Market · 5 of 6 outcomes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:50 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
12 proven traders are on Yes, 15 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | No | 14,966 | 58.7¢ | $8.61K | Proven+$5.21 per $100 · 2,232 bets |
| rerevervadae4r3453214tpermdr43fvd0x09cc…421a | Yes | 14,900 | 38.7¢ | $6.33K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 12,570 | 40.2¢ | $5.34K | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 11,240 | 45.4¢ | $4.78K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 7,000 | 55.4¢ | $4.03K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 6,924 | 52.4¢ | $3.98K | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 5,561 | 57.9¢ | $3.2K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| Justin2170x64c3…d720 | No | 5,468 | 67.6¢ | $3.14K | Proven+$13.81 per $100 · 171 bets |
| 0xd640…480c | Yes | 6,886 | 42.7¢ | $2.93K | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | No | 4,774 | 45.0¢ | $2.74K | Positive+$12.78 per $100 · 405 bets |
| MrNoItAll0x836f…906e | No | 4,574 | 63.2¢ | $2.63K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 499 bets |
| cashy0x8f42…b88f | No | 4,444 | 62.0¢ | $2.56K | Proven+$11.86 per $100 · 1,051 bets |
| nope30500x6114…cff0 | No | 4,000 | 57.0¢ | $2.3K | Losing−$1.97 per $100 · 100 bets |
| 0x0b91…ae77 | No | 3,700 | 58.0¢ | $2.13K | Proven+$10.22 per $100 · 659 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 5,005 | 43.0¢ | $2.13K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,713 bets |
| SquirrelTheMerchant0xfb59…83f9 | Yes | 4,469 | 40.4¢ | $1.9K | Proven+$19.44 per $100 · 263 bets |
| longnhi9xx0x45f8…c554 | No | 3,000 | 63.0¢ | $1.73K | New61 settled bets |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 3,000 | 55.5¢ | $1.72K | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| pilipro30x33e2…3a1b | Yes | 3,892 | 43.0¢ | $1.65K | Positive+$1.70 per $100 · 1,031 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 3,888 | 43.4¢ | $1.65K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,267 bets |
| VRVTeam0xe700…7005 | Yes | 3,800 | 39.8¢ | $1.61K | Positive+$20.63 per $100 · 101 bets |
| Myway0x52f9…e1c7 | Yes | 3,662 | 41.0¢ | $1.56K | Proven+$8.03 per $100 · 313 bets |
| PolMatt0x5e9d…e88b | Yes | 3,034 | 41.6¢ | $1.29K | New65 settled bets |
| Tian-Wen0x66c1…fa3f | No | 1,999 | 63.2¢ | $1.15K | Proven+$12.74 per $100 · 3,546 bets |
| 74-750x7803…b7d2 | Yes | 2,427 | 42.0¢ | $1.03K | New58 settled bets |
| 0xa50c…f75d | No | 1,695 | 59.0¢ | $975 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 1,691 | 57.3¢ | $973 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | Yes | 2,000 | 40.0¢ | $850 | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| scorp02120x778b…4e2d | No | 1,362 | 59.8¢ | $783 | New67 settled bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 1,807 | 48.8¢ | $768 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| 0x36da…907b | No | 1,301 | 60.7¢ | $748 | Break-even−$0.98 per $100 · 399 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | No | 1,154 | 57.7¢ | $663 | Positive+$7.23 per $100 · 10,676 bets |
| 0opj4kuu4xb20x3500…07f0 | No | 983 | 61.4¢ | $565 | Losing−$12.60 per $100 · 4,915 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 952 | 57.5¢ | $547 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | Yes | 1,225 | 41.1¢ | $521 | Proven+$3.19 per $100 · 465 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 1,000 | 43.2¢ | $425 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 847 | 47.4¢ | $360 | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| dfupagain0x768f…c7bd | No | 600 | 58.0¢ | $345 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 1,358 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 793 | 43.8¢ | $337 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 743 bets |
| Mikelaawrey0x6bc7…4ad4 | No | 562 | 60.6¢ | $323 | Proven+$66.61 per $100 · 500 bets |
| Mahnic0xdf34…dc86 | No | 537 | 63.3¢ | $309 | — |
| GammaSqueeze12340xb25d…d127 | No | 537 | 60.0¢ | $309 | New79 settled bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | No | 507 | 57.6¢ | $292 | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| 0nk0nf0rm0d0xb93e…195e | No | 500 | 60.7¢ | $288 | — |
