Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LulaVaiPerder0x7f9e…3a0e | Yes | 48,232 | 92.0¢ | $44.6K | Proven+$9.82 per $100 · 435 bets |
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | Yes | 3,637 | 92.0¢ | $3.36K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| sbimbg0xf519…906b | Yes | 3,352 | 91.0¢ | $3.1K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 7,044 bets |
| laureman0x1359…092e | Yes | 2,985 | 90.7¢ | $2.76K | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 112 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 2,222 | 91.0¢ | $2.06K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,264 bets |
| tennisclub0x479d…d469 | Yes | 2,000 | 92.0¢ | $1.85K | New40 settled bets |
| timetowander0x58b3…653c | No | 20,000 | 8.0¢ | $1.5K | Positive+$3.25 per $100 · 1,504 bets |
| 2KTrade0xbde4…6109 | Yes | 1,052 | 91.9¢ | $973 | New76 settled bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | No | 12,730 | 8.2¢ | $955 | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 1,000 | 91.0¢ | $925 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 1,000 | 91.0¢ | $925 | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| Wowiwow0xe54b…aa14 | Yes | 997 | 92.0¢ | $922 | — |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 7,788 | 8.0¢ | $584 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,389 bets |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | Yes | 553 | 91.0¢ | $512 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 914 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 500 | 92.0¢ | $463 | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | No | 5,000 | 8.0¢ | $375 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| Jet90x8705…8354 | Yes | 400 | 91.0¢ | $370 | Proven+$8.39 per $100 · 490 bets |
| caaeth0x2f76…7bcc | No | 4,000 | 8.5¢ | $300 | — |
| necristiro0xa05c…aa9b | Yes | 300 | 91.7¢ | $278 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 838 bets |
| ULYSSES180x9ef5…5d4f | Yes | 250 | 92.0¢ | $231 | Break-even+$0.29 per $100 · 342 bets |
| TestingMyGangster0x3a51…fd7f | No | 3,000 | 8.0¢ | $225 | Losing−$4.14 per $100 · 133 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 3,000 | 8.0¢ | $225 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| frenchflair50x2ce9…5fc6 | Yes | 220 | 92.0¢ | $203 | New46 settled bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 2,000 | 8.0¢ | $150 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| SuSuDORIS0xfadb…5645 | No | 1,900 | 8.9¢ | $143 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 1,469 | 10.0¢ | $110 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| u289260xe682…a082 | Yes | 109 | 92.0¢ | $101 | Positive+$1.00 per $100 · 430 bets |
| jklsjdwoqejasdf0x05df…882d | No | 1,132 | 9.0¢ | $85 | Proven+$4.26 per $100 · 299 bets |
| Heyo02920x3e9b…a0ec | No | 1,111 | 9.0¢ | $83 | — |
| 0x7500…567f | No | 1,018 | 9.5¢ | $76 | Positive+$7.54 per $100 · 1,726 bets |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | Yes | 76 | 92.0¢ | $70 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| Lastworld130x0c18…a04c | No | 909 | 11.0¢ | $68 | Losing−$20.23 per $100 · 426 bets |
| 0x7678…22a3 | Yes | 60 | 83.0¢ | $56 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | No | 722 | 8.0¢ | $54 | Positive+$3.65 per $100 · 14,505 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 51 | 90.0¢ | $47 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| omsode0x82bd…335e | Yes | 50 | 60.0¢ | $46 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 600 | 13.5¢ | $45 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| vravroum0xe434…efb0 | Yes | 46 | 92.0¢ | $43 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 532 | 15.3¢ | $40 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 42 | 92.0¢ | $39 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| SaturnStormCube0xad52…11ac | No | 500 | 11.0¢ | $38 | Proven+$5.83 per $100 · 3,598 bets |
| whaleP10x5b1d…8895 | Yes | 40 | 92.0¢ | $37 | — |
| frenchflair20xea2d…d8ba | Yes | 38 | 92.0¢ | $35 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 38 | 92.0¢ | $35 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| 0x6196…6208 | No | 361 | 8.3¢ | $27 | — |
| pioneers20260xa5c7…7e7b | Yes | 26 | 91.0¢ | $24 | — |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 300 | 8.0¢ | $23 | — |
| Ballotglass0x52d6…51e3 | Yes | 24 | 85.0¢ | $22 | — |
| spirited01270x4aea…faae | Yes | 23 | 91.0¢ | $21 | — |
| sanlitou2026p10x7a8e…89d8 | Yes | 21 | 92.0¢ | $19 | — |
| 0x7b64…8440 | Yes | 18 | 92.0¢ | $16 | — |
| ifyouloveme0x5a0d…fa97 | No | 212 | 25.0¢ | $16 | Positive+$2.57 per $100 · 549 bets |
| 0x13f5…e9a7 | Yes | 15 | 92.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.14 per $100 · 3,904 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | No | 148 | 12.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 146 | 13.7¢ | $11 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| Blueynbingo0x52aa…42a2 | Yes | 11 | 89.7¢ | $10 | — |
| Teleben0x5601…f8c4 | Yes | 11 | 92.0¢ | $10 | — |
| neskipa0xc289…04f1 | Yes | 11 | 93.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x8395…a8d8 | Yes | 9 | 92.0¢ | $8 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 102 | 9.0¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | No | 102 | 8.5¢ | $8 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0x3929…0f19 | No | 100 | 11.0¢ | $8 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | No | 100 | 7.5¢ | $8 | — |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | Yes | 7 | 92.9¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xd87c…bd1f | Yes | 6 | 92.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Pilagi0x301f…3609 | Yes | 5 | 92.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xb12c…b8c6 | Yes | 5 | 93.5¢ | $5 | — |
| hamid19190x3cbe…2520 | Yes | 5 | 92.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xa0c7cA3805C0x4f63…5bbc | Yes | 5 | 89.0¢ | $5 | — |
| alivedeer0xe0c5…913c | Yes | 5 | 89.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$12.71 per $100 · 427 bets |
| BAYBOT0xf8db…fec8 | Yes | 5 | 93.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x9140…f62c | No | 54 | 9.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 50 | 8.0¢ | $4 | — |
| JakeBeez0x25b9…3058 | No | 50 | 10.0¢ | $4 | — |
| koninginhetuniverse0xa579…aad0 | No | 50 | 9.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.28 per $100 · 2,326 bets |
| Nbest550xdaa6…3e62 | No | 50 | 18.0¢ | $4 | — |
| etghzcer0x7b89…ddae | No | 48 | 14.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Fuadkrm70x77d5…eace | No | 30 | 10.0¢ | $2 | — |
| zhoulifeng0x785c…f7e5 | No | 30 | 8.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xcb67…cb63 | Yes | 2 | 92.0¢ | $2 | — |
| codexxxx0x72a1…c5e4 | Yes | 2 | 92.0¢ | $2 | — |
| stra-h220x92c8…ebd8 | No | 23 | 8.6¢ | $2 | — |
| sdssds0x813f…26ec | No | 23 | 15.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x0b89…db3d | No | 17 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 1 | 92.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| 0x2650…44f7 | Yes | 1 | 92.9¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 13.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| ngok9960xe1a9…339e | No | 10 | 14.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | No | 6 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| smashingavocado0xcdc7…6bde | No | 6 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | No | 5 | 11.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$10.47 per $100 · 49,814+ bets · updating |
| 0x43c6…69f9 | No | 5 | 17.0¢ | $0 | — |
| polijet0x9268…fb13 | No | 5 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | No | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 8.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| CT-test0x5ad6…d276 | No | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 220 shares each side · Show
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