Market · 4 of 30 outcomes
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 30 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 500 | 97.7¢ | $496 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| peivon980x2e68…6898 | No | 112 | 99.3¢ | $111 | — |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | 8,753 | 1.7¢ | $74 | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| okwtfok0x2948…788a | Yes | 6,726 | 1.3¢ | $57 | — |
| 0x9f4c…14dd | Yes | 5,872 | 1.7¢ | $50 | New75 settled bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 5,368 | 1.0¢ | $46 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| 0x1299…6277 | Yes | 4,925 | 4.1¢ | $42 | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 104 bets |
| chx020xfd45…6e52 | No | 37 | 98.9¢ | $36 | — |
| weebbb30x09df…8344 | No | 31 | 99.3¢ | $31 | — |
| hiyhk80x02b2…17b5 | No | 27 | 98.9¢ | $27 | — |
| simplystupid1880x682c…17ae | Yes | 3,149 | 1.0¢ | $27 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 1,501 bets |
| rgess0x2c7a…6875 | Yes | 2,884 | 1.4¢ | $25 | — |
| 0x688b…49f5 | Yes | 1,114 | 1.1¢ | $9 | — |
| leCommissaire0x9238…b73e | Yes | 1,000 | 1.0¢ | $9 | Proven+$12.29 per $100 · 3,032 bets |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 1,000 | 1.2¢ | $9 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| 0a250x4b5b…0872 | Yes | 897 | 0.6¢ | $8 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 729 | 0.8¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| TopNotch0xd765…4b8c | Yes | 720 | 0.8¢ | $6 | — |
| HTHThtghtr0x2db1…5c4f | No | 6 | 97.3¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x508f…fef3 | Yes | 714 | 3.5¢ | $6 | — |
| KING-VIP230xfd66…fb6d | Yes | 703 | 3.2¢ | $6 | Positive+$16.79 per $100 · 3,414 bets |
| asterley0xe762…064b | Yes | 700 | 1.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x1f83…ec5c | Yes | 679 | 1.5¢ | $6 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 5 | 96.9¢ | $5 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 5 | 96.5¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| Quarrelsome-Branch0x0cb1…a76c | Yes | 549 | 1.1¢ | $5 | Proven+$14.27 per $100 · 4,846 bets |
| 0x5533…51ba | Yes | 546 | 0.5¢ | $5 | Positive+$3.29 per $100 · 18,335 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 546 | 2.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,913 bets |
| Trtr20260x0527…20b1 | Yes | 500 | 1.0¢ | $4 | — |
| aleksandrshtefanov0xb91a…29dd | Yes | 485 | 4.1¢ | $4 | — |
| ClariseStarling0070xe55e…e1b8 | Yes | 475 | 1.1¢ | $4 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 471 | 2.3¢ | $4 | Positive+$12.16 per $100 · 3,926 bets |
| adrenvl220xade3…3b44 | Yes | 446 | 1.4¢ | $4 | — |
| PutsOnPeace0x635d…5025 | Yes | 400 | 1.6¢ | $3 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 2,042 bets |
| law-tower0x1c93…be13 | No | 3 | 95.6¢ | $3 | — |
| opp220xa377…a2cc | Yes | 288 | 1.7¢ | $2 | — |
| Bratan0070xca5f…dd36 | Yes | 271 | 3.7¢ | $2 | — |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 268 | 0.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| Hank9090x6757…38e7 | No | 2 | 95.5¢ | $2 | — |
| MemeLoverOfficial0x5d55…7cba | Yes | 240 | 0.5¢ | $2 | Proven+$40.35 per $100 · 15,805 bets |
| LR10xad28…1601 | Yes | 236 | 0.7¢ | $2 | Positive+$2.84 per $100 · 1,226 bets |
| 0xd217…a747 | No | 2 | 99.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xcb31…6b02 | Yes | 205 | 0.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$17.31 per $100 · 1,041 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | Yes | 200 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Poory0x8257…da02 | Yes | 200 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Anonnnn24090x9b22…3a92 | Yes | 198 | 1.0¢ | $2 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 176 | 1.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$5.52 per $100 · 111,745+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 169 | 2.9¢ | $1 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,032 bets |