| RdogTest0x9908…062c | Yes | 635 | 40.7¢ | $270 | — |
| CT-test0x5ad6…d276 | No | 434 | 59.2¢ | $250 | New32 settled bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 547 | 39.8¢ | $232 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 400 | 63.0¢ | $230 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| dumbmoney1870xa2c8…9ca4 | No | 400 | 42.0¢ | $230 | — |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | No | 400 | 57.0¢ | $230 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| mamai0xabbe…8f37 | Yes | 515 | 44.6¢ | $219 | Losing−$7.39 per $100 · 667 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 376 | 62.0¢ | $216 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 500 | 29.0¢ | $213 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 352 | 56.2¢ | $202 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| DawnOfYemen0xc34a…6007 | No | 350 | 59.7¢ | $201 | Proven+$3.27 per $100 · 1,824 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 450 | 45.0¢ | $191 | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 3,050 bets |
| sqaolkytrpoi0xd6dd…98ee | Yes | 442 | 46.4¢ | $188 | Proven+$5.99 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| SDODNDPD0x3458…b5a7 | No | 299 | 67.0¢ | $172 | Positive+$1.22 per $100 · 3,308 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 400 | 39.1¢ | $170 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| nmnr0xcb86…feda | Yes | 339 | 40.3¢ | $144 | — |
| Sikkifweflles0x995c…8770 | Yes | 329 | 42.6¢ | $140 | — |
| AnonSequitur0xd7ee…0e97 | No | 230 | 62.0¢ | $132 | — |
| MMIWW0xb0ba…b3f9 | No | 210 | 59.6¢ | $121 | — |
| 0x7f6d…f6f6 | No | 203 | 61.2¢ | $116 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 273 bets |
| Performance0x17c1…3799 | No | 200 | 60.0¢ | $115 | New22 settled bets |
| ttyyu0x34c7…e73f | No | 200 | 61.0¢ | $115 | New54 settled bets |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | No | 200 | 57.1¢ | $115 | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 6,509 bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | No | 199 | 59.1¢ | $114 | New60 settled bets |
| 0xeffe…5efa | No | 175 | 57.0¢ | $101 | New85 settled bets |
| 0x0314…2f6d | No | 172 | 60.6¢ | $99 | Proven+$2.06 per $100 · 378 bets |
| 0xc5bf…6271 | Yes | 233 | 43.2¢ | $99 | — |
| defoncetout0x526d…fb92 | No | 169 | 59.0¢ | $97 | New78 settled bets |
| c4mel0xb2ca…dc6d | No | 169 | 59.0¢ | $97 | — |
| MagnusHolm1230x0347…dcd8 | Yes | 229 | 43.6¢ | $97 | New22 settled bets |
| 0xb502…30b9 | No | 168 | 59.6¢ | $96 | — |
| Topramen0x675c…2224 | No | 167 | 60.0¢ | $96 | Losing−$22.05 per $100 · 313 bets |
| Kravada0x17e0…a8c0 | No | 158 | 61.4¢ | $91 | New34 settled bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 196 | 43.0¢ | $83 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| The-Defect0xac6a…2ed3 | Yes | 156 | 43.9¢ | $66 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 139 | 40.8¢ | $59 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| wwuuuu0xbc47…15d4 | Yes | 120 | 39.0¢ | $51 | — |
| 0xd794…b95e | Yes | 116 | 43.0¢ | $49 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 107 | 29.0¢ | $46 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 79 | 58.0¢ | $45 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 817 bets |
| 0x2db7…8f9b | Yes | 100 | 43.0¢ | $43 | Proven+$8.35 per $100 · 335 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 81 | 42.5¢ | $34 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| ppoouu0x0b98…d5d8 | Yes | 80 | 39.0¢ | $34 | New74 settled bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 78 | 42.8¢ | $33 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Ramonstone0x374e…0a84 | Yes | 77 | 39.0¢ | $33 | New32 settled bets |
| mr.lame0xb9a8…7df4 | Yes | 65 | 39.0¢ | $28 | — |
| Rainless0x9d5e…3921 | Yes | 64 | 39.2¢ | $27 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 42.0¢ | $21 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| DidYKH0xd16b…36c0 | Yes | 47 | 43.0¢ | $20 | — |
| hping020x9e25…afd6 | No | 34 | 62.0¢ | $20 | — |
| cabbag0x2af1…d858 | No | 13 | 54.7¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 274 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 10 | 60.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 6.91K shares each side · Show
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