Market · 3 of 16 outcomes
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:10 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LJa7io23MCv954j0x85a8…9281 | No | 8,683 | 80.7¢ | $8.08K | — |
| M2sx92kljs420xb4f2…e5fa | No | 6,166 | 82.4¢ | $5.73K | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 549 bets |
| FastPaws0x0548…d852 | No | 1,697 | 91.5¢ | $1.58K | New39 settled bets |
| mocamoca0x45b2…cbc1 | No | 1,052 | 19.0¢ | $978 | — |
| Giannis20260xe5b4…1e3e | No | 750 | 70.3¢ | $697 | Proven+$13.43 per $100 · 350 bets |
| tnl0xb619…5068 | No | 462 | 79.0¢ | $429 | Break-even+$0.97 per $100 · 1,242 bets |
| 0x90f4…98e2 | No | 440 | 90.9¢ | $409 | — |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 5,000 | 26.5¢ | $350 | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| dyjsrs0x42cb…bd07 | No | 354 | 72.0¢ | $329 | — |
| yjfrgg0x470d…6687 | No | 315 | 72.0¢ | $293 | — |
| 0x5ace…07c1 | No | 312 | 72.5¢ | $290 | — |
| gvuilxfdr0x0da7…9684 | No | 300 | 72.0¢ | $279 | — |
| hserasefs0xaa4c…737e | No | 286 | 72.0¢ | $266 | — |
| ansatz0x5fa4…cd4e | No | 219 | 73.1¢ | $204 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 320 bets |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | No | 215 | 78.2¢ | $200 | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 1,492 bets |
| TheKinginYellow0x4ac9…cf1a | No | 209 | 77.6¢ | $195 | — |
| poli.monaco0xf767…61df | No | 200 | 26.0¢ | $186 | — |
| Basque0xfb26…06f7 | No | 184 | 83.0¢ | $171 | New55 settled bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 2,240 | 19.6¢ | $157 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| 0x452d…f886 | No | 156 | 91.0¢ | $145 | — |
| Goorsakbardari0x5670…2b9c | No | 144 | 90.3¢ | $134 | — |
| q828503250xce38…1325 | No | 144 | 69.5¢ | $134 | — |
| EhBC0xebef…8731 | No | 142 | 70.4¢ | $132 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 140 | 84.9¢ | $131 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,914 bets |
| PolyJaguar0xc18b…3917 | Yes | 1,816 | 17.3¢ | $127 | Positive+$11.33 per $100 · 989 bets |
| rgess0x2c7a…6875 | Yes | 1,717 | 28.4¢ | $120 | — |
| BaruchGuilty0xb3be…1015 | No | 120 | 41.6¢ | $112 | — |
| SenseiX0x7f70…fe56 | No | 120 | 84.0¢ | $112 | — |
| yusu67850xa32c…fa98 | No | 120 | 87.0¢ | $112 | — |
| hjft3650x8634…5677 | No | 115 | 87.0¢ | $107 | — |
| hgfhg5860xc81c…8974 | No | 114 | 87.0¢ | $106 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 1,466 | 25.0¢ | $103 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| 0x3c9d…f272 | No | 110 | 91.0¢ | $102 | — |
| dfhsr3530xf874…1ee0 | No | 100 | 87.0¢ | $93 | — |
| rtyhsdd0x1000…7bdc | Yes | 1,255 | 28.0¢ | $88 | — |
| tyt675670x387d…3dda | No | 94 | 87.0¢ | $87 | — |
| sfgfh670xb8aa…e28e | No | 90 | 87.0¢ | $84 | — |
| ghgfh6750x731d…edb9 | No | 85 | 87.0¢ | $79 | — |
| fhh57470xaddf…5a9d | No | 82 | 87.0¢ | $76 | — |
| 0xd512…79b3 | Yes | 1,073 | 32.9¢ | $75 | — |
| gjjhg76570xdc46…5157 | No | 80 | 87.0¢ | $74 | — |
| daniljacent10x38cf…c713 | No | 73 | 81.9¢ | $68 | — |
| 0x0456…c88a | No | 71 | 93.0¢ | $66 | — |
| 0xe7cf…0c26 | No | 68 | 73.0¢ | $64 | — |
| hdzhf2430xd109…94f9 | Yes | 880 | 13.0¢ | $62 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 864 | 17.2¢ | $61 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| semantics0x8dcf…5668 | No | 63 | 79.8¢ | $58 | Losing−$3.35 per $100 · 235 bets |
| tudousi0x4c91…8aef | No | 62 | 74.0¢ | $58 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 685 | 8.7¢ | $48 | Losing−$2.76 per $100 · 122,728 bets |
| melganis0x0bfb…26a7 | No | 50 | 67.0¢ | $47 | Proven+$4.74 per $100 · 2,885 bets |
