Market · 4 of 19 outcomes
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:37 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 19 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
12 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 74,010 | 93.8¢ | $72.5K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| DonaldinhoTrumpito0x7523…4c4c | No | 50,000 | 98.0¢ | $49K | Break-even−$0.92 per $100 · 2,013 bets |
| AZwater0x8245…ebed | No | 49,096 | 97.6¢ | $48.1K | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 5,681 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 13,858 | 91.1¢ | $13.6K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,933 bets |
| koriander0xbeca…a1b7 | No | 12,793 | 90.2¢ | $12.5K | — |
| Momo630x09be…9c32 | No | 12,075 | 93.3¢ | $11.8K | Positive+$1.45 per $100 · 605 bets |
| de5nuts0x80a0…5708 | No | 10,700 | 90.3¢ | $10.5K | Proven+$9.80 per $100 · 336 bets |
| Winninghumbly0x9a4a…170f | No | 10,000 | 96.6¢ | $9.79K | Positive+$1.99 per $100 · 164 bets |
| frankxyz0x0520…9708 | No | 9,993 | 91.1¢ | $9.79K | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 430 bets |
| Nik-0x9e80…f694 | No | 6,239 | 93.2¢ | $6.11K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 2,529 bets |
| zthunderfury0xc682…17bb | No | 3,883 | 93.5¢ | $3.8K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 497 bets |
| 0xcb01…7dfb | Yes | 108,389 | 6.8¢ | $2.22K | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 6,524 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 2,176 | 96.0¢ | $2.13K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| dp.p0x639d…4777 | No | 1,773 | 98.1¢ | $1.74K | Positive+$11.60 per $100 · 7,437 bets |
| surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8 | Yes | 78,435 | 9.6¢ | $1.61K | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 705 bets |
| 0x1f93…d848 | No | 1,540 | 90.7¢ | $1.51K | — |
| mpstire-lutuwar0xfde1…3690 | No | 1,500 | 96.9¢ | $1.47K | Proven+$5.27 per $100 · 220 bets |
| iscaster20x7eef…81b8 | No | 1,370 | 90.8¢ | $1.34K | — |
| boyau0xe734…4f0c | Yes | 60,000 | 5.9¢ | $1.23K | Proven+$8.64 per $100 · 551 bets |
| FxnEdge0x2956…d31b | No | 1,250 | 92.1¢ | $1.22K | Positive+$3.36 per $100 · 686 bets |
| mifengs0xcb85…3ee2 | No | 1,235 | 89.4¢ | $1.21K | — |
| opn3b0x9723…0e2e | No | 1,230 | 91.1¢ | $1.2K | — |
| marchettamaker0xfaeb…e98e | Yes | 51,249 | 8.4¢ | $1.05K | New34 settled bets |
| Niki09020x2271…b8f1 | No | 1,043 | 96.0¢ | $1.02K | Proven+$9.49 per $100 · 104 bets |
| 0xacb7…c93f | No | 1,040 | 92.6¢ | $1.02K | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 48,713 | 4.2¢ | $999 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,170 bets |
| Constancefung0x9a5d…4261 | No | 1,007 | 95.6¢ | $987 | Positive+$1.53 per $100 · 833 bets |
| borja130x454c…bd22 | Yes | 47,963 | 5.2¢ | $983 | Proven+$15.57 per $100 · 380 bets |
| 3musketeers0xb251…6f5b | No | 1,000 | 88.4¢ | $979 | Proven+$6.86 per $100 · 663 bets |
| soupdumplin0x59b8…11a5 | No | 996 | 90.8¢ | $975 | — |
| tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5 | Yes | 42,443 | 5.4¢ | $870 | Break-even−$0.43 per $100 · 1,083 bets |
| 0xfec5…ae41 | No | 857 | 91.7¢ | $840 | — |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 39,782 | 4.4¢ | $816 | Positive+$6.45 per $100 · 7,363 bets |
| -Guapo--0x8725…eb10 | No | 807 | 65.2¢ | $790 | Losing−$4.67 per $100 · 13,454 bets |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | No | 800 | 93.1¢ | $784 | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 1,492 bets |
| interboys0x8491…f31f | No | 757 | 88.5¢ | $741 | — |
| Gwigwi1994030x744b…8d31 | No | 754 | 93.2¢ | $738 | — |
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | Yes | 34,759 | 2.0¢ | $713 | Proven+$4.09 per $100 · 1,071 bets |
| luckyass0xd466…8f57 | No | 727 | 92.1¢ | $712 | — |
| leegunner0xe542…0a37 | Yes | 34,725 | 10.4¢ | $712 | Proven+$8.60 per $100 · 7,245 bets |
| trader-05ddbe2e0x05dd…305c | No | 727 | 94.7¢ | $712 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 19,460 bets |
| rikii0x90e5…d948 | No | 713 | 89.2¢ | $699 | — |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | No | 700 | 97.1¢ | $686 | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 2,393 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 30,250 | 2.0¢ | $620 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| 0xd636…230b | No | 559 | 90.1¢ | $547 | — |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | Yes | 25,974 | 6.5¢ | $532 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| 0x36d7…5013 | No | 526 | 92.6¢ | $516 | — |