| 0x683d…53ef | Yes | 150 | 1.3¢ | $1 | — |
| wilkegin0xb14c…7bdb | No | 1 | 99.0¢ | $1 | — |
| kamtheman0xed1a…6c60 | Yes | 144 | 1.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd0b3…62de | Yes | 132 | 1.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xde76…215d | Yes | 130 | 1.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4e11…aac4 | Yes | 125 | 0.8¢ | $1 | — |
| fm140x4b91…982d | Yes | 119 | 0.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x193e…3aab | Yes | 117 | 4.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x6363…98b2 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x7932…453f | No | 1 | 99.4¢ | $1 | — |
| island.luggage.car0x062b…4f9b | No | 1 | 95.2¢ | $1 | — |
| glove-print0xa5b9…441e | No | 1 | 95.2¢ | $1 | — |
| accountyv310xab82…27ed | No | 1 | 95.2¢ | $1 | — |
| sort6100xb395…66ae | No | 1 | 95.2¢ | $1 | — |
| darksoul2380x3f2d…7bc6 | Yes | 116 | 0.9¢ | $1 | — |
| enid910petra0x61d7…87e2 | No | 1 | 98.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Nostradomuscantpicklikeme0x3d60…4741 | Yes | 110 | 3.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2a97…cf3a | Yes | 108 | 2.8¢ | $1 | — |
| rhodajuliana1630x8a00…f968 | No | 1 | 98.7¢ | $1 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 105 | 0.0¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,971 bets |
| Monty5650xfdc5…0e45 | No | 1 | 98.2¢ | $1 | — |
| alfa.engineer0x8902…84d9 | Yes | 104 | 4.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc7bf…cbef | Yes | 103 | 4.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Emmett5940xcdd6…235a | No | 1 | 98.5¢ | $1 | — |
| cillianmarcelle59090xe29c…d964 | No | 1 | 97.7¢ | $1 | — |
| fenghuang19990x6a59…e31a | No | 1 | 98.5¢ | $1 | — |
| dongdo0x3c30…d8ab | No | 1 | 97.5¢ | $1 | — |
| lianne901rue0xb251…dfd5 | No | 1 | 98.9¢ | $1 | — |
| patienceted48590xe39c…b1be | No | 1 | 98.8¢ | $1 | — |
| drpepperhater180xecef…934a | No | 1 | 98.9¢ | $1 | — |
| marybethclementine38250x5d5c…32a9 | No | 1 | 97.9¢ | $1 | — |
| vijay708bethan0x6abb…5ee5 | No | 1 | 98.5¢ | $1 | — |
| Isla5010x862c…ceeb | No | 1 | 97.9¢ | $1 | — |
| s4rin40x398a…6f22 | No | 1 | 98.8¢ | $1 | — |
| jazmin224lester0xa178…ba21 | No | 1 | 98.5¢ | $1 | — |
| camilaianthe67090xe2f0…094f | No | 1 | 98.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Ezio4640x0c53…8de7 | No | 1 | 98.7¢ | $1 | — |
| emptyguitar530x7c09…9461 | No | 1 | 97.9¢ | $0 | — |
| aisling602arabelle0x8423…2a4f | No | 1 | 98.5¢ | $0 | — |
| cfcsn50xca84…717c | No | 1 | 98.4¢ | $0 | — |
| LetTheGoodTimesRoll0x1408…b4f8 | No | 0 | 95.6¢ | $0 | — |
| logan568ashton0xa9a9…4317 | No | 0 | 98.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Jet5180xb913…4abc | No | 0 | 98.8¢ | $0 | — |
| bulbnbob0x77b5…9170 | No | 0 | 81.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Chegildek0xbcc2…8c9a | No | 0 | 91.6¢ | $0 | — |
| everly410mason0x9d91…4f5f | No | 0 | 98.5¢ | $0 | — |
| wilbertrobbie54890xe9f1…3ca6 | No | 0 | 98.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Griselda3490x10e2…1870 | No | 0 | 98.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Kiana7830x900f…c553 | No | 0 | 98.5¢ | $0 | — |
| marcomobile0x3802…8e1d | No | 0 | 98.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Jade6ygb0xac80…366f | No | 0 | 98.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe29f…e326 | No | 0 | 97.6¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.