Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 10:30 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 1,254 | 73.5¢ | $959 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 1,004 | 77.0¢ | $768 |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 900 | 76.8¢ | $689 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 776 | 67.8¢ | $593 | Proven+$2.87 per $100 · 306 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 2,103 | 25.7¢ | $494 | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | No | 554 | 76.0¢ | $424 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| 0xae56…a727 | No | 423 | 78.0¢ | $324 | — |
| TUKARUL0xd175…46ef | Yes | 1,062 | 28.2¢ | $250 | New24 settled bets |
| ynadinsky0x2ff6…7c7b | No | 260 | 77.0¢ | $199 | New51 settled bets |
| lufei888880xa927…4847 | Yes | 741 | 27.0¢ | $174 | — |
| kanhaoleaha0xd98a…4db0 | No | 220 | 73.9¢ | $168 | — |
| Bla-4850x70f8…7fb5 | No | 200 | 51.0¢ | $153 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 443 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 389 | 27.5¢ | $91 | Proven+$2.01 per $100 · 20,221 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 351 | 23.4¢ | $82 | Positive+$7.48 per $100 · 10,703 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 100 | 76.0¢ | $77 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| Mirotadze0xb462…fc89 | No | 100 | 80.0¢ | $77 | — |
| 0x6abe…d6a5 | No | 100 | 72.0¢ | $76 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 990 bets |
| 0x5797…fbbf | Yes | 243 | 23.0¢ | $57 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 59 | 75.6¢ | $45 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,994 bets |
| ForeverRed0xa577…b06a | No | 55 | 73.1¢ | $42 | — |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 167 | 21.0¢ | $39 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 141 | 28.4¢ | $33 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| 0xd809…7785 | No | 40 | 77.0¢ | $31 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 125 | 25.0¢ | $29 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,081 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | Yes | 100 | 21.0¢ | $24 | Proven+$5.90 per $100 · 1,217 bets |
| YJiICTUsGi0x4157…5474 | Yes | 100 | 29.0¢ | $24 | — |
| Yeshoua7770xda8a…2dba | Yes | 93 | 27.0¢ | $22 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 72 | 27.1¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,922 bets |
| 0x40fe…3bfd | No | 20 | 76.0¢ | $15 | — |
| DCB19910x15aa…ff02 | No | 20 | 76.0¢ | $15 | — |
| santiagoo940xeba4…fc1d | Yes | 54 | 27.6¢ | $13 | — |
| Orvexis0x982e…9103 | No | 16 | 61.0¢ | $13 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 50 | 35.0¢ | $12 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 195,024 bets |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 49 | 23.0¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.32 per $100 · 3,316 bets |
| Frost000xb51e…0bd5 | No | 14 | 69.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Winwin1490xc5d5…337c | Yes | 47 | 21.3¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x3c42…2adc | No | 13 | 78.0¢ | $10 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 41 | 23.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| jzr090x3d3a…53ff | No | 11 | 61.0¢ | $9 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | Yes | 33 | 30.0¢ | $8 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 71.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 6,492 bets |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | Yes | 30 | 39.0¢ | $7 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 22 | 24.3¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| edge9990xab44…c994 | Yes | 20 | 38.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Lightpass0xa687…53a5 | Yes | 20 | 48.0¢ | $5 | — |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | No | 5 | 65.0¢ | $4 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 5 | 74.9¢ | $3 | Losing−$3.04 per $100 · 5,169 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 15 | 22.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,781 bets |
| mangostein0x544f…4cb9 | No | 3 | 70.0¢ | $3 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | Yes | 10 | 27.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.02 per $100 · 7,693 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | Yes | 10 | 27.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 7,441 bets |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | Yes | 10 | 25.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 10 | 27.3¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.01 per $100 · 106,178+ bets · updating |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | Yes | 10 | 25.0¢ | $2 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | Yes | 10 | 25.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | Yes | 8 | 25.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.28 per $100 · 3,608 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 2 | 61.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| JigleBell0xef42…b1f7 | Yes | 7 | 28.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 5 | 26.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$4.15 per $100 · 8,815 bets |
| rar1110x1bb7…543b | Yes | 5 | 23.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.24 per $100 · 242 bets |
| Questionmark130x5fca…8c0c | Yes | 4 | 23.0¢ | $1 | New9 settled bets |
| Legacy9703210xc271…1708 | No | 1 | 75.0¢ | $1 | — |
| thunderquack0x07fd…ad26 | No | 1 | 76.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$5.92 per $100 · 622 bets |
| 2fhormoz0xb73b…d885 | Yes | 4 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | No | 1 | 77.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.64 per $100 · 14,872 bets |
| yo20000x6417…8279 | Yes | 2 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Assura0x19a6…1cec | Yes | 2 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | No | 0 | 71.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 1 | 29.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 22,947 bets |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | 1 | 25.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 0 | 73.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hokinado0xffee…ea6b | Yes | 1 | 49.0¢ | $0 | — |
| cloverpmq20xbb10…523d | Yes | 0 | 39.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 77.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 72.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 72.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 23.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 0 | 23.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
| 0x00cd…c0ae | Yes | 0 | 31.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.04 per $100 · 4,142 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 1 shares each side · Show
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