| nivis7770x5717…1648 | Yes | 24,922 | 2.1¢ | $511 | — |
| MirAsifAhr0x9437…e75f | No | 509 | 88.6¢ | $499 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 552 bets |
| FutureExitLiq0x261f…1709 | No | 500 | 91.7¢ | $490 | — |
| SickandTired0x290d…dc40 | No | 500 | 88.7¢ | $490 | — |
| vinisw0xa8ac…2613 | Yes | 22,805 | 9.5¢ | $468 | New54 settled bets |
| qwerqwer0xbccb…6d3a | Yes | 22,609 | 6.3¢ | $463 | — |
| edmurphy0x025a…c851 | No | 450 | 90.6¢ | $441 | New3 settled bets |
| Specksalam0x80f1…3ccd | Yes | 21,000 | 4.9¢ | $430 | New88 settled bets |
| Emri0x5175…1546 | Yes | 20,960 | 10.4¢ | $430 | Losing−$1.38 per $100 · 179 bets |
| 0x10b5…33f9 | No | 432 | 92.8¢ | $423 | — |
| kkrll130x7d95…e40c | Yes | 20,629 | 2.7¢ | $423 | — |
| puiemsd0x0659…2995 | Yes | 20,360 | 6.6¢ | $417 | New50 settled bets |
| fabzar11110x0219…3529 | Yes | 19,730 | 10.0¢ | $404 | — |
| Melqui0x3e0a…b9cc | No | 400 | 84.0¢ | $392 | Losing−$3.05 per $100 · 810 bets |
| 0x4413…d227 | Yes | 17,919 | 3.4¢ | $367 | — |
| resfeber0x814d…b842 | Yes | 17,430 | 9.9¢ | $357 | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 2,420 bets |
| Test.10xd08b…b74c | No | 364 | 91.5¢ | $356 | Losing−$2.36 per $100 · 506 bets |
| kazama04530xa48a…fe5b | Yes | 16,845 | 2.8¢ | $345 | — |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | Yes | 15,833 | 11.1¢ | $325 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 15,594 | 8.4¢ | $320 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| 0x147e…0a4b | No | 325 | 90.0¢ | $319 | — |
| fernandolt0x6ae0…25de | No | 323 | 92.5¢ | $316 | — |
| Terkha210x668b…e8bf | Yes | 15,069 | 5.1¢ | $309 | — |
| Stelthman0x3716…e831 | No | 308 | 97.4¢ | $302 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 300 | 94.0¢ | $294 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 871 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 300 | 91.2¢ | $294 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| momo5130xcdf8…b8ea | No | 300 | 97.2¢ | $294 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 704 bets |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | 13,544 | 9.8¢ | $278 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,726 bets |
| sasuk30xa561…f676 | Yes | 12,996 | 8.1¢ | $266 | — |
| Blaskinho0xd458…b521 | Yes | 12,958 | 8.0¢ | $266 | Proven+$8.44 per $100 · 841 bets |
| basilkosh0xb82b…fc60 | Yes | 12,889 | 3.1¢ | $264 | Losing−$3.06 per $100 · 321 bets |
| timebrotime0x606d…1aaf | Yes | 12,885 | 11.2¢ | $264 | Proven+$3.83 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| Tobias19090xe394…289c | Yes | 12,678 | 10.1¢ | $260 | Proven+$2.67 per $100 · 1,326 bets |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 12,440 | 3.8¢ | $255 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| mikiikkahhvdud0x8b7b…9ab9 | No | 256 | 97.6¢ | $251 | — |
| ethetheth10x29be…36ad | Yes | 12,197 | 9.3¢ | $250 | — |
| Slayzee0x39a0…882e | Yes | 12,139 | 2.5¢ | $249 | — |
| sciuboi0xd6b6…342b | Yes | 11,244 | 4.2¢ | $231 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 584 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 11,110 | 1.2¢ | $228 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| Edje250x6268…6031 | Yes | 10,792 | 2.2¢ | $221 | Positive+$30.99 per $100 · 1,817 bets |
| kkbest0x2020…4415 | Yes | 10,790 | 4.8¢ | $221 | — |
| Blacktradez0x3628…0396 | Yes | 10,400 | 2.6¢ | $213 | — |
| LaGalaxyLover0x30ce…fdce | Yes | 10,100 | 10.1¢ | $207 | Proven+$13.27 per $100 · 2,287 bets |
| TradingWave0xf49c…9786 | Yes | 10,000 | 8.3¢ | $205 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 396 bets |
| Trader1200x3de6…e560 | Yes | 9,576 | 5.1¢ | $196 | Losing−$4.32 per $100 · 27,047 bets |
| Kimoo770x39bc…28e9 | Yes | 9,234 | 10.5¢ | $189 | New0 settled bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | Yes | 8,741 | 8.7¢ | $179 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| alpha-bonds0xa317…344d | Yes | 8,115 | 12.9¢ | $166 | — |
| P1kaso0x4aef…9337 | Yes | 8,102 | 2.5¢ | $166 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 3,744 bets |
| minmaricinminnar0xfb3f…5447 | Yes | 7,861 | 2.6¢ | $161 | — |
| whispercatalyst0x460a…d738 | Yes | 7,657 | 9.0¢ | $157 | Break-even−$0.54 per $100 · 3,695 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 7,264 | 1.1¢ | $149 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,034 bets |
| WalterSobchack0x64be…c653 | Yes | 4,645 | 13.6¢ | $95 | Losing−$1.06 per $100 · 1,976 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.