Market · 5 of 6 outcomes
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:51 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc3db…0f98 | No | 5,555 | 80.0¢ | $5.08K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 5,000 | 88.0¢ | $4.58K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| maritime63070x5c29…358e | No | 3,418 | 84.9¢ | $3.13K | Losing−$13.38 per $100 · 117 bets |
| 0x8e77…c4f3 | No | 2,500 | 88.0¢ | $2.29K | Break-even+$0.52 per $100 · 764 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 1,311 | 84.6¢ | $1.2K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| RdogTest0x9908…062c | No | 982 | 87.6¢ | $899 | — |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | No | 927 | 80.0¢ | $848 | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| Newshound0x5e73…6697 | No | 814 | 74.0¢ | $744 | Proven+$5.54 per $100 · 1,941 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 734 | 83.9¢ | $672 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| HuntersMethDealer0x3989…27b1 | Yes | 7,640 | 21.6¢ | $649 | Positive+$7.46 per $100 · 1,695 bets |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | Yes | 6,000 | 19.0¢ | $510 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,149 bets |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | No | 530 | 87.5¢ | $485 | Proven+$2.64 per $100 · 1,415 bets |
| variant1.meta0xdf59…deb0 | No | 496 | 80.5¢ | $454 | — |
| Snoopy1210x6a82…e2ad | No | 464 | 92.0¢ | $424 | — |
| 0x598e…9d4f | No | 440 | 91.0¢ | $402 | New95 settled bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 429 | 82.2¢ | $393 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| controls0x165e…f5aa | No | 353 | 85.0¢ | $323 | — |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 324 | 90.7¢ | $296 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 322 | 61.0¢ | $295 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,967 bets |
| Mr.Kirk0x8532…738b | Yes | 2,633 | 24.9¢ | $224 | Positive+$1.57 per $100 · 1,509 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 237 | 83.4¢ | $217 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 1,163 bets |
| ansatz0x5fa4…cd4e | No | 206 | 82.0¢ | $188 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 320 bets |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | No | 200 | 70.0¢ | $183 | Break-even−$0.09 per $100 · 1,494 bets |
| wasabeej0x8b02…b95f | No | 200 | 86.0¢ | $183 | — |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | No | 191 | 83.0¢ | $175 | New60 settled bets |
| hormuz-tracker0x3eda…daee | Yes | 2,000 | 23.5¢ | $170 | — |
| Aurimas11120x90be…c800 | No | 150 | 67.0¢ | $137 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 149 | 81.0¢ | $137 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 137 | 83.2¢ | $126 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 1,199 | 21.6¢ | $102 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,278 bets |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | No | 111 | 83.7¢ | $101 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| ktv.politics0xc2d7…deb5 | No | 90 | 84.2¢ | $82 | — |
| webot-ai0xc2a5…0ce9 | No | 79 | 82.0¢ | $72 | New25 settled bets |
| nmnr0xcb86…feda | No | 71 | 87.1¢ | $65 | — |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | No | 67 | 79.0¢ | $61 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| The-Defect0xac6a…2ed3 | No | 54 | 71.0¢ | $50 | — |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | No | 53 | 83.0¢ | $48 | Losing−$25.76 per $100 · 100 bets |
| 0805260x9ad7…4084 | No | 52 | 86.7¢ | $47 | — |
| cookie960xfb41…1fff | Yes | 549 | 17.0¢ | $47 | — |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | Yes | 500 | 15.0¢ | $43 | Proven+$6.72 per $100 · 6,681 bets |
| 0xb502…30b9 | Yes | 500 | 20.0¢ | $43 | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 46 | 81.0¢ | $42 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,393 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 484 | 14.0¢ | $41 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| EconProf0x2811…6818 | No | 44 | 89.0¢ | $41 | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 519 bets |
