Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Chance of Yes
▲ 3 pts this week
Money on this event
6 outcomes
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2¢ between buy and sell
Ends
Jan 1
in 80 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?”.
§1This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
§2Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
§3A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level.
§4The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium, will not qualify.
§5The instrument must require the dilution to occur within Iran, or for the diluted material to be returned to Iranian control, having been dilated or downblended elsewhere.
§6Iran need not carry out the downblending or dilution itself; a commitment for a third-party entity (e.g., the IAEA) to perform it will qualify.
§7A commitment to remove enriched uranium from Iranian territory does not qualify, unless the terms of the instrument specifically require the uranium to be diluted and the resulting diluted material be returned to Iran’s possession or control.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 19:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
§8The dilution or downblending of Iranian enriched uranium must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented.
§9A presently-agreed obligation to dilute Iranian uranium will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or exact dilution method, remain subject to future arrangements.
§10A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a dilution requirement in a future agreement) will not qualify.
§11A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify.
§12Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran.
§13Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions.
§14Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.
§15If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify.
§16Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including:
§17(i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument;
§18(ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries;
§19(iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or
§20(iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument.
§21Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text.
§22A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
§23If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text.
§24If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies.
§25An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied.
§26Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran.
§27The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives.
§28A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.
Yes if a written US-Iran instrument commits Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted, signed or adopted by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.§1
Enrichment cap alone
An enrichment cap or moratorium without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium does not qualify.§4
Removal abroad
A commitment to remove enriched uranium from Iran does not qualify unless the instrument requires dilution and return of the diluted material to Iran.§7
Conditional commitment
A conditional commitment whose substantive obligation remains subject to a future agreement, negotiation, or follow-on instrument does not qualify.§10
Later repudiation
Condition is met once the instrument is signed or adopted and qualifies, even if later not in force, ratified, repudiated, withdrawn from, or unimplemented.§26
Counted
Any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran that the instrument provides be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level.§3
Source
Official communications from the US and Iranian governments or their authorized representatives; a consensus of credible major news agency reporting may also…§27
Closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.