4 (100 bps)

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?”.

1. §1This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
2. §2Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026.
3. §3This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
4. §4For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
5. §5This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
6. §6Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
7. §7The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
8. §8The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.