| Sc2012m0x82fb…0b6e | Yes | 440 | 17.7¢ | $37 | Losing−$2.02 per $100 · 1,618 bets |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 440 | 9.0¢ | $37 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| 0x6c10…df5c | Yes | 400 | 37.0¢ | $34 | Losing−$7.13 per $100 · 1,041 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 399 | 14.0¢ | $34 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 37 | 75.5¢ | $34 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0x0456…c88a | No | 30 | 80.7¢ | $27 | Proven+$4.70 per $100 · 326 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 300 | 0.0¢ | $26 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| 420120xba8d…009d | Yes | 299 | 21.7¢ | $25 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 296 | 39.2¢ | $25 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| 8dcc906a9b0xdbd0…8c1c | Yes | 261 | 13.0¢ | $22 | Losing−$19.90 per $100 · 244 bets |
| SusanWarrenHR0x22db…190f | Yes | 250 | 15.9¢ | $21 | Proven+$4.72 per $100 · 8,310 bets |
| wagdab0x4c5c…685d | No | 23 | 86.6¢ | $21 | — |
| 0x8144…8472 | No | 20 | 50.0¢ | $18 | — |
| 0xdbbe…b2cc | No | 19 | 62.0¢ | $18 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 201 | 8.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 200 | 23.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| ninasimon0x655e…e0cc | No | 18 | 87.3¢ | $17 | Losing−$5.10 per $100 · 236 bets |
| neetbets0x4526…7a45 | Yes | 176 | 47.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$4.13 per $100 · 1,269 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 171 | 13.3¢ | $15 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,693+ bets · updating |
| 0x4eb3…9858 | No | 15 | 65.0¢ | $14 | — |
| goldfinch-cz0xd7a4…8229 | Yes | 148 | 27.0¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 136 | 11.2¢ | $12 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 4,796 bets |
| 0x152e…9963 | Yes | 133 | 15.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 114 bets |
| Karooo0xf283…da05 | No | 12 | 83.0¢ | $11 | — |
| TBill10xd52b…5c72 | Yes | 128 | 26.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 561 bets |
| 0xa319…de3b | No | 12 | 87.2¢ | $11 | — |
| alexludoman0xe117…b4e7 | Yes | 119 | 28.7¢ | $10 | — |
| asa12340xe6dd…f8ee | No | 11 | 91.0¢ | $10 | — |
| grauito0x3057…bf7b | No | 10 | 66.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xc2f0…7ab9 | Yes | 97 | 31.0¢ | $8 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 90 | 39.6¢ | $8 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| Shekel0x3e56…35d5 | No | 8 | 75.4¢ | $7 | — |
| Relaccsed0xa6b7…d5f3 | Yes | 76 | 28.0¢ | $6 | — |
| MahdiGhavi0x34ce…0b77 | Yes | 75 | 20.0¢ | $6 | New93 settled bets |
| smye1000xfb8e…3dc3 | Yes | 69 | 29.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$3.44 per $100 · 5,616 bets |
| alpha5ii-copybestbot0xdaee…8559 | No | 6 | 71.0¢ | $6 | — |
| KenneyG0xc901…0c1d | No | 6 | 82.2¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x9600…58c7 | No | 6 | 70.0¢ | $5 | — |
| rwcoffee0xd8c1…16c0 | Yes | 58 | 43.2¢ | $5 | Losing−$18.99 per $100 · 605 bets |
| Po1yBot-6NEazyE4Ef0x87d1…3da3 | Yes | 58 | 30.3¢ | $5 | — |
| VolynMolfar0x6c2a…b7b5 | Yes | 56 | 16.8¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.70 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | Yes | 50 | 28.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 1,651 bets |
| Pretender10xdd42…c497 | Yes | 32 | 28.8¢ | $3 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 31 | 15.3¢ | $3 | Losing−$7.52 per $100 · 293,648+ bets · updating |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 30 | 14.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| Po1yBot-wfDDVt3EQS0x8ca4…7e83 | Yes | 29 | 29.0¢ | $2 | — |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 26 | 14.1¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| bbd111210x85bc…1909 | Yes | 25 | 25.8¢ | $2 | — |
| PolyEGG0x60a8…7d37 | Yes | 22 | 36.0¢ | $2 | — |
| jensond0xa9b7…f43c | Yes | 19 | 41.0¢ | $2 | — |
| doublett0x4066…f633 | Yes | 16 | 63.0¢ | $1 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 15 | 20.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Mariosai0x759e…5fd6 | Yes | 14 | 37.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0568…2cfa | Yes | 13 | 38.2¢ | $1 | — |
| IamIsaacNewton0x4a54…e1dd | Yes | 13 | 39.0¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.