Market · 8 of 31 outcomes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Gavin Newsom by October 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 00:16 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | 195 | 58.0¢ | $130 | — |
| Tian-Wen0x66c1…fa3f | Yes | 102 | 65.8¢ | $68 | Proven+$12.91 per $100 · 3,548 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 |
| Yes |
| 55 |
| 68.5¢ |
| $36 |
| Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 100 | 54.0¢ | $34 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,098 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 88 | 54.8¢ | $30 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,511+ bets · updating |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 40 | 50.0¢ | $27 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| 0x300f…d366 | No | 48 | 44.9¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x5f3e…5337 | No | 42 | 46.5¢ | $14 | — |
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | Yes | 20 | 72.0¢ | $13 | Proven+$11.17 per $100 · 2,364 bets |
| cacato0xd6df…d71d | Yes | 20 | 65.0¢ | $13 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 29 | 53.5¢ | $10 | — |
| UpTheStairs0x8bac…5b0e | No | 27 | 29.5¢ | $9 | — |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 10 | 55.2¢ | $7 | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | No | 20 | 56.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 2,068 bets |
| 0x36da…907b | No | 20 | 56.0¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.98 per $100 · 399 bets |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | No | 18 | 54.0¢ | $6 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | No | 13 | 26.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 11 | 52.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| makermonke0x6773…99c3 | No | 10 | 57.0¢ | $3 | — |
| random-random1230xa1cc…fa62 | Yes | 5 | 54.4¢ | $3 | — |
| Wartlock0xe856…3789 | No | 6 | 16.7¢ | $2 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | No | 6 | 11.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0xa0c7cA3805C0x4f63…5bbc | No | 5 | 41.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | No | 4 | 53.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| stepangelok0x5024…b562 | Yes | 2 | 53.0¢ | $1 | — |
| hspje890xb44b…3fdb | No | 2 | 54.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Hazel11220xe661…f84a | No | 1 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | Yes | 1 | 53.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | 1 | 57.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xbb90…2335 | No | 1 | 63.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 0 | 36.9¢ | $0 | — |
| greedcash0x8ff1…996c | Yes | 0 | 52.8¢ | $0 | — |
| cloverpmq20xbb10…523d | Yes | 0 | 41.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x0b4d…35bc | No | 0 | 33.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 30 shares each side · Show
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