.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 26 | 27.9¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,209 bets |
| TigerManagmentSports0x01f1…5a22 | Yes | 24 | 22.9¢ | $7 | — |
| ox01e607d27875e10bb09FcF3309C899a6643136410x01e6…3641 | No | 9 | 71.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$2.24 per $100 · 153 bets |
| qcp140xa76b…8a50 | No | 9 | 77.0¢ | $6 | — |
| GamblingGoku0x0fbb…852e | Yes | 21 | 31.0¢ | $6 | — |
| mayurBaulah0x32ce…2ecf | Yes | 21 | 10.0¢ | $6 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 20 | 28.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 20 | 0.0¢ | $6 | — |
| SnowRazer0x40c2…b2fc | Yes | 20 | 29.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.86 per $100 · 6,416 bets |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | Yes | 20 | 10.0¢ | $6 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 20 | 31.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| SadTofuGan0xaf1f…4af9 | No | 7 | 71.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x2757…2f31 | No | 7 | 72.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x8732…3eb6 | Yes | 17 | 31.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x07dd…ae34 | No | 6 | 75.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Mar1tn0x57f6…509b | Yes | 15 | 31.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xfa01…800a | No | 5 | 76.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | 5 | 76.0¢ | $4 | — |
| lebakaspeppi0x7e23…7896 | No | 5 | 71.1¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x7aa4…c822 | No | 4 | 74.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xb3a3…8866 | No | 3 | 61.5¢ | $2 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 3 | 73.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.