Market · 6 of 6 outcomes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:37 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
9 proven traders are on Yes, 11 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRVTeam0xe700…7005 | No | 14,615 | 67.0¢ | $9.57K | Positive+$20.63 per $100 · 101 bets |
| rerevervadae4r3453214tpermdr43fvd0x09cc…421a | Yes | 20,459 | 36.5¢ | $7.06K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 7,104 | 51.7¢ | $4.65K | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 13,310 | 37.9¢ | $4.59K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | No | 6,000 | 55.9¢ | $3.93K | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | No | 5,961 | 69.0¢ | $3.9K | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 5,566 | 62.7¢ | $3.65K | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,254 bets |
| SquirrelTheMerchant0xfb59…83f9 | Yes | 9,382 | 31.9¢ | $3.24K | Proven+$19.44 per $100 · 263 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | No | 4,025 | 66.8¢ | $2.64K | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,931 bets |
| Hossein-m0xd726…b5c9 | No | 3,500 | 55.8¢ | $2.29K | — |
| Vecellio0xc173…20f5 | Yes | 6,198 | 48.4¢ | $2.14K | — |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 5,684 | 39.1¢ | $1.96K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 1,990 | 66.1¢ | $1.3K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| 0x36da…907b | No | 1,899 | 67.5¢ | $1.24K | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| SDODNDPD0x3458…b5a7 | No | 1,505 | 66.4¢ | $986 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 3,300 bets |
| drakelong0x12d5…f0eb | Yes | 2,766 | 33.0¢ | $954 | — |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 1,377 | 66.0¢ | $902 | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,183 | 64.4¢ | $775 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 2,192 | 34.6¢ | $756 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| justT0xbfe2…1913 | No | 1,015 | 64.8¢ | $665 | New39 settled bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 970 | 65.8¢ | $635 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 1,799 | 24.1¢ | $621 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,042 bets |
| felon230x54ff…5cd2 | No | 837 | 51.0¢ | $548 | — |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | No | 800 | 66.5¢ | $524 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | No | 667 | 64.0¢ | $437 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 557 | 66.0¢ | $365 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 1,000 | 31.8¢ | $345 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| scorp02120x778b…4e2d | No | 512 | 56.0¢ | $335 | New67 settled bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 500 | 69.2¢ | $328 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,170 bets |
| CHIKI330xff52…4546 | No | 500 | 50.0¢ | $328 | — |
| sqaolkytrpoi0xd6dd…98ee | No | 442 | 53.4¢ | $289 | Proven+$5.99 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| Mikelaawrey0x6bc7…4ad4 | No | 428 | 67.9¢ | $280 | — |
| Reidd0x7a0d…53f7 | No | 400 | 66.0¢ | $262 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | Yes | 727 | 33.8¢ | $251 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 809 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | No | 373 | 66.6¢ | $244 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| nellojello0xa8ae…8eb7 | No | 320 | 53.0¢ | $210 | Proven+$10.19 per $100 · 305 bets |
| leong3080x02f7…cef2 | Yes | 588 | 34.0¢ | $203 | — |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | No | 307 | 65.6¢ | $201 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| 0x8b5a…b95d | No | 300 | 68.0¢ | $197 | Losing−$24.53 per $100 · 517 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 291 | 65.0¢ | $190 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| 0xa957…50e4 | No | 271 | 68.2¢ | $178 | New18 settled bets |
| 15billionplus0x6406…bc04 | No | 257 | 66.0¢ | $168 | — |
| shat200xe8f0…0ca5 | No | 212 | 65.1¢ | $139 | — |
| LongShot-Louie0xbfbb…dc2b | Yes | 400 | 31.0¢ | $138 | Break-even−$0.39 per $100 · 607 bets |
| Dima790xdd5a…4d23 | No | 202 | 49.5¢ | $132 | Positive+$1.95 per $100 · 443 bets |
