Market · 5 of 10 outcomes
Will Arruda win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | No | 3,551 | 99.4¢ | $3.55K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| DarkFish0x87cb…6232 | No | 519 | 90.7¢ | $519 | — |
| sanlitou2026p10x7a8e…89d8 | No | 20 | 99.5¢ | $20 | — |
| ox9614b59508B11504bDA8Ac4FDFBEFc2f92d8D2170x9614…d217 | No | 3 | 99.8¢ | $3 | — |
| lava-lava0x629b…995a | Yes | 3,568 | 0.6¢ | $2 | Proven+$7.83 per $100 · 1,847 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 334 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | Yes | 247 | 8.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| 0x6d70…b809 | Yes | 243 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$70.11 per $100 · 193 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 102 | 7.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0xf03d…21fb | Yes | 100 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| cosmicsteaks0xf4f8…5bf1 | Yes | 87 | 10.1¢ | $0 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 80 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 73 | 1.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 122,975+ bets · updating |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 63 | 5.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 63 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| 0xd487…a674 | Yes | 50 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| godblessme20260x7dcf…a7bd | Yes | 40 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| FrankyFourFingers0xcdbf…1926 | Yes | 39 | 24.0¢ | $0 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 32 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.59 per $100 · 87,225 bets |
| alligatorr0x6e88…bd30 | Yes | 25 | 16.6¢ | $0 | — |
| risknot30x61f2…e2ae | Yes | 23 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 22 | 4.2¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 20 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 20 | 18.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | 14 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$874.43 per $100 · 26,254 bets |
| 0x978b…2add | Yes | 8 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.0x613b…da44 | Yes | 8 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$63.56 per $100 · 34,653+ bets · updating |
| triklozoid0xeab7…b389 | Yes | 5 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2630.36 per $100 · 34,840 bets |
| 0xe41a…29bd | Yes | 4 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| 80sdfs0xfaa2…36bb | Yes | 4 | 24.4¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 4 | 1.6¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Federal District Governor Election · 2026 · 2 events · $12.4K in play
Exactly one of this event's 10 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.