Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:09 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | No | 48,000 | 85.1¢ | $37.7K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| 456ythgbvcadscvb0xeb6f…25f0 | No | 4,192 | 74.9¢ | $3.29K | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 1,517 bets |
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | No | 4,182 | 82.5¢ | $3.28K | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,831 bets |
| forgetfuldory0xf1e1…6f6f | No | 2,762 | 88.4¢ | $2.17K | New6 settled bets |
| drde0xd0a0…2760 | Yes | 10,000 | 18.0¢ | $2.15K | — |
| gambler9250x76db…6987 | Yes | 8,925 | 20.7¢ | $1.92K | — |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | Yes | 8,840 | 9.4¢ | $1.9K | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 8,124 | 16.1¢ | $1.75K | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| art3698640xbc14…ea95 | Yes | 8,123 | 23.0¢ | $1.75K | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 1,796 | 81.9¢ | $1.41K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| notssf30x5a7b…e9eb | Yes | 6,205 | 44.3¢ | $1.33K | Proven+$9.69 per $100 · 213 bets |
| 0x0bc0…0f2a | Yes | 5,960 | 15.6¢ | $1.28K | — |
| resfeber0x814d…b842 | Yes | 5,681 | 15.7¢ | $1.22K | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 2,420 bets |
| S550x7124…70c1 | No | 1,469 | 85.0¢ | $1.15K | Proven+$6.56 per $100 · 500 bets |
| 0x2a5f…6c92 | Yes | 4,718 | 16.2¢ | $1.01K | Losing−$3.02 per $100 · 114 bets |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | Yes | 4,400 | 15.9¢ | $946 | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 4,358 | 25.2¢ | $937 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| 0xd640…480c | No | 1,076 | 78.9¢ | $844 | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| babyshark.0x36ed…4a93 | No | 1,000 | 77.0¢ | $785 | Break-even−$0.85 per $100 · 253 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 1,000 | 79.8¢ | $785 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 29,989+ bets · updating |
| Poopyface0x4f6c…6909 | No | 971 | 82.9¢ | $762 | — |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | Yes | 3,156 | 26.7¢ | $678 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| MysticFind0x7cf9…2798 | Yes | 3,000 | 8.5¢ | $645 | Positive+$1.93 per $100 · 119 bets |
| iraa30xad60…97f4 | No | 800 | 87.6¢ | $628 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 259 bets |
| Orange.gold0x0cb5…4e68 | Yes | 2,800 | 40.6¢ | $602 | — |
| electionplayer0x5fe7…44a2 | Yes | 2,712 | 45.2¢ | $583 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 2,334 | 14.6¢ | $502 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 191,746 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 466 | 83.7¢ | $366 | — |
| kekkone0x39d0…4fe8 | Yes | 1,650 | 23.4¢ | $355 | Proven+$6.31 per $100 · 1,908 bets |
| worknplay0x4201…6133 | Yes | 1,500 | 33.0¢ | $323 | Losing−$55.27 per $100 · 124 bets |
| GoldmanSachs0x71dd…d61c | Yes | 1,333 | 15.6¢ | $287 | Proven+$12.50 per $100 · 534 bets |
| 0x6992…6c1d | Yes | 1,287 | 21.6¢ | $277 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 670 bets |
| 0x08e6…e2f4 | Yes | 1,111 | 9.4¢ | $239 | — |
| NeverHold0x1a2d…f033 | Yes | 1,093 | 45.3¢ | $235 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 1,047 | 16.7¢ | $225 | Positive+$2.58 per $100 · 30,054+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 281 | 80.6¢ | $220 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| worldhappy0x0def…ab31 | Yes | 1,000 | 19.8¢ | $215 | — |
| 0x022c…4873 | Yes | 1,000 | 17.1¢ | $215 | — |
| 0x71e1…45f0 | Yes | 924 | 24.3¢ | $199 | Proven+$4.44 per $100 · 735 bets |
| danielbrod0xca76…d365 | No | 240 | 90.0¢ | $188 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 844 | 20.9¢ | $181 | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| ranks0010xeb81…423a | Yes | 800 | 18.0¢ | $172 | — |
| 4-testfollower-hm70xe694…7e7c | No | 212 | 81.1¢ | $167 | — |
| KimJonEn0x8152…bfda | Yes | 714 | 46.2¢ | $154 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 1,459 bets |