| runclawd0x4af5…0048 | No | 202 | 52.0¢ | $132 | — |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | No | 200 | 65.0¢ | $131 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 6,486 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 200 | 58.5¢ | $131 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 871 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 200 | 67.0¢ | $131 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| Legacy.crypto0x9dfb…e887 | No | 187 | 68.9¢ | $122 | — |
| Hadikhan690xbb5e…b8c7 | No | 187 | 53.4¢ | $122 | — |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | Yes | 338 | 29.6¢ | $116 | — |
| sevenele0x06dc…ba00 | Yes | 326 | 33.0¢ | $112 | — |
| 2020xb0x263a…f5aa | No | 169 | 65.0¢ | $111 | — |
| Jad850x1e3b…b1cc | No | 168 | 65.4¢ | $110 | — |
| pizzahatd0xcbb1…8d22 | No | 162 | 65.0¢ | $106 | — |
| 0xfc2f…10c7 | Yes | 300 | 34.0¢ | $103 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,149 bets |
| 0xc6e1…3b95 | Yes | 300 | 34.7¢ | $103 | Losing−$1.60 per $100 · 431 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 154 | 66.1¢ | $101 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xc5bf…6271 | Yes | 278 | 36.2¢ | $96 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 140 | 70.0¢ | $92 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| GidGud0x4867…a6f8 | Yes | 260 | 59.0¢ | $90 | Losing−$1.67 per $100 · 2,793 bets |
| 0x3c34…3d3e | No | 133 | 60.0¢ | $87 | — |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5 | Yes | 250 | 29.0¢ | $86 | — |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 249 | 42.9¢ | $86 | Losing−$4.93 per $100 · 738 bets |
| adasol0x5297…7b99 | Yes | 246 | 34.4¢ | $85 | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 486 bets |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | No | 120 | 66.5¢ | $79 | Proven+$3.15 per $100 · 460 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 114 | 68.8¢ | $75 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 211 | 37.2¢ | $73 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 107 | 69.0¢ | $70 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | Yes | 200 | 36.0¢ | $69 | — |
| donutputin0xa144…fc6c | Yes | 200 | 36.0¢ | $69 | — |
| cabbag0x2af1…d858 | Yes | 199 | 29.5¢ | $69 | — |
| ferraracesare0x5aa0…c2d1 | No | 100 | 67.0¢ | $66 | — |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | No | 99 | 57.0¢ | $65 | New60 settled bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 146 | 40.7¢ | $50 | — |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Yes | 115 | 32.1¢ | $40 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 22,018 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 91 | 30.3¢ | $31 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| fashioncentre0x07a1…5e8f | Yes | 82 | 35.0¢ | $28 | — |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | Yes | 63 | 41.0¢ | $22 | — |
| lausch0xa75d…97c0 | Yes | 59 | 34.0¢ | $20 | — |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 58 | 34.0¢ | $20 | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| 0x8dd1…7b92 | Yes | 58 | 31.0¢ | $20 | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | Yes | 50 | 56.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| Rainless0x9d5e…3921 | Yes | 45 | 33.0¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x961f…135c | Yes | 41 | 32.0¢ | $14 | — |
| PcMYjCcPrd5yb35I0xb4e5…b668 | Yes | 40 | 34.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Norso210x17fc…caf4 | Yes | 31 | 32.2¢ | $11 | — |
| jinwujinshu0x06fb…9713 | Yes | 30 | 35.0¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.50 per $100 · 895 bets |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | Yes | 30 | 34.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| DidYKH0xd16b…36c0 | Yes | 29 | 34.0¢ | $10 | — |
| mmtrading0x5a0c…9db8 | Yes | 29 | 34.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x6551…248d | Yes | 28 | 36.0¢ | $10 | — |
| vikpat0xfc78…fb5d | Yes | 25 | 40.0¢ | $9 | — |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 20 | 30.0¢ | $7 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| lulu2130xa25e…2dd7 | Yes | 20 | 29.9¢ | $7 | — |
| NickLWorth0x8e82…5fad | Yes | 20 | 34.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Glicha0x91ff…8f40 | Yes | 20 | 34.0¢ | $7 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 60 shares each side · Show
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