Market · 6 of 6 outcomes
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:33 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 3,300 | 92.0¢ | $3.15K | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| dontshowmyname0x0c97…1b68 | No | 3,000 | 88.0¢ | $2.87K | Proven+$2.33 per $100 · 1,857 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 2,867 | 93.8¢ | $2.74K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 460 | 88.8¢ | $439 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| tywed0xc8e3…6fb0 | No | 230 | 88.0¢ | $220 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 195 | 88.0¢ | $186 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0x34dc…d280 | No | 117 | 89.6¢ | $112 | — |
| HardZix0xf30a…3583 | No | 100 | 88.0¢ | $96 | — |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 2,040 | 6.0¢ | $92 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 95 | 86.0¢ | $91 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 87 | 87.0¢ | $83 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| NASAMS0xe5c2…94e1 | No | 74 | 81.0¢ | $71 | — |
| carlos-m880xb207…7f71 | No | 65 | 95.0¢ | $62 | — |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 1,192 | 5.8¢ | $54 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 1,160 | 4.3¢ | $52 | Positive+$11.86 per $100 · 5,341 bets |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | No | 50 | 95.0¢ | $48 | — |
| Xyzeric0xe5f5…9c9c | Yes | 1,035 | 8.3¢ | $47 | — |
| 0x022c…4873 | Yes | 1,000 | 5.0¢ | $45 | — |
| maritime63070x5c29…358e | Yes | 596 | 5.3¢ | $27 | Losing−$13.38 per $100 · 117 bets |
| 0x152e…9963 | No | 25 | 80.0¢ | $24 | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 114 bets |
| kahramanjon0x516d…a005 | No | 24 | 94.0¢ | $23 | — |
| ninasimon0x655e…e0cc | No | 22 | 94.9¢ | $21 | Losing−$5.10 per $100 · 236 bets |
| MtnMark0x70ff…b65f | Yes | 450 | 5.4¢ | $20 | Positive+$40.45 per $100 · 239 bets |
| arcanecapital0xae8d…fa5d | No | 20 | 89.0¢ | $19 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 405 | 13.7¢ | $18 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 403 | 5.2¢ | $18 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | Yes | 365 | 5.2¢ | $16 | Proven+$6.72 per $100 · 6,681 bets |
| piyasayapici0x69cd…d48d | Yes | 348 | 5.0¢ | $16 | Losing−$7.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 318 | 8.7¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| hspje890xb44b…3fdb | No | 14 | 91.0¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x01ca…708e | Yes | 250 | 12.0¢ | $11 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 234 | 6.5¢ | $11 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| andy12670x2d6c…67c8 | No | 11 | 94.0¢ | $10 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 222 | 8.0¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,416 bets |
| Nowayfolding0x20b3…d24c | No | 10 | 84.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xca08…c267 | No | 10 | 94.9¢ | $9 | — |
| vivi40240x38a8…865a | Yes | 205 | 14.9¢ | $9 | — |
| PolyEGG0x60a8…7d37 | Yes | 188 | 15.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Conpink0xc8cd…ed53 | No | 5 | 94.0¢ | $5 | — |
| sdhyky0x264c…baca | No | 5 | 80.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 1,477 bets |
| ht94610xdd3e…be0f | No | 4 | 89.0¢ | $4 | — |
| DemiMole0x6061…6813 | Yes | 66 | 12.0¢ | $3 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 54 | 22.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| oxyqste0xa0e1…a653 | Yes | 50 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| lyih830xa56c…2a4a | No | 2 | 87.0¢ | $2 | — |
| guladdin0xdf1d…0171 | Yes | 42 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Po1yBot-6NEazyE4Ef0x87d1…3da3 | Yes | 28 | 13.0¢ | $1 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 27 | 11.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2305…2717 | No | 1 | 90.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Shekel0x3e56…35d5 | No | 1 | 90.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x8021…6189 | No | 1 | 95.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.71 per $100 · 166 bets |
| asfdt10xcf49…ca1b | No | 1 | 94.0¢ | $1 | — |
| satxarbs0xb11d…c337 | Yes | 21 | 11.0¢ | $1 | — |
| lizlocks0x8b1c…1ec7 | Yes | 21 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| euroclydon0xda31…2ec2 | Yes | 17 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 15 | 9.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| 0x5e49…a4f4 | Yes | 10 | 10.1¢ | $0 | — |
| fresh0xd064…c4d1 | Yes | 10 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq0xb119…680b | Yes | 8 | 16.0¢ | $0 | — |
| babafafa850x12b9…d0bf | Yes | 5 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2f66…39b7 | Yes | 5 | 18.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x9de6…e7f0 | Yes | 5 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| wapplegate0x2132…acbe | Yes | 1 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| limearbs0xf331…7e96 | Yes | 1 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2b73…174e | Yes | 0 | 11.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | Yes | 0 | 10.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| dugbarbie0x6d14…579a | Yes | 0 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x43ca2355417D300x9f92…2c2d | Yes | 0 | 20.5¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 12.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | Yes | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| RockyBro0x4e4f…a849 | Yes | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| longdated-poli0x167a…91d5 | Yes | 0 | 7.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.90 per $100 · 4,676 bets |
| 0x34a9…4cfd | Yes | 0 | 14.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.72 per $100 · 2,503 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.