| genadiy3210x7b5d…a560 | No | 195 | 78.0¢ | $153 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 700 | 23.4¢ | $151 | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 29,886+ bets · updating |
| Fanthoz0xde53…bfb2 | Yes | 633 | 15.6¢ | $136 | — |
| 0x4eb0…6981 | Yes | 526 | 19.8¢ | $113 | — |
| eNakeVets0x3f3b…1d77 | No | 142 | 78.9¢ | $112 | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,563 bets |
| grinder10110xeed7…16b2 | Yes | 505 | 9.4¢ | $109 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 356 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 138 | 58.7¢ | $109 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | Yes | 500 | 25.0¢ | $108 | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 2,393 bets |
| Vodka-0x7842…4d91 | Yes | 500 | 25.0¢ | $108 | — |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | Yes | 500 | 25.0¢ | $108 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| lIllIIl0x6dce…4490 | Yes | 500 | 30.0¢ | $107 | — |
| rousseauuu0x47c1…825f | Yes | 400 | 14.0¢ | $86 | — |
| 0x700a…1f41 | Yes | 373 | 9.8¢ | $80 | — |
| 0x0cd5…71a4 | No | 95 | 85.1¢ | $75 | — |
| 0x9e24…7e71 | Yes | 336 | 16.1¢ | $72 | Proven+$2.42 per $100 · 701 bets |
| rocky420150x2c1a…42d8 | Yes | 299 | 22.0¢ | $64 | — |
| mvp740x50f4…5e6a | Yes | 269 | 19.5¢ | $58 | Positive+$5.06 per $100 · 350 bets |
| Ditto3210x30c1…9f91 | Yes | 250 | 27.0¢ | $54 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 632 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 215 | 22.8¢ | $46 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| lil.b0x86b7…7d35 | Yes | 200 | 14.6¢ | $43 | — |
| kaoyan0xbbaa…a28e | Yes | 200 | 19.8¢ | $43 | — |
| anciano0xa8b7…ee3c | Yes | 191 | 37.5¢ | $41 | Break-even−$0.07 per $100 · 6,243 bets |
| Hugopari0x7804…2d8e | No | 50 | 75.0¢ | $39 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 50 | 87.0¢ | $39 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| manicweather0x5568…9ea3 | No | 44 | 67.0¢ | $35 | — |
| deniseprice0xdadd…0443 | No | 35 | 74.0¢ | $28 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 33 | 78.7¢ | $26 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 90 | 21.2¢ | $19 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | No | 19 | 86.7¢ | $15 | — |
| massuod830xd638…02b6 | Yes | 50 | 21.4¢ | $11 | — |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 13 | 77.0¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 21,994 bets |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 13 | 76.3¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x52d7…3849 | No | 11 | 87.6¢ | $9 | — |
| Sergey22330xc493…78a5 | No | 11 | 87.6¢ | $8 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 10 | 78.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| lll981kd0x33c4…4ad5 | No | 10 | 80.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$2.22 per $100 · 3,971 bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 69.0¢ | $8 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 10 | 70.0¢ | $8 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 10 | 91.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| Itami0x9180…fb11 | No | 8 | 62.2¢ | $6 | — |
| Schmiegelow0x9eb9…3ed3 | No | 8 | 74.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x987e…c3bd | No | 7 | 75.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xe010…5147 | No | 5 | 53.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x29f0…b56f | No | 5 | 92.1¢ | $4 | — |
| krootz0x450e…4fdd | No | 5 | 65.1¢ | $4 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | No | 5 | 91.4¢ | $4 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | No | 5 | 56.8¢ | $4 | — |
| data-sync0x21ad…10d2 | No | 4 | 86.0¢ | $3 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 4 | 71.8¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0x63eb…c368 | No | 3 | 58.2¢ | $3 | — |
| yo20000x6417…8279 | No | 3 | 79.8¢ | $2 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 3 | 78.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 1 | 90.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.