| chaoqiezi0x5a77…38a4 | No | 50 | 76.0¢ | $47 | — |
| ofcourseistillloveyou20190xcea0…3d06 | No | 50 | 91.0¢ | $47 | Break-even+$0.13 per $100 · 1,507 bets |
| jinjv0xdd0a…a86c | No | 50 | 74.0¢ | $47 | — |
| Freedomforall0x9bac…8f18 | Yes | 620 | 24.0¢ | $43 | — |
| vbm0x8304…f086 | No | 40 | 90.0¢ | $37 | — |
| 0x7ac6…92ca | Yes | 507 | 46.6¢ | $35 | — |
| Feen-8530xd071…30b6 | No | 37 | 91.5¢ | $35 | — |
| Trading4Fridge0x2525…b919 | Yes | 444 | 27.7¢ | $31 | — |
| paiqiu10x08fc…8802 | No | 33 | 74.0¢ | $31 | — |
| 0x8b54…167f | No | 32 | 90.0¢ | $30 | — |
| hangbaicai0xafa4…bb29 | No | 30 | 74.0¢ | $28 | — |
| Jermu12340x7ad2…45a0 | No | 28 | 88.0¢ | $26 | — |
| Azmar00x31b5…8fd7 | No | 28 | 71.0¢ | $26 | — |
| Mitakaasa70x6312…f94e | Yes | 369 | 23.3¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 2,037 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 349 | 33.2¢ | $24 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,032 bets |
| Fullvie0x6286…f59c | Yes | 321 | 55.1¢ | $22 | — |
| NTYLD0x5a33…7302 | Yes | 320 | 22.7¢ | $22 | — |
| BukharinBergbergstein0xfad9…a3d2 | Yes | 298 | 33.5¢ | $21 | — |
| KakiBatusik0x371c…c236 | Yes | 250 | 10.0¢ | $18 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 248 | 9.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| lizhi00xdaa3…1f6e | Yes | 220 | 24.0¢ | $15 | — |
| Whylik0x7add…f9f4 | Yes | 220 | 48.5¢ | $15 | — |
| ItaiB0x82b6…5a2e | Yes | 215 | 46.1¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xb9f5…8f3c | Yes | 200 | 0.0¢ | $14 | — |
| BASSATS010xe4ca…1383 | Yes | 174 | 23.0¢ | $12 | — |
| Simon4s0xe8a6…644b | Yes | 158 | 24.8¢ | $11 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 150 | 8.2¢ | $10 | — |
| Diplopia20x272c…7f07 | Yes | 146 | 32.9¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.26 per $100 · 806 bets |
| Safdar160x86f3…af44 | Yes | 139 | 22.8¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xcce8…4197 | Yes | 139 | 35.9¢ | $10 | — |
| unbothered0xa66c…554e | Yes | 127 | 81.0¢ | $9 | — |
| AltiGabi0x0d27…6e05 | Yes | 125 | 16.6¢ | $9 | — |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 125 | 17.5¢ | $9 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 124 | 7.4¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 115 | 7.7¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 4,762 bets |
| Shekel0x3e56…35d5 | Yes | 109 | 34.5¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x736e…a144 | Yes | 100 | 15.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Sid9990x7738…76a4 | Yes | 99 | 22.7¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | 75 | 25.7¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.53 per $100 · 919 bets |
| Bsau40x8b44…63fb | Yes | 74 | 23.0¢ | $5 | — |
| saiwang20260x025d…5b22 | Yes | 70 | 28.6¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xbaf7…b963 | Yes | 70 | 35.8¢ | $5 | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 67 | 74.8¢ | $5 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| 0x69d7…c25c | Yes | 56 | 18.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xaa06…1e0f | Yes | 52 | 28.7¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.25 per $100 · 1,046 bets |
| 1BTCis1BTC0xc759…b965 | Yes | 50 | 8.0¢ | $4 | — |
| sundayhd0x26f9…f183 | Yes | 50 | 29.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Naskhal0xabf5…89a4 | Yes | 50 | 10.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xe38a…f2c3 | Yes | 50 | 18.1¢ | $4 | — |
| vicvic40x42b0…dfd5 | Yes | 50 | 27.0¢ | $